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بررسی تاثیر بحران کووید-19 بر گفتمان جهانی شدن و آینده پیش روی آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان یزد، ایران

2 عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج

چکیده

پرسش اصلی مقاله عبارت است از اینکه «در شرایط بحرانی کنونی، کووید-19 چگونه بر گفتمان جهانی شدن تاثیر گذاشته و  چه سناریوهایی پیش‌روی گفتمان جهانی شدن خواهند بود؟» نتایج حاصل از تحقیق که با روش آینده­پژوهی (سناریوپردازی) حاصل شده است، نشان می­دهد که گفتمان جهانی­شدن با دال مرکزی لیبرالیسم و با دال­های شناوری چون بازار آزاد و تجارت جهانی پیش از بحران کرونا دچار آسیب­های اساسی شده بود؛ در این میان، همه‌گیری کرونا به این امر شدت بخشید و در ادامه تشدید سیاست‌های ضربتی دولت­ها از قبیل انسداد مرزها، کنترل و محدودسازی اطلاعات و اخبار، عدم رعایت عدالت اجتماعی و حقوق بشر، شیوع ناسیونالیسم، اقتدارگرایی و سانسور شدید به تدریج مابقی دال‌های شناور را نیز با چالشی عمیق روبرو ساخت. به نظر می­رسد در باب آینده پیش روی گفتمان جهانی شدن نیز چهار سناریو قابل طرح است که در سه دسته­بندی عبارتند از: الف- آینده مطلوب: بازگشت جهانی­شدن به روال گذشته و همبستگی مجدد میان دولت­ها؛ ب- آینده محتمل: 1- کاهش سرعت فرایند جهانی شدن و روی‌آوری دولت‌ها به منفعت‌طلبی؛ 2-کاهش سرعت فرایند جهانی شدن و انقباض موقت محیط بین‌الملل؛  پ- آینده ممکن: توقف گفتمان جهانی شدن، شکست ایدئولوژی سرمایه‌داری و ظهور ایدئولوژی‌های جدید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on the Discourse of Globalization and its Future

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohsen Shafiee Seifabadi 1
  • ali bagheri dolatabadi 2

1 Assistant Professor of Political Sciences, Ardakan University, Iran

2 associate professor- yassouj university

چکیده [English]

 
The main question of the present article is "How has Covid-19 affected the globalization discourse in the current crisis? And what will be the scenarios facing Corona and the globalization discourse?" The results of a future research method show that the discourse of globalization is hurting by the central sign of liberalism and by floating signs such as the free market and global trade before the Corona crisis. Corona's oversight has intensified, with states continuing to tighten their policies, such as blocking borders, controlling and restricting information and news, disregarding social justice and human rights, the spread of nationalism, authoritarianism and severe censorship. This practice gradually challenged the rest of the floating signs. Seems that there are five scenarios for the future of the globalization discourse, which are as follows: A) Favorable future: the return of globalization to the past and reunification between states. B) Probable future: 1. Reducing the speed of the globalization process and turning states to utilitarianism. 2. Reducing the speed of the globalization process, and temporarily shrink the international environment. C) Possible future: stopping the discourse of globalization, the failure of capitalist ideology and the emergence of new ideologies.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Globalization
  • COVID-19
  • future research method
  • States
  • Trade
مراجع
الف- فارسی
-           کاستلز، امانوئل، (1385)، عصر اطلاعات؛ اقتصاد، جامعه و فرهنگ، پایان هزاره، ترجمه احمد علیقلیان، جلد سوم، چاپ پنجم، تهران: نشر طرح نو.
 
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پژوهش های راهبردی سیاست
دوره 9، شماره 33 - شماره پیاپی 63
شهریور 1399
صفحه 223-262
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