نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• نوراله نورانی ¹
• محمدهادی غنی یگانه ²
• هادی قائمی ³

¹ استادیار گروه مطالعات پایه و روش‌شناسی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، تهران، ایران

² دانشجوی دکتری پژوهشگری امنیت، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، تهران، ایران

³ دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم اجتماعی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مشارکت سیاسی از جمله انواع مشارکت است که همواره مورد توجه اندیشمندان و متفکران جامعه‌شناس و سیاست‌پژوه بوده است. آمارهای چند سال اخیر نشان از فراز و نشیب میزان مشارکت سیاسی در ایران به‌ویژه در زمینه مشارکت در انتخابات دارد. به‌گونه‌ای که روند مشارکت در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری از 85 درصد در سال 1388 به 49 درصد در سال 1400 نزول پیدا کرده و مشارکت در انتخابات مجلس شورای اسلامی نیز از 64 درصد در سال 1390 به 41 درصد در سال 1402 کاهش یافته است. از این‌رو مهم‌ترین پرسش آن است که چه عواملی بر مشارکت سیاسی شهروندان تهرانی تاثیر دارد تا از طریق شناخت این عوامل به علل کاهش این کنش سیاسی پی برد. در این مقاله تلاش شده از طریق روش فراتحلیل تمامی تحقیقات مطالعات علمی مرتبط با این حوزه که طی 10 سال اخیر انجام پذیرفته‌اند، پرسش پژوهش پاسخ داده شود. در نتیجه تحلیل صورت گرفته مشخص شد به ترتیب عوامل فرهنگی با اندازه اثر 374/0 عوامل سیاسی با اندازه اثر 334/0 عوامل فناوری با اندازه اثر 318/0 عوامل اجتماعی با اندازه اثر 264/0 و عوامل اقتصادی با اندازه اثر 217/0 دارای بیشترین تاثیر بر مشارکت سیاسی شهروندان تهرانی هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مشارکت
• مشارکت سیاسی
• انتخابات
• فراتحلیل
• عوامل مشارکت

موضوعات

• جامعه شناسی سیاسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Meta-Analysis of Key Factors Influencing Political Participation of Tehrani Citizens Over a Ten-Year Period

نویسندگان [English]

• Nourallah Nourani ¹
• Mohammad Hadi Ghani Yeganeh ²
• Hadi Ghaemi ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Basic Studies and Methodology, Institute for Strategic Studies, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D Student, Security Research, Research Institute of Strategic Studies, Tehran, Iran

