نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• زکیه آفتابی ¹
• مراد کاویانی راد ²
• شیرخان انوری ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

² دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

³ دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

منابع آب مشترک در جهت‌دهی به مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورها نقش تعیین‎کننده‏ای دارند. سرچشمه رودخانه‌های هیرمند و هریررود در افغانستان است که به واسطه شیب زمین به سمت ایران سرازیر می‌شوند. از این‌رو افغانستان در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک با ایران، موقعیت بالادستی دارد. این پژوهش بر آن است که رویکرد کارگزاران افغان به‌عنوان متغیر موثر در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک این کشور با ایران را طی زمان بررسی کند. درون‏داد‌های مورد نیاز پژوهش با روش کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی گرد‌آوری شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد روند مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک دو کشور، همکاری در سطوح تبادلات و حمایت‌های کلامی و بیان سیاست‌های شفاهی؛ درگیری و کشمکش در سطوح گزاره‏های کلامی که نشان دهنده ناهماهنگی در تعامل و وجود تنش در کلام با طرف ایرانی است. متغیرهای نیاز افغانستان به منابع آب برای توسعه، سیاسی کردن آب توسط طرف ایرانی، خشکسالی‌های پیاپی و حیثیتی‌سازی آب برای مردم افغانستان عوامل کلیدی موثر بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک افغانستان با ایران از دیدگاه کارگزاران و خبرگان افغان شناسایی شد. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که همکاری‌های سازمان‌دهی شده اقتصادی بین دو کشور می‌تواند به ایجاد منافع پایدار و بهبود مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک دو کشور منجر شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک
• کارگزاران افغان
• منابع آب مشترک
• رودخانه هیرمند و هریررود

موضوعات

• روابط بین الملل

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Approach of Afghan Actors to Hydropolitical Relations With Iran: A Trend Analysis and Foresight Study

نویسندگان [English]

