نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محسن محمدی خانقاهی ¹
• عباس کشاورز شکری ²
• زاهد غفاری هشجین ²

¹ دانش‌آموخته دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

² استاد گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

چکیده

آمارهای منتشر شده و نظرات کارشناسی حاکی از آن است که روند نارضایتی اجتماعی در جامعه ایرانی، فزاینده است و به تبع آن دوره­های شکل­گیری اعتراضات اجتماعی کوتاه­تر شده و این اعتراضات به سوی خشونت بیشتر و رادیکالیسم سوق یافته است که پیامدهای منفی موثری در ابعاد سیاسی، فرهنگی و اجتماعی در پی داشته است. از این جهت این پژوهش در پی شناخت و تبیین لایه­های علی شکل دهنده به نارضایتی اجتماعی پس از انقلاب اسلامی است. بر این اساس پرسش اصلی پژوهش این است که «لایه­های علی ایجاد کننده نارضایتی اجتماعی پس از انقلاب اسلامی چیست؟»
برای پاسخ به این پرسش و پیشبرد پژوهش از روش تحلیل لایه­های علی بهره گرفته می­شود. طبق این روش چهار لایه لیتانی، سیستمی، گفتمانی و استعاری در باب پدیده نارضایتی اجتماعی مورد بحث قرار گرفته است. بر اساس یافته­ها در سطح سیستمی، عواملی چون توسعه ناامیدی و احساس محرومیت، تبعیض و شکاف طبقاتی، توسعه ناکارآمدی، تحول زیست جهان و سبک زندگی و غیره در توسعه نارضایتی موثر هستند. در سطح گفتمانی و استعاری نیز عللی چون فرهنگ و تفکر شیعی، دوگانه ج.ا.ا / انقلاب اسلامی، دگرانگاری حاکمیت سیاسی و چالش­های هویتی مطرح می­باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• نارضایتی اجتماعی
• ایران
• انقلاب اسلامی
• لایه‌های علی
• سناریو

موضوعات

• جامعه شناسی سیاسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Causal Layers of Social Dissatisfaction in the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• Mohsen Mohammadi Khanghahi ¹
• Abbas Keshavarz Shokri ²
• Gafari Zahed ²

¹ Ph.D, Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

² Professor, Political Seinces, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Social dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain instances, such as in 2009, the protests have posed a threat to the survival and stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, an analysis of the frequency and duration of social protests demonstrates the growth and prevalence of social dissatisfaction within Iranian society.
Social dissatisfaction can manifest itself through apathy and non-participation, as seen in the decline in political participation during the Islamic Council and presidential elections in in the recent decade, particularly in 2019 and 2021. A review of relevant research shows a lack of deep insight and comprehensive understanding of social dissatisfaction as a multi-faceted issue in Iran, which can be a major obstacle to insightful policymaking for successful and cost-effective management of social dissatisfaction.
The present research aimed to analyze and elucidate the underlying factors that contribute to social dissatisfaction, and subsequently develop strategies for effectively managing and mitigating the issue within Iranian society. The objective can ultimately enhance the efficiency of the decision-making process and policymaking in order to effectively address social dissatisfaction and protests. Accordingly, the main research questions are: What are the causal factors underlying social dissatisfaction in the Islamic Republic of Iran? and what are the potential solutions to solve the issue?
Materials and Methods
The present research employed a mixed methods research design. The documentary analysis method was utilized to examine and analyze various perspectives and approaches, as well as to investigate the evolution of the phenomenon of social dissatisfaction in Iranian society. Moreover, the method of causal layered analysis (CLA) was used to analyze and explain the underlying causes that contribute to social dissatisfaction in Iran.
This method incorporates the examination of four distinct layers: the litany, social/systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The litany layer represents the surface level, encompassing the most evident and objective aspects of the future. The social/systemic layer involves exploring the technological, social, economic, historical, political, and environmental causes associated with the subject matter. The discourse layer encompasses efforts to comprehend linguistic, cultural, and social structures that shape and pertain to the future. Lastly, the myth/metaphor layer delves into the investigation and exploration of schemas, mental images, and underlying narratives.
The researchers collected the data by administering an open semi-structured questionnaire to a total of 10 experts. The collected data was subjected to review by 5 additional experts, who were asked to confirm the identified causes and related factors with the ultimate aim of ensuring the validity and reliability of the data. Based on the degree of consensus and frequency, the identified causes were categorized into three levels: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. Furthermore, the researchers developed scenarios of social dissatisfaction by sharing the collected data with 5 experts, who were requested to envision future dissatisfaction scenarios in the 2031 horizon across three categories: desirable, possible, and probable.
 Results and Discussion
After conducting a review of relevant literature and collecting insights from 10 experts, the present study examined and analyzed the causes and factors contributing to social dissatisfaction the Islamic Republic in three layers: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. At the systemic level, various factors were identified and discussed, including the prevalence of poverty, increasing discrimination, widening class gap and increasing Gini coefficient, evolving societal lifestyles, widespread feelings of deprivation, unjust distribution of national resources, and unsustainable development, etc.
In the discursive layer, various causes and factors were identified and analyzed, including the historical mistrust towards the political sphere, the duality of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Shia culture and thought, the modern thought and worldview, the discourse of transformation, the discourse of Western development, and the alienation of political governance, etc. Moving to the metaphorical/mythical layer, factors such as the portrayal of the government as a bandit in Iranian culture, the usurpation of power by the state, the metaphor of the Alavi government, and historical transformation-seeking were recognized and discussed as influential elements in the development of social dissatisfaction.
Moreover, in accordance with expert opinions, three scenarios (desirable, possible, and probable) were formulated and constructed regarding the future of social dissatisfaction in Iran. In the desirable scenario, effective reformist measures and the realization of the right to protest would lead to a reduction in social dissatisfaction, putting protests within a legally recognized framework. In the possible scenario, considering the continuation and exacerbation of underlying causes of dissatisfaction, we would witness the accumulation of social dissatisfaction and the emergence of intermittent episodes of violent social protests. Finally, according to the probable scenario, civil disobedience would arise as a result of the prevailing security-focused approach and the rising costs of engaging in protests.
Conclusion
Social dissatisfaction remains a significant issue in Iran, posing considerable challenges to political stability and national security. Effective policymaking and management concerning social dissatisfaction initially requires a comprehensive and accurate understanding of this complex issue. In this line, the present study used the CLA method as an effective approach to examine different causal layers and drivers and their impact on social dissatisfaction. The results indicated that the Islamic Republic of Iran aims to move towards its desired scenario, which involves reducing dissatisfaction and implementing a persuasive and systematic approach to managing social protests. However, given the current circumstances, attaining this scenario proves to be challenging. Instead, the possible scenario entails the continued accumulation of dissatisfaction and ongoing social protests, which will pose a significant challenge to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Protests will be characterized by increased violence, potentially leading the political system to adopt a hard approach in suppressing and managing social unrest. This, in turn, may exacerbate radicalism and further fuel social dissatisfaction. The probable scenario, characterized by intermittent and costly protests as well as civil disobedience, presents an alternative outlook for the future of social dissatisfaction. In this scenario, social dissatisfaction manifests itself through intermittent protests that occur at various intervals and in response to specific events. As social dissatisfaction continues to evolve and persist, some citizens may resort to civil disobedience and divergence from official values and norms.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Social Dissatisfaction
• Iran
• Islamic Revolution
• Causal Layers
• Scenario