نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• زاهد غفاری هشجین ¹
• محسن کریمی شیرودی ²

¹ استاد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

² دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

چکیده

افغانستان در دو دهه اخیر از حمله آمریکا در سال 2001 و سقوط طالبان تا تسلط دوباره طالبان در سال 2021، تحولات بسیاری را تجربه کرد. نتیجه این تحولات و بحران‌های سیاسی نه‌تنها موجب تغییر مناسبات و روندهای گذشته نشده بلکه در نهایت تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان را در پی داشته است. نظرات زیادی با هدف تبیین این تحولات بیان شده که بخش عمده‌ای، خلاء قدرت ناشی از خروج شتاب‌زده آمریکا را دلیل اصلی سقوط دولت ملی و قدرت‌یابی دوباره طالبان می‌دانند. اما به نظر می‌رسد این امر فقط شتاب‌دهنده به تحولات مذکور بوده است. هدف مقاله تبیین دلایل تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان برا اساس نظریه ادواری دکمجیان است. پرسش پژوهش آن است که دلایل تسلط مجدد طالبان بر افغانستان بر اساس نظریه ادواری دکمجیان چیست؟ روش پژوهش، کیفی و از نوع تحلیل اسنادی و ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها و فیش‌برداری است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بحران‌های اجتماعی ناشی از محیط بحران شامل بحران هویت، بحران مشروعیت، سوء‌مدیریت حاکمان و فشار و سرکوب، تضاد طبقاتی، ضعف نظامی و بحران فرهنگ در افغانستان موجب ظهور و تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان به مثابه پاسخی بنیادگرایانه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• افغانستان
• بحران
• جنبش‌های اسلامی
• طالبان
• نظریه ادواری دکمجیان

موضوعات

• تحولات جهان اسلام

عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining the Reasons Behind the Re-Domination of the Taliban in Afghanistan Based on Dekmejian’s Theory of Periodic Movements

نویسندگان [English]

• Zahed Ghaffari Hashjin ¹
• Mohsen Karimi Shiroodi ²

¹ Professor, Political Sciences, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D Student, Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Following the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the subsequent overthrow of the Taliban government, extensive efforts were made to rebuild the Afghan nation-state and establish a democratic political system. However, over the past two decades, these endeavors failed to foster the formation of a national unity government. Moreover, the initial impetus behind the U.S. intervention, namely ousting and destroying the Taliban, gradually receded in priority. This shift became evident particularly after Trump assumed office, as the policy of withdrawal from Afghanistan and negotiations with the Taliban gained momentum. Upon Biden’s inauguration, the policy of withdrawal from Afghanistan accelerated, despite both the Pentagon and the Afghan government stressing the necessity of continued American support for Kabul. This approach provided the Taliban with a good opportunity to swiftly seize control of various districts across Afghanistan, culminating in their complete domination and the resurgence of the Islamic Emirate. Accordingly, various analyses emerged to explain the re-domination of the Taliban in Afghanistan. While the re-domination is undoubtedly influenced by a combination of external and internal factors, the pivotal role of external factors has been emphasized, overshadowing the examination of internal factors. Although America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan seems to have catalyzed and expedited this process, the primary causes of the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan lie within internal dynamics. In this respect, the present study aimed to investigate the internal factors contributing to the resurgence and re-domination of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The main research question is: What are the reasons behind the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan through the lens of Dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements?
A great number of researches have delved into the Taliban government and its trajectory in Afghanistan (e.g., Hossein-Khani, 2019; Shafie, 2018; Shafie & Eiduzayi, 2012). More specifically, the Taliban resurgence in 2021 has been the subject of analysis in several studies (e.g., Arian, 2022; Bagheri-Dolatabadi, 2022; Dehzad, 2022; Moghaddas, 2022). These studies explained the various internal and external factors behind the emergence and development of the Taliban, as well as their subsequent reassertion of control over the Afghan state. However, there is no comprehensive and systematic study grounded in a theoretical framework.
Relying on Dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements, the present study aimed to analyze the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan as a fundamentalist response. Dekmejian posits that the nature, scope, and intensity of fundamentalist responses are contingent upon the six attributes of the crisis environment, including identity crisis, legitimacy crisis, misrule/coercion, class conflict, military impotence, and culture crisis (Dekmejian, 1995, p. 6).
Materials and Methods
As a descriptive–explanatory inquiry, the present research relied on a library–documentary method to examine the Afghan crisis environment and the reasons contributing to the re-domination of the Taliban.
Results and Discussion
Since gaining independence, Afghanistan has experienced a tumultuous political and social history. Key milestones before 2001 include its separation from Iran, the Soviet invasion leading to the establishment of a communist government, the subsequent Soviet withdrawal and rise of the Mujahideen government, and finally, the collapse of the Mujahideen regime and the emergence of the Taliban government. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s societal landscape is characterized by its diversity and ethnic mosaic, where religion holds considerable sway. Following the 2001 fall of the Taliban, the ensuing two decades heralded a move towards the establishment of the Afghan nation–state. However, numerous challenges led to crisis milieu in Afghanistan, including fragmented identities, a lack of integrative national identity, weakness of the central government, challenges in the democratic process (esp., in elections), failure to establish a national unity government, systemic corruption, inefficiency, repression and violence by security and military forces, deepening class divisions due to ethnic and religious reasons, military dependency, failure to establish a national army, hastened modernization, and disregard for ethnic and religious values and norms by the central government. Meanwhile, the Taliban capitalized on the weakness of the central government—particularly in providing security and facilities to marginalized and remote areas, notably those inhabited by Pashtuns—thus garnering significant support from specific segments of the populace. In line with Dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements and the attributes of crisis environment (see above), the Afghan crisis environment paved the way for the resurgence of the Taliban as a fundamentalist response to the prevailing crisis conditions. Notably, the Taliban adeptly used the fusion of ethnic and religious identities, maximizing Afghanistan’s social capacities to advance their goals as an Islamic ideological movement.
Conclusion
While various external and internal factors contributed to the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, it appears that the primary impetus lies within internal contexts and factors. The hasty withdrawal of American forces, though a significant external variable, merely accelerated the process rather than being the root cause, catalyzing the Taliban resurgence as a fundamentalist response to successive social crises. Although the Taliban’s performance following the establishment of the Islamic Emirate serves as a pivotal yardstick for evaluating developments in Afghanistan in 2021, it is essential to recognize that examining the foundations and contexts underpinning Islamic movements within the political, social, cultural, and economic milieu of a given society offers a more realistic criterion for the analysis of stances and decisions concerning Afghanistan’s future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Afghanistan
• Crisis
• Islamic Movements
• Taliban
• Periodic Theory of Dekamjian