³ LLM,, Security Research, Research Institute of Strategic Studies, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
In today’s world, participation is widely recognized as a key factor in driving the growth and progress of society. Broad and inclusive social participation generates a powerful force—one that originates from within the community and is characterized by its voluntary nature—which can play a crucial role in achieving societal goals and progress. As a result, many societies engage in strategic planning to create opportunities for voluntary participation in various fields, aiming to activate and harness this influential social force. In this context, participation can be understood as a process rooted in the principle of equality. It fosters collective thinking and cooperation within society, ultimately enhancing qualitative and quantitative aspects of human life across social, economic, and political dimensions. Considering the declining trend in the political participation of the citizens of Tehran province in terms of participation in the elections, maybe this downward trend will continue in the future. It is likely that the declining trend in political participation among the citizens of Tehran Province—particularly in election turnout—will continue in the future. It is thus essential to examine and identify the underlying causes of this political behavior. In fact, meaningful recommendations and planning can only be achieved when the phenomenon is scientifically understood, which requires a detailed description followed by an analysis of its root causes. In this respect, the present study aimed to identify the key factors influencing political participation among the citizens of Tehran Province, using a meta-analysis of all relevant research conducted over the past ten years. The objective was to establish a solid scientific foundation for developing informed solutions.
Literature Review
The review focused on the studies that concerned political participation within Iranian society, as well as aimed at identifying the factors influencing this political action. A body of relevant literature was compiled and considered as primary studies in the meta-analysis. None of these studies were meta-analyses, and no individual study was found that specifically conducted a meta-analysis on the key factors influencing political participation. Therefore, the present research represents an innovative and original contribution in designing and conducting the analysis.
Materials and Methods
As a quantitative and explanatory inquiry, the current study followed an inductive approach to examine the factors influencing political participation. The statistical population of this study included all theses, journal articles, and research studies published between 2017 and 2018 and related to the factors influencing political participation in Tehran. A meta-analysis worksheet designed by the researcher was used to collect and synthesize the data. The worksheet included the following information: 1) name(s) of the researcher(s), 2) year of publication, 3) statistical population, 4) sample size, 5) data analysis method, and 6) statistical values and significance levels. For data analysis, the meta-analysis employed descriptive statistics, effect size statistics, heterogeneity tests, fixed and random effects models, and assessments of publication bias. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software was used to perform the data analysis.
Results and Discussion
Among the influential factors, cultural factors had the highest combined effect size at 0.374. According to Cohen’s criterion, this represents a moderate effect, indicating that cultural factors were the most significant contributors to political participation among Tehrani citizens over the past ten years. Among the influential factors, cultural factors had the highest combined effect size at 0.374. According to Cohen’s criterion, this represents a moderate effect, indicating that cultural factors were the most significant contributors to political participation among Tehran’s citizens in the ten-year period. Within this category, religiosity shows the strongest positive influence with a Fisher’s Z value of 0.612, while religious flexibility has the strongest negative influence with a Fisher’s Z value of -0.236. Following cultural factors, political factors rank second with a combined effect size of 0.334, suggesting that political factors played a major role in shaping political participation in Tehran. Among these, the variable political family has the most positive influence (Fisher’s Z = 0.608), while the feeling of powerlessness shows the most negative influence (Fisher’s Z = -0.409) on citizens’ political participation in Tehran. Technological factors rank third, with an effect size of 0.318, indicating a moderate impact on the political participation of Tehrani citizens during the ten years. Among the technological variables, the use of radio and television news for obtaining political information has the most positive influence, with a Fisher’s Z value of 0.675. In contrast, the variable the amount of use of virtual space has the most negative influence, with a Fisher’s Z value of 0.238, suggesting that increased reliance on virtual platforms may be associated with reduced political participation among Tehrani citizens. Social factors rank fourth in terms of influence. According to the findings of the meta-analysis, social factors—with an effect size of 0.264—had a low impact on the political participation of Tehrani citizens in the analyzed period. Among the social variables, trust in social media shows the most positive influence, with a Fisher’s Z value of 0.633, while the variable diversity in socializing and friendships had the most negative influence, with a Fisher’s Z value of -0.430, on political participation in Tehran. Economic factors rank fifth, with an effect size of 0.214. According to Cohen’s criterion, this represents a low effect, suggesting that economic factors had the least impact on political participation among Tehrani citizens. 
Conclusion
The analysis revealed that cultural factors (effect size = 0.374), political factors (0.334), technological factors (0.318), social factors (0.264), and economic factors (0.217) had the greatest impact on the political participation of Tehrani citizens. According to the meta-analysis of research on political participation in Iranian society, all these categories—political, social, economic, technological, and cultural—show a significant relationship with political participation among Tehrani citizens. However, none of the effect sizes exceed 0.5. Among these, cultural factors had the highest combined effect size of 0.374, which, according to Cohen’s criterion, represents a moderate effect. Therefore, cultural factors can be considered the most influential in shaping political participation in Tehran during  0the ten-year period analyzed in this study. Within this category, religiosity had the strongest positive influence with a Fisher’s Z value of 0.612, while religious flexibility had the strongest negative influence, with a Fisher’s Z value of -0.236.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Participation
• Political Participation
• Elections
• Meta-analysis
• Participation Factors