Political Sociology
Pegah Kheirollahi; Hamid Dehghani; Hamid Nassaj
Abstract
IntroductionThe social life can be divided into two spheres: state and society. It is evident that societies tend to coexist in based on either agreement or conflict. In contexts where state–society relations are marked by conflict, the potential arises for either a democratic revolution or the ...
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IntroductionThe social life can be divided into two spheres: state and society. It is evident that societies tend to coexist in based on either agreement or conflict. In contexts where state–society relations are marked by conflict, the potential arises for either a democratic revolution or the reproduction of authority. The agreement between the state and society can pave the way for a new social agreement, potentially occurring before any structural change takes place. The path to democratization varies across societies and is shaped by numerous factors, among which the state–society relation is significant. The conflict or agreement between the state and society plays a crucial role in this process. The 1979 Revolution was one of the most significant and contentious events of the 20th century in the democratization process in Iran. While the Revolution has been studied from various perspectives, the state–society relations during this transformative period have often been overlooked. Although pinpointing a definitive beginning for revolutions is challenging, it seems that the year 1963 was a critical juncture when Iranian society broke its prolonged silence, which had persisted since the state’s consolidation of power in 1953. Between 1963 and 1979, a series of interconnected events unfolded, culminating in the 1979 Revolution. These events sought to direct the democratization process toward structural transformation. Focused on the interval of 1936–1979, the present research tried to address the following questions: What were the most important events that occurred during 1963–1979? And how did each event impact state–society relations?Literature ReviewThe literature on the state is largely focused on democracy, as in a democratic system, the state and society interact without one being dominated by the other. Althusser argues that the state functions as an ideological apparatus that controls people’s minds by persuading them to follow supreme subject, thereby ensuring the reproduction of the dominant ideology. Gramsci, on the other hand, emphasizes hegemony and contends that modern states manipulate democratic institutions—such as civil society, electoral systems, and political parties—to maintain control over people. Citizens may believe they are participating in a democratic system, but their opinions are often shaped to preserve and perpetuate the state hegemony. Elitists like Gaetano Mosca discuss the stratification of elites, asserting that society is divided into two main groups: elites and the masses. Elites themselves are split into two subcategories: leader elites and belief-managing elites. This framework suggests that when the masses influence the elites, society can exert an impact on the state. However, Robert Michels argues that in every political system, there is an oligarchy—a ruling elite operating within what appears to be a formal democratic system but is inherently non-democratic. Pluralists such as Robert Dahl propose that a truly democratic state must meet two essential criteria: first, recognizing the right of society to question the state, and second, acknowledging the existence of a population willing to participate in social and political systems. Joel Migdal states that in developing countries, state–society relations are often characterized by conflict rather than agreement. In such cases, the state may attempt to enforce compliance, demand participation in the political system, and assert its legitimacy. However, these efforts are frequently executed through dirty tricks, often based on violence.Materials and MethodsThe present study employed the method of historical institutionalism. This approach involved providing a complete description of key historical moments, followed by identifying the temporal and causal sequences between events. The data was collected from historical documents and books.Results and DiscussionThe research findings reveal that the first significant social protests in Iran occurred in 1963, marked by two key events. The protests at Hozeh Elmieh (Islamic Seminary) in Qom represented the first ideological opposition to the state, while the Siahkal incident was the initial opposition to the state hegemony. In contrast, the state held the 2500-year celebration of the Persian Empire, addressing people as members of the Great Civilization and the supreme subject. Additionally, the state established the Rastakhiz Party, compelling citizens to join it. This measure effectively limited the right of society to question the state and demonstrated the state’s rejection of the public right of participation in the democratic process. In 1977, international pressures forced the state to adopt a political open-space policy, providing society with greater opportunities for protest. This led to events such as the protests at the Goethe Institute and the Qoba Mosque. In response, the state employed a dirty trick, publishing an insulting article about Imam Khomeini, the charismatic leader of the revolutionary movement. This provocation triggered a series of protests lasting for three months. Following these events, a catastrophic cinema fire occurred, for which society blamed the state. Public outrage over this incident forced the state to permit a civil protest. However, on September 8, 1978, known as Black Friday, the state violently suppressed the protesters, thus intensifying the conflict between the state and society to its highest level. In the aftermath of Black Friday, the state attempted to restore order by implementing a new open-space policy, punishing certain political elites, and narrowing its circle of trusted elites. Despite these efforts, the state’s legitimacy collapsed entirely. The loss of legitimacy spurred nationwide strikes. The strikes demonstrated that society at the time sought to replace the existing ideology and hegemony, refusing to obey the rules or participate in the political system. The protests persisted until the state’s leader fled the country, and the opposition leader returned to take control. Support for the Revolution from parts of the military further facilitated the transition of power, ultimately leading to the replacement of the state.Conclusion This research shows that during 1963–1979, the Pahlavi state sought to impose its hegemony on society through a national-modernizing ideology, aiming to secure legitimacy by suppressing any protests during critical historical moments. After each protest, the state responded with a consistent strategy of repression. However, on Black Friday in 1979, the extreme violence employed by the state convinced society that an agreement or compromise was no longer possible. After all, following a series of prior protests, the state resorted to another dirty trick once again, further eroding public trust. Black Friday became a super historical moment; the violence of the state and the profound psychological impact of the event galvanized society to persist in its efforts to overthrow the regime through nationwide strikes and continued protests.