• Zakeyeh Aftabi ¹
• Morad Kaviani Rad ²
• Shirkhan Anwari ³

¹ Ph.D Student, Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

³ Ph.D Student, Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Water is fundamental to human development, as every society and political entity strives to improve both the quantity and quality of its water resources. Research shows that a sustainable and thriving human society cannot exist without reliable access to water. As a result, securing sustainable water resources has long been a strategic priority, shaping the decisions and actions of policymakers and leaders. Afghanistan, a predominantly mountainous country, is the source of several major rivers in South Asia that flow into neighboring countries. Among these, the Hirmand and Harirud rivers originate in Afghanistan and are vital to water security in eastern Iran. In recent decades, the construction of numerous dams on these rivers within Afghan territory has significantly reduced and disrupted the water flow into Iran. In response, Iranian negotiators have repeatedly sought to engage with Afghan counterparts to ensure water delivery, invoking the 1973 Hirmand Treaty and offering various incentives. Despite these efforts, negotiations have achieved limited success and encountered many challenges. Multiple factors influence the hydropolitical relationship between Iran and Afghanistan. The present study aimed to examine the role of Afghan actors as a key variable shaping the evolution of hydropolitical relations between the two countries.
Literature Review
There has been no serious research specifically addressing the role of Afghan actors in hydropolitical relations with Iran. The review identified existing research related to the hydropolitical dynamics between the two countries, which is closely connected to the topic of the current study. In the article “The Geopolitical Overlay of the Hydropolitics of the Harirud River Basin,” Nagheeby and Warner (2018) argue that Afghanistan’s control and management of water is not solely aimed at economic development. Instead, it serves broader strategic interests and reflects the concerns of both internal and external parties, particularly countries like the United States and India. From the Afghan perspective, dam construction is viewed not only as a symbol of nation-building but also as a means to assert national authority and power. In a later study titled “The 150-Year Itch: Afghanistan–Iran Hydropolitics Over the Helmand/Hirmand River,” Nagheeby and Warner (2022) examine the evolution of Afghanistan’s hydropolitical relations with Iran. They note that during the period of Western intervention and civil war, the water dispute between the two countries was often overshadowed by other pressing priorities, such as security, economic issues, and reconstruction. Their research emphasizes the importance of stability in Afghanistan. Moreover, in “Identifying the Effective Factors and the Importance of the Harirud Watershed in Afghanistan and Its Impact on Iran,” Yar et al. (2023) identified key factors influencing the Harirud watershed’s significance in Afghanistan and its implications for Iran. By analyzing 68 indicators, they concluded that the Harirud River plays a strategic role in national security, water resource management, and the implementation of Afghanistan’s economic development programs.
Materials and Methods
As an applied inquiry, the present research adopted a descriptive–survey approach. The data was collected and analyzed through both library research and field survey methods. The statistical population consisted of Afghan activists working in the field of water resources. The data collection methods included surveys, interviews, and questionnaires. Moreover, MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) software was employed to analyze the data and identify key variables.
Results and Discussion
Three distinct phases can be identified in the hydropolitical relations between Afghan actors and Iran. During the Shahi period, Afghan actors viewed Iran’s control over the Hirmand and Harirud rivers as legitimate. It was during this time that the 1973 Hirmand Treat between Iran and Afghanistan was finalized. In the Republic period, Afghan actors rejected Iran's water rights in the Hirmand and Harirud river basins, considering them internal rivers belonging solely to Afghanistan. Advocates of this stance argued that Iran should defer to Afghanistan’s needs when it came to water allocation. Under the Islamic Emirate, the Taliban acknowledged Iran’s claims and expressed a willingness to negotiate over the Hirmand and Harirud rivers. However, despite several years of Taliban rule, Iran has yet to secure any formal water rights. Experts have identified several key variables influencing hydropolitical relations between the two countries, including Afghanistan’s growing need for water resources for development, Iran’s politicization of water issues (as in the A20 case), recurring droughts, and the broader importance of water for the Afghan population. The hydropolitical relations between Iran and Afghanistan serve as a clear example of transboundary water conflict and cooperation between neighboring countries. As the downstream country, Iran seeks collaboration to secure access to drinking water, support agriculture, and protect the environment in its eastern provinces. In contrast, Afghanistan, as the upstream country, has shown reluctance to engage in negotiations concerning Iran’s water needs. Consequently, the intense competition between Iran and Afghanistan is accompanied by political disputes over the allocation and utilization of the Hirmand and Harirud rivers, underscoring the significance of water as a political concern for both nations. This dynamic has led to intense competition and political disputes over the allocation and use of the Hirmand and Harirud rivers, underscoring the significance of water as a political concern for both nations. Given the strategic importance of these rivers and Afghanistan’s upstream position, the role of Afghan actors in shaping hydropolitical relations with Iran has emerged as a key factor. The trend analysis of Afghan actors’ perspectives revealed that the hydropolitical relationship between the two countries ranges from cooperation to conflict. Evidence of cooperation includes diplomatic exchanges, expressions of verbal support, and the oral communication of policies. On the other hand, conflict manifests in statements that reflect a lack of coordination and even verbal hostility directed at Iran. These findings are consistent with observations by Nagheeby and Warner (2022), who note that international media often portray water relations between Afghanistan and Iran as deteriorating and indicative of an emerging conflict. This alarming rhetoric are driven by factors including regional water scarcity, political instability in Afghanistan, Iran’s dependence on shared water resources, and the lack of effective bilateral cooperation. Despite these tensions, historical evidence suggests that water disputes between Iran and Afghanistan are unlikely to escalate into open warfare.
Conclusion
From the perspective of Afghan actors, several key factors shape the hydropolitical relationship between Iran and Afghanistan. These include Afghanistan’s pressing need for water resources to support development, Iran’s politicization of water issues, recurring droughts, and the cultural significance of water for the Afghan population.
 Acknowledgments
I would like to thank kharazmi university for providing the conditions for conducting this research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Hydropolitical Relations
• Afghan Actors
• Shared Water Resources
• Hirmand and Harirud Rivers