نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشیار، گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
همگام با تحول در سیستم بین‌الملل، سیستم بازدارندگی نیز تکامل یافته و شکل‌های نوینی تجربه کرده است. رویارویی با چالش‌های غیرقابل پیش‌بینی آینده همراه با تهدیدات نامتقارن در یک سازوکار غیرخطی، طراحی دستگاه تحلیلی جدیدی از بازدارندگی و بازسازی مفهومی و نظری آن را ضروری نموده و هدف این پژوهش را شکل می‌دهد. پرسش این است که چگونه می‌توان در این الگو از سیستم بین‌الملل، بازدارندگی را از نظر مفهومی و نظری بازسازی کرد؟ این نوشتار با بهره‌گیری از روش استنتاج قیاسی و تمرکز بر نظریه‌های پیچیدگی و آشوب بویژه اصول بنیادین آن مانند شبکه‌ای و غیرخطی بودن سیستم، وابستگی حساس و شکست آبشاری به بازسازی مفهومی و نظری آن اقدام می‌کند. این پژوهش ضمن تمرکز بر دینامیک قدرت و سازوکارهای تبدیل آن به تهدید، از راه منطق و سازوکارهای غیرخطی و اصول مورد تاکید نظریه پیچیدگی و آشوب به بازسازی مفهومی و نظری بازدارندگی اقدام کرده و بازدارندگی شبکه‌ای غیرخطی را بعنوان مفهومی نوآورانه و نوین به حوزه مطالعات راهبردی ارائه می‌نماید. این الگو سرآغازی برای موج ششم بازدارندگی در روابط بین‌الملل می‌باشد. از سوی دیگر می تواند الگوی نوینی برای طراحی بازدارندگی ایران ارائه کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Theoretical Requirements of Deterrence in Complex-Chaotic International Systems: A Step towards a New Theory of Nonlinear Deterrence
نویسنده [English]
- Farhad Ghasemi
Associate Professor, International Relations, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
The deterrence system has developed with the evolution of the international system and has experienced new forms. Facing the unstable and unpredictable challenges of the future, along with asymmetric threats in a nonlinear mechanism, is required to design a new analytical apparatus of deterrence and its conceptual and theoretical reconstruction. It forms the main purpose of the present article. In this regard, the fundamental question arises as to how in this model of the emerging international system, deterrence can be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically? The author intends to reconstruct it by using the method of deductive inference and focusing on theories of complexity and chaos, especially its basic principles such as the networked structure of the system, nonlinearity, sensitive dependence, and cascading failure. This study focuses on the dynamics of power and the mechanisms that turn it into a threat through nonlinear logic and its mechanisms and the principles emphasized by the theory of complexity and chaos. The author introduces nonlinear network deterrence to the field of strategic studies as an innovative and new concept. This pattern is a start point of the sixth wave of deterrence in International Relations. It will provide a new model for designing Iran's deterrence.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Deterrence
- Nonlinear Network Deterrence
- Multilayer Network Deterrence
- Complexity
- Chaos
- Complex and Chaotic International System
الف- فارسی
- فرهاد قاسمی، نظریه‌های روابط بین‌الملل، بنیان‌های نظری نظم و رژیم‌های بین‌المللی، تهران: نشر میزان.
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