Political Psychology
Shohreh Pirani; Sajjad Sharifasgari
Abstract
IntroductionFew people acknowledge that Mossadegh’s political style contributed to the loss of a historic opportunity for Iranians to establish democracy and a popular government. Many of his critics—who were ironically his former collaborators in politics and administration—argue that ...
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IntroductionFew people acknowledge that Mossadegh’s political style contributed to the loss of a historic opportunity for Iranians to establish democracy and a popular government. Many of his critics—who were ironically his former collaborators in politics and administration—argue that the opportunity was lost due to Mossadegh’s approach to the oil issue and his management of domestic affairs. According to these critics, despite his libertarian rhetoric, Mossadegh did not often value the opinions of others. They claim he prioritized his public image over the practical realities of politics, which caused him to miss opportunities to resolve the oil crisis and ultimately led to the downfall of the national government. Furthermore, his critics argue that several of Mossadegh’s actions—such as dissolving parliament, holding a referendum, and even defending himself in a military court—lacked legal foundation. They contend that these actions relied more on stirring up public opinion and gaining popular support. The current study aimed to examine Mossadegh’s personality and its impact on his political decisions and relationship with the people. It tried to answer the following question: How did Mossadegh’s personality influence his macro-political decisions and his relationship with the people?Literature ReviewPersonality refers to the unique identity of individuals. The personality analysis of famous and influential figures constitutes an important area of study. The psychological examination of political leaders, however, is not a new phenomenon; it has existed for over a century. In addition to the evaluations by Freud (Jung, 1939) and Erikson of leaders such as Hitler and Mussolini, recent decades have seen growing interest in studying world political leaders, attracting attention from psychologists and researchers in political psychology (Marshall, 2014). Analyzing the personalities of political figures offers a way to explore the contradictions inherent in celebrity culture (Marshall & Barbour, 2015). The political personalities and actions of leaders are influenced by both the era in which they come to power and their mindset and attitudes toward political realities. For example, Mayer (2012) evaluated the personalities of George Bush and Saddam Hussein, while Post (2010) conducted psychological assessments of Bill Clinton and Saddam Hussein. Following the definition of persona in personality studies, some researchers have focused on the persona as the version of one’s personality presented behind their virtual or public personalities (Giles, 2020). Psychoanalytic theories proved to be useful in analyzing the personalities and actions of two Iranian kings from the Pahlavi and Qajar dynasties. For instance, Coolidge (2001) used Horney’s theory to examine how experiences in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood shaped their behavior as rulers. As an another example, Nettmann (2013) applied Jung’s concept of persona to interpret the stories of Iranian writers.Materials and MethodsThe present study used a qualitative document analysis conducted on library resources. Moreover, it relied on Karen Horney’s theory of personality, along with Jung’s model of persona, as the theoretical framework of the study.Results and DiscussionOne of Mossadegh’s notable traits was his insistence on securing majority approval for his opinions during government meetings or other gatherings, even if these opinions included flawed examples. He was willing to take bold actions, even if it meant facing criticism for not aligning with the British, all in order to maintain his image. Despite the controversy, his actions were of great significance. Many believe that, despite his democratic rhetoric, Mossadegh had an autocratic personality. This inner authoritarianism is thought to have been fueled by his aversion to criticism. Both political opponents and individuals with no political affiliation, including some of his relatives, voiced criticisms of Mossadegh and his personal actions. A key weakness of in Mossadegh’s character was his unwillingness to tolerate opposition. He was one of the most authoritarian figures of his time, and while he may have had internal authoritarian tendencies, he rarely expressed them outwardly. For example, Mossadegh’s susceptibility to illness during sensitive situations, his hysterical episodes, his tendency to wear informal clothing in certain meetings, his avoidance of official banquets, and his handling of prime ministerial affairs all point to a leader who struggled with certain personal challenges.The research findings indicate that Mossadegh does not fit neatly into the heroic image his supporters paint nor the purely villainous portrayal by his critics. Despite his valuable service in the nationalization of the oil industry, which sparked a movement for independence in the Middle East, Mossadegh struggled to shed the mask created by his own acclaim. This façade—coupled with his penchant for seeking attention and admiration (some kind of perfectionism)—hindered a true understanding of Mossadegh’s character among Iranians and led to a missed historical opportunity for democracy, culminating in the 1953 coup d'état and the fall of his government. Had Mossadegh relied on communicating facts to the people rather than maintaining his public image, he might have better sustained his government despite severe sanctions. Maintaining a certain image in the public eye sometimes led Mossadegh to take unconstitutional actions to garner support or to fulfill his popular but illegal demands. His unconventional behaviors, such as wearing pajamas in meetings, resting on his lawyer’s shoulder in court, or fainting in moments of crisis, seemed more aimed at drawing public attention and sympathy rather than pursuing justice.ConclusionMossadegh is an influential figure in modern Iranian history, revered by some of his supporters to the point of near sanctification, with his character seen as flawless and beyond criticism. However, this view is not universally held. On the other side are those, largely supporters of the Pahlavi monarchy, who strongly criticize Mossadegh’s actions and hold a negative view of his constitutionalism, which stood in opposition to the absolute rule of Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah. Despite Mossadegh’s success in leading the movement to nationalize the oil industry, a major achievement in his time, his personal characteristics prevented the consolidation and continuation of this victory. While external factors, such as foreign conspiracies and the tyranny of local agents, certainly played a role in his failure, his image as a great leader also contributed significantly to the missed opportunities.
International Relations
Sajjad sadeghi
Abstract
Introduction Recently, several studies have examined the development of the field of international relations in Iran, focusing on the research approaches and theories used in the Iranian scientific research articles. The two prominent studies are: “Examining Research Approaches of Iranian International ...
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Introduction Recently, several studies have examined the development of the field of international relations in Iran, focusing on the research approaches and theories used in the Iranian scientific research articles. The two prominent studies are: “Examining Research Approaches of Iranian International Relations Articles: A Review of Scientific Research Articles Published from March 21, 2021, to March 20, 2022” by Sadeghi (2024a) and “The Impact of US Foreign Policy on International Relations Theories: A Case Study of Iranian Scientific Research Articles (2019–2022)” by Sadeghi (2024b). The analyses revealed several notable trends. A significant portion of Iranian researchers primarily focuses on contemporary foreign policy as case studies, adopting paradigmatic orientations rooted in realism or liberalism. However, these studies often neglect epistemological considerations and rely heavily on the descriptive–analytical method as the declared research approach. This focus frequently excludes a critical examination of the foreign policy performance of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Additionally, the studies indicate that a considerable portion of Iranian international relations research incorporates U.S. foreign policy as a key independent variable. This reflects the widespread acknowledgment of the U.S. hegemonic power and its multiple roles in international events. Considering that over 70% of the analyzed articles (in both studies) were derived from students’ theses or dissertations, examining students’ perspectives on these topics and evaluating the educational process and knowledge acquired through university education can provide valuable insights into the subject. In this respect, the current study aimed to analyze 165 master’s and Ph.D. students of international relations, as well as 210 graduates in the field. This analysis yielded significant results that can contribute to identifying solutions to the issues highlighted in the previous two studies.Literature ReviewConcerning the research by Iranian scholars of international relations, few adopt an approach focusing on the evolution or pathology of the issue, highlighting a theoretical deficiency in this field. The limited research available can be categorized into ten main groups, reflecting varying perspectives on the subject. These include studies focused on the evolution of international relations in Iran, research analyzing articles published in Iranian scientific–research journals, studies examining theses or dissertations, and research based on questionnaires and surveys. Other categories encompass studies derived from discussion meetings with international relations and political science professors, case studies with partial analyses of one or more influential factors, and research investigating the obstacles to Iranian theorization in international relations. Additionally, there are studies analyzing the methods, content, and resources used in teaching international relations, research based on interviews with university professors, and studies addressing the pathology of scientific–research journals. This array of studies shows the diverse approaches and perspectives in the Iranian scholarship of international relations.Materials and MethodsThe present study used the targeted questionnaire method to collect the date. The stratified random sampling method was used to select the universities. The final statistical population consisted of two groups: students and graduates. Questionnaires were then distributed electronically by generating a list and applying systematic random sampling based on the pi number for computer spacing. As the focus of the research, the acquired knowledge of students and graduates was conceptualized, and the results were subsequently tested using a self-evaluation approach. Finally, a statistical comparison of the results from both knowledge acquisition styles—conceptualization and self-evaluation—was conducted against existing factual data. The analysis provided a reliable comparative realist measurement.Results and DiscussionThis research found that individuals who entered the field of international relations without prior knowledge often struggled to achieve career success in the field. Some became students or graduates of international relations due to the deterministic nature of university admissions processes. In addition, studies on the U.S. issues—particularly those focusing on the impact on the international political economy and international security, with an emphasis on China–U.S. relations—are the most popular areas of interest among Iranian international relations students and graduates. At the same time, there is a noticeable theoretical deficiency in research related to Iran’s official foreign policy, often manifesting in what is referred to as Kissinger syndrome. Based on a quantitative evaluation of the knowledge acquired through education, the average score achieved by Iranian international relations students and graduates was found to be 10 out of 20. Notably, university professors and individuals with careers directly related to the field tend to score higher. However, if tools like internet searches or superficial knowledge sources (e.g., Wikipedia) are removed, their knowledge level drops significantly. The findings also confirmed the results of two previous studies. These include the dominance of mainstream theories (realism and liberalism), a lack of familiarity with research methodologies, an inability to connect research topics to appropriate research methods, limited understanding of epistemological concepts, and a preference for regional issues without adequately considering the influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy. Moreover, there is a recurring tendency to approach topics from the perspective of American foreign policy’s influence, often with a pessimistic view of the country’s official policymaking.ConclusionThe findings revealed several important points. First, common intellectual circles within the field of Iranian international relations have yet to form, primarily due to a lack of interest in collaborative work. This shortcoming is largely attributed to the limited scope of joint research, which is often confined to student theses or dissertations. Moreover, the low enthusiasm among students and graduates to join scientific and specialized associations highlights a need for further investigation into effective methods for promoting and expanding such associations. A key question remains: can the development of these associations contribute to the establishment of shared intellectual circles? Second, the quantitative analysis of acquired knowledge indicates that emigrant graduates score an average of 13, which is 30% higher than the average score of participants in this research. Notably, only 10% of these individuals are employed in fields unrelated to their studies, suggesting that the majority can be classified as part of the emigrant elite. This raises important questions about the reasons behind their migration and the extent to which their increased knowledge levels can be attributed to studying and working within scientific communities abroad. Finally, as observed in two previous studies, there remains a significant theoretical deficiency in analyzing the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially its performance and influence in major regional and extra-regional events. In the topics examined, no critical perspectives on the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic were identified, further confirming the prevalence of Kissinger syndrome. This phenomenon also reflects a tendency to address issues and topics that are expected to be approved by Iran’s foreign policy apparatus.
Iranian Domestic Policy
Mohsen Mizazade; Hamid Reza Rahamanizadeh Dehkordi
Abstract
Introduction Political conflicts in contemporary Iran can largely be explained by the confrontation between tradition and modernity. To address this dichotomy, Iranian thinkers have proposed various solutions. Some fully embrace modernity while rejecting tradition entirely. Conversely, others defend ...
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Introduction Political conflicts in contemporary Iran can largely be explained by the confrontation between tradition and modernity. To address this dichotomy, Iranian thinkers have proposed various solutions. Some fully embrace modernity while rejecting tradition entirely. Conversely, others defend tradition and adopt a hostile stance toward all aspects of modernity. A third group advocates for a middle ground, suggesting a synthesis that preserves the positive elements of both tradition and modernity while discarding their negative aspects. Despite their many differences, traditionalists such as Ahmad Fardid, Reza Davari Ardakani (in his early intellectual period), and Seyyed Hossein Nasr all reject modernity entirely in favor of tradition. They argue that the Renaissance, seen as the origin of modernity, represents a fundamental deviation from the unity of human. According to these thinkers, the modern human has elevated autonomous reason as their ultimate authority, abandoning religion as a profound source of wisdom and knowledge. In this sense, traditionalists prioritize intuitive knowledge over acquired knowledge, which they see as a product of the Modern age. They propose an epistemology that places revelation and contemplation above reason and experience, replacing modern epistemological frameworks with their preferred epistemology. The present study tried to examine the epistemological foundations of Iranian traditionalists, specifically Ahmad Fardid, Reza Davari Ardakani, and Seyyed Hossein Nasr. It seems that their defense of tradition in its entirety and their outright rejection of modernity are rooted in specific epistemological principles. These foundational ideas shape their stance on the interplay between tradition and modernity. In this respect, this study aimed to examine the epistemological foundations of Iranian traditionalists, as well as their broader implications. First, the analysis intended to clarify the theory of knowledge serving as the basis for traditionalist perspectives and conclusions. Second, it went on to see how the very theory of knowledge influences the confrontation between tradition and modernity. The main research question is: What epistemological foundations underlie the traditionalists’ defense of tradition and their rejection of modernity?Literature ReviewThe literature on Iranian intellectuals, particularly traditionalists, has explored their ideas from various perspectives. However, it appears that much of this research focuses more on the opinions and outcomes of traditionalist thought rather than their underlying principles. In other words, Iranian scholars in the field of intellectual history have often overlooked or easily downplayed the foundational aspects of traditionalists, including their epistemologies. At best, these studies only touch briefly on the desirable epistemologies of Iranian traditionalists. In contrast, the current study delved deeper into the epistemological foundations of traditionalists, specifically Ahmad Fardid, Reza Davari Ardakani, and Seyyed Hossein Nasr.Materials and MethodsThe present study employed ratio decidendi as its method. The British liberal–conservative philosopher Michael Oakeshott used this method to interpret texts of political thought. Oakeshott argued that emphasizing only the opinions and conclusions of a thinker risks marginalizing other aspects of their work, likely leading to misinterpretation. He applied the method to interpret the works of Bentham and Hobbes. According to Oakeshott, some researchers view Bentham as a great critical thinker simply because of his philosophical and political predictions (i.e., his opinions and conclusions). As a result, they mistakenly portray him as a thinker going against his time. Similarly, in the case of Hobbes, some scholars focus exclusively on his view of human nature as inherently selfish, treating it as the premise of his political conclusions. However, Oakeshott, using the method of ratio decidendi, contended that Bentham was firmly a product of his era, with no groundbreaking innovations in his principles. Regarding Hobbes, Oakeshott argued that he was a radical and distinctive philosopher of his time. The notion of inherent selfishness in human nature, often attributed as Hobbes’s starting premise, was, in fact, a conclusion derived from nominalism and solipsism.Results and DiscussionUsing this method, instead of focusing on the opinions and results of the traditionalists, we examine their foundations particularly epistemology. Therefore, our question will be, on what epistemological basis do traditionalists - like Farid, Davari Ardakani and Nasr - oppose modernity and what is the consequence of this basis in solving the equation of tradition and modernity.Broadly speaking, there are two main theories of knowledge: the theory of correspondence and the theory of coherence. According to the theory of correspondence, truth is determined by its alignment with raw and fixed data—what is commonly referred to as facts. In contrast, the theory of coherence holds that truth is established when the facts belong to a larger system. Advocates of the theory of coherence emphasize a distinction between the concepts of whole and collection, arguing that reality should be understood as an integrated whole rather than as a mere collection of parts.ConclusionThe analysis of the works of Iranian traditionalists revealed that their epistemology aligns closely with the theory of coherence. They perceive phenomena, including tradition and modernity, as integrated wholes rather than as mere collections of parts. Based on this perspective, it can be argued that if tradition is regarded as a fixed whole, it will be impossible to combine tradition and modernity. However, if tradition is understood as a collection—where parts can be added or removed—the possibility of combining tradition and modernity emerges to some extent. The traditionalists in question view both tradition and modernity as fixed, unchangeable wholes. Consequently, they advocate for the complete rejection of modernity in favor of fully restoring tradition. Nevertheless, unlike Fardid and Davari Ardakani, Nasr offers a limited, albeit conditional, opportunity to combine tradition and modernity.
International Relations
Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Abstract
IntroductionDuring the years 2015–2023, Iran–Russia relations experienced a consistent growth and stability. Structural components played varying roles during this period, sometimes acting as limiting and controlling factors, while at other times serving as catalysts that facilitated and ...
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IntroductionDuring the years 2015–2023, Iran–Russia relations experienced a consistent growth and stability. Structural components played varying roles during this period, sometimes acting as limiting and controlling factors, while at other times serving as catalysts that facilitated and accelerated the development of bilateral relations. Two key structural components in the foreign policies of both countries have significantly influenced the dynamics of their relations. The first is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in which Russia played a pivotal role. The second is the 2022 Ukraine crisis, where Iran’s involvement drew considerable attention from analysts. These two factors have shaped the developmental trajectory of Iran–Russia relations since 2015. The present study aimed to address the following question: Which structural components influenced the model of Iran–Russia relations during 2015–2023? The study is based on the hypothesis that the JCPOA was a structural factor shaping Iran’s foreign policy, while the Ukraine crisis of 2022 served as a structural factor influencing Russia’s foreign policy. The two countries’ responses to these structural factors played a crucial role in expanding their bilateral relations.Literature ReviewThere are many studies about Iran–Russia relations. Among the most notable works are the Persian-language book titled Relations Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation: The New Era of Cooperation by Jahangir Karami (2009), and the article “The Prospect of Strategic Convergence Between Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran” by Alhoei (2022). However, only a limited number of these studies deal with the structural components of Iran–Russia relations. Furthermore, few academic publications explored these relations from a structural perspective, particularly in light of recent developments, such as the aftermath of the Ukraine war.Materials and MethodsThe current study used a descriptive–analytical method within the theoretical framework of structural neo-realism.Results and DiscussionKenneth Waltz views the structure of the international system as the fundamental factor shaping state behavior, asserting that this structure influences the relations between the states around the world. According to Waltz, states are interminably trying to increase their power due to the inherent chaos of the international system. In the meantime, international structures—especially the condition of anarchy—intensify states’ motivations to pursue common interests and participate in temporary coalitions. Therefore, the relationship between Iran and Russia can be analyzed through the lens of the balance of power. From the perspective of structural neo-realism, state behavior is shaped by the international system’s structure. Regardless of internal developments, the trajectory of state relations can be assessed through the analysis of the international system. In this model, countries exhibit similar behavior patterns influenced by their interaction with the international structure. Thus, setting aside regional and historical differences, the relationship between Iran and Russia can be examined in terms of their responses to international dynamics.The cornerstone of Iran–Russia cooperation lies in their critical and revisionist approach aimed at transitioning toward a multipolar world order, driven by the perceived decline of American hegemony. This shared perspective provides a foundation for cooperation, exemplified by their opposition to the U.S. unilateral actions in the JCPOA and the Ukraine crisis. One significant indicator of political cooperation is the frequency of state visits. Officials from both countries have engaged in numerous summits, discussing a wide range of issues. This unprecedented level of official meetings, unseen since the collapse of the USSR, signals the beginning of a new era in Iran–Russia relations. Another dimension of Iran–Russia relations is their evolving collaboration within international organizations. Although the two countries have cooperated in some areas, disagreements have persisted in others. Russia has supported Iran on various occasions, almost in line with its own strategic purposes. In the security–military domain, Iran and Russia have deepened their cooperation at critical junctures. During the Holy Defense, Moscow was Iran’s sole option for military support. More recently, their collaboration in Syria has strengthened their military and security ties. Russia’s involvement in Syria stems from a combination of strategic and tactical objectives, including countering Western dominance, protecting its interests, and preventing the collapse of allied states. The central theme of their security–military cooperation has been their shared opposition to U.S. policies and their commitment to protecting their respective interests. The Ukraine crisis has further reshaped the dynamics of their security–military relationship. Economic relations proved to be a critical component of Iran–Russia interactions over the past decade. These relations, increasingly elevated to a geo-economic level, spurred collaboration on major infrastructure projects, such as the North–South Corridor—which has received limited attention so far. Iran’s geographic location is a valuable asset frequently highlighted by both Iranian and international perspectives. Iran’s approach, blending reformist and traditional revisionist elements, reflects its structural interests in a more realistic way. Meanwhile, Russia, in response to escalating tensions with the West, has shifted away from its previously conservative stance, adopting a more proactive role in reforming the international system and shaping a new global order.ConclusionIran–Russia relations can be divided into two key phases: the first spanning from 2015 to 2019 (centered around the signing of the JCPOA) and the second beginning in 2022 (marked by the onset of the Ukraine war). In the first phase, Russia played a pivotal role in the nuclear negotiations. Although the JCPOA was essentially a legal document, it has significantly influenced Iran’s global image and position. It has also enhanced Iran’s diplomatic relations and its active role on the international stage. These advantages represent critical dimensions of power in the current era, encompassing political, normative, and economic aspects. The JCPOA has also had far-reaching implications in other areas, including security. In the second phase, as tensions and sanctions from the West against Russia escalated, Iran adopted a neutral stance, while acknowledging NATO’s destructive and provocative role at the onset of the war. This approach fostered new strategic interests in Iran–Russia relations, enabling significant advancements in various domains through a structural model.
International Relations
Farideh Amani Kaekanlo; Reza Simbar
Abstract
IntroductionThe events of September 11 brought the issue of the U.S. fight against terrorism in Afghanistan to the forefront. Despite the significant expenditure aimed at advancing the U.S. nation-building project in Afghanistan, the Taliban managed to recapture Kabul on August 15, 2021. This rapid takeover ...
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IntroductionThe events of September 11 brought the issue of the U.S. fight against terrorism in Afghanistan to the forefront. Despite the significant expenditure aimed at advancing the U.S. nation-building project in Afghanistan, the Taliban managed to recapture Kabul on August 15, 2021. This rapid takeover had profound consequences. For Iran, both the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s victory hold significant importance. However, the rise of the Taliban has raised doubts about Iran’s political and economic influence in Afghanistan. In this respect, the current study tried to answer the following research question: What conditions and consequences can be anticipated for Iran’s foreign policy following the U.S. military withdrawal? The beginning of the U.S. withdrawal from Iran’s neighboring territories on May 1, 2021, presents an opportunity to enhance Iran’s regional role; however, it also poses significant challenges. These include the emergence of an unstable Afghanistan under Taliban rule, the intensification of regional rivalries, the clash of different interpretations of political ideas of Islam, and a decline in Iran’s national security and influence in Afghanistan. Additionally, the proliferation of ethnic and Takfiri ideologies and increased insecurity in Iran’s eastern regions remain critical negative consequences.Literature ReviewThere have been studies examining the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and its implications for Iran’s national security. However, given the relatively short time since the recent developments in Afghanistan, the literature on the topic is limited. For instance, Verma (2022) in the article “Afghanistan, Regional Powers, and Non-Traditional Security Threats and Challenges,” argues that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan leads to instability that extends beyond Afghanistan’s borders. This instability is expected to result in non-traditional threats and challenges such as transnational Islamic fundamentalist terrorism, drug trafficking, migration, and a prolonged increase in violence within Afghanistan itself. In the relevant literature, there is a noticeable lack of analysis from the perspective of realism, particularly regarding Iran’s strategic options following the U.S. withdrawal and the consequences for its national security. The present study sought to address this gap by presenting a novel approach to the topic.Materials and MethodsThe present research aimed to identify the security threats posed to Iran’s national security by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Following an explanatory methodology, the study relied on a realist framework to analyze the data collected from online and library resources.Results and DiscussionThe U.S. military presence in Afghanistan since 2001, sustained at great costs over two decades, alongside persistent threats from the Taliban, eventually placed the prospect of withdrawing from Afghanistan on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Following the withdrawal, the Taliban—a movement deeply rooted in Afghan ethnic and cultural dynamics and known for its resistance against foreign occupiers—regained power with significant support from the Pashtun population in a favorable environment created by the U.S. withdrawal. Concerning Iran, one positive consequence of the Taliban’s return to power is the shared hostility of both sides toward the U.S. However, the Taliban’s declaration of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan introduces the possibility of ideological rivalry with Iran. Moreover, the expected terrorist threats in Iran’s surrounding regions is likely to impact domestic security, thus prompting increased migration of Afghans into Iran. Concerning its external consequences, the re-establishment of Taliban rule can expand the influence of countries such as Pakistan, Qatar, and Turkey in Afghanistan’s political landscape. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will intensify the competition among regional powers aiming to shape the country’s future, with Iran playing a key role. However, Iran may face additional challenges due to the Taliban’s ethnic-based approach—rooted in a 42% Pashtun population—and their monopolization of power. The insecurity stemming from the U.S. withdrawal is likely to trigger an increased wave of Afghan refugees heading toward Iran. Furthermore, the agreement between Afghanistan and the U.S. undermines Afghanistan’s traditional neutrality in Central and South Asian politics. This shift could lead to antagonistic actions against Iran within Afghan domestic politics and among its political factions, such as Tajiks and Pashtuns, as they navigate their future relationship with the United States. This dynamic intensifies regional competition, particularly between Iran and Pakistan. The emergence of a new Taliban government also threatens to weaken Iran’s regional position. Tehran’s rivals, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, maintain better relations with the Taliban group. In fact, the Taliban refers to the Turks as brotherly people while addressing Iran merely as a neighbor. In addition, there is currently no viable anti-Taliban coalition, and major powers—Russia, China, the E.U., and the U.S.—are engaging in dialogue with the Taliban. Another pressing issue for Iran’s national security is the water-sharing dispute with the Taliban. Iranian officials have recently accused the Taliban of violating Iran’s water rights by refusing to release water from the new Kamal Khan Dam on the Helmand River, which flows into Lake Hamoon in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province (Tookhy, 2022). If the Taliban were to rely on groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda to provide security in Afghanistan or carry out cross-border programs, Iran’s national security and its eastern borders would face serious challenges. Therefore, as Afghanistan’s close neighbor, Iran could encounter a new wave of emerging terrorism originating from Afghanistan.ConclusionThe withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has created an opportunity for Iran to play a more prominent role in the region, albeit with significant negative implications for its national security. The Iranian government views the Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan as a potential opportunity to expand its economic influence, which, in turn, can bolster Iran’s national security. However, the most critical consequence of the Taliban’s resurgence for Iran is the exacerbation of ethnic and religious divides, leading to increased insecurity and a heightened sense of relative deprivation in the country’s eastern regions. From this perspective, even if the Taliban succeeds in forming a government, their lack of popular support will likely prevent them from effectively controlling the threatening and destabilizing processes within Afghanistan’s borders. This domestic insecurity is expected to spill over into the broader region, including Iran, thereby posing additional threats to Iran’s national security.
International Relations
Seyed Hamzeh Safavi; Amirhossein Elhami; Ahmad Ramezani
Abstract
Introduction Since the late 1970s, China has steadily expanded its power and influence, now reaching ...
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Introduction Since the late 1970s, China has steadily expanded its power and influence, now reaching beyond East Asia and even the broader Asian continent. As a country’s power increases, its role and position in global and regional relations inevitably follow. In this context, the People’s Republic of China is widely regarded as an emerging powerstriving to solidify its regional position while also enhancing its influence in Southwest Asia. China’s engagement in Southwest Asia has transcended economic and trade activities, evolving into a more multifaceted and complex presence. This region holds strategic importance for China due to its geostrategic position, serving as a critical bridge connecting Central Asia, Europe, and Africa. Leveraging a variety of tools and strategies, China is working to integrate and strengthen its strategic presence in Southwest Asia in line with its national interests. In light of China’s rivalry with the U.S. and the implications of its regional presence for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it becomes essential to analyze the dimensions, mechanisms, and effects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. Such an examination can provide policymakers with valuable insights to better anticipate future developments and identify both opportunities and threats arising from China’s regional presence. In this respect, the present study aimed to explore the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Literature ReviewMany studies address China’s presence and strategy, with some specifically focusing on the Southwest Asia region. These studies explore various aspects of China’s policies, strategies, goals, and requirements for establishing its presence in the region. A review of the existing literature reveals a wealth of related research, much of which examines diverse aspects of China’s activities in Southwest Asia. However, some of these studies are historically outdated and fail to account for the evolution of China’s strategy since 2013, particularly following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These developments mark a significant shift in China’s regional approach, necessitating the revision and adjustment of certain variables in previous studies. Despite their limitations, these earlier studies are still valuable for shedding light on specific aspects of China’s strategic presence. More recent studies in the field overlap with the current research to varying degrees. Nevertheless, the key innovation and distinguishing feature of the present research lies in its effort to develop and outline possible scenarios of China’s strategic presence in the region. Furthermore, it aimed to assess the impact of these scenarios on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Materials and MethodsThe research onion model, developed by Saunders et al. (2019), is a prominent model for selecting research methodologies in the social sciences and humanities. Melnikovas (2018) adapted the research onion model to align with the field of future studies. The current study relied on Melnikovas’ adaptation of the research onion model. As an exploratory research, the present study used a mixed methods research design with a medium-term time horizon of 10 years. The data was collected through a combination of documentary and field research.Results and Discussion This research aimed to examine the impact of China’s strategic presence in Southwest Asia on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Relying on the interviews and documentary research, the analysis identified 67 driving forces influencing China’s future presence in the region, along with 7 major global-regional trends. Based on these driving forces and trends, a questionnaire was developed and then evaluated by 35 experts. Their validity was confirmed using the Lawshe coefficient for 55 driving forces and trends, while Cronbach’s alpha was used to confirm their reliability. By calculating the geometric mean of 55 driving forces and trends, the significance threshold was determined to be 3.57, while the uncertainty threshold was set at 2.69. Based on the importance–uncertainty method proposed by Martilla and James, 22 driving forces and trends surpassed these thresholds. In the next phase, the Friedman test was used to rank and refine the driving forces, resulting in the selection of 7 key driving forces. The qualitative aspects of these forces were then analyzed, and a cross-impact analysis matrix questionnaire was designed and distributed to 10 experts. The responses were processed using ScenarioWizard software, generating a balanced cross-impact matrix with 4 scenarios, all of which exhibited zero inconsistency. Finally, each scenario was delineated, detailed, and evaluated.Among the four scenarios, the first is the most desirable, the second is moderate and possible, the third is possible, and the fourth represents the worst scenario for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Each scenario carries distinct implications for Iran’s national security. The first scenario, called the Rise of the Dragon, suggests that China’s transit role, investments, and military–security cooperation with Iran will significantly enhance Iran’s national security. The second scenario, namely the Dragon’s Dream, portrays China’s balanced policy to expand interactions with all countries, which could adequately provide Iran’s national security. The most likely scenario, however, indicates limited Chinese investments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this scenario, Iran’s role as a corridor will be minimal, functioning primarily as a complement to other countries. Finally, the fourth scenario (i.e., the Dragon in the Cage) would have the most detrimental impact on Iran’s national security. Under this scenario, regional countries would dominate in areas such as investment, energy imports, and military–security cooperation with China. Iran–China relations would be restricted to energy exports and minimal goods imports.ConclusionIn the 10-year horizon, China’s priorities are expected to focus on several key areas. In the economic and technological infrastructure domain, China will work to enhance its influence and investments. In the military–security sphere, China will be prioritize increasing its influence and protecting its assets and national interests. In the social realm, China aims to maintain a positive image and the Chinese discourse, while in the political sphere, it will seek stability and neutrality. These priorities are supposed to have impact on China’s relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and with the broader region.Acknowledgments The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Research Center for Science and Studies of the Holy Defense for providing the resources and support necessary to conduct this research.
Public policy
Mostafa Kavakebyan; Azim Matin
Abstract
IntroductionPolitical development is a process that enhances the responsibility and accountability of the government in fulfilling its roles and duties. This involves not only increasing the number of political actors but also improving their quality. A key component of political development is the promotion ...
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IntroductionPolitical development is a process that enhances the responsibility and accountability of the government in fulfilling its roles and duties. This involves not only increasing the number of political actors but also improving their quality. A key component of political development is the promotion of political equality and public oversight. This ensures that all members of society have an equal opportunity to influence the political direction of their society and to monitor the activities, decision-making processes, and actions of the government. Furthermore, the optimal use of both potential and actual human resources is a critical prerequisite for achieving development. Women constitute a crucial part of this effective force, and their optimal involvement is essential. It is important to recognize that human resources in development theories are not limited to men (Afrakhteh & Saraei, 2013). The position of women in the political development of a country is vital for promoting gender equality and ensuring inclusive governance. Thus, increasing women’s participation is essential for advancing political and economic development. Highlighting the importance of women’s participation in political development, the present study aimed to examine the long-term and mid-term consequences of their involvement in development plans. Addressing the research problem is crucial for developing comprehensive strategies, policies, and interventions that promote gender equality, inclusive governance, and sustainable development. The development plan plays a key role in shaping a country’s path toward progress, serving as a practical guide for executive and administrative bodies. Iran’s Development Plans encompass a set of mid-term initiatives, approved by the Islamic Parliament of Iran, that span a five-year period under the current government.Literature ReviewThe issue of gender permeates all institutions, as well as the intellectual and value systems of society. It is essential for values, norms, beliefs, legal frameworks, government institutions, organizations, decision-making systems, and policymakers to be attuned and responsive to the need for equal opportunities, facilitates, and gender equality (Afrakhteh & Saraei, 2013). Amartya Kumar Sen, a prominent institutional economist, emphasizes the importance of making individuals more capable, particularly women. In his book Development as Freedom, Sen dedicated a chapter to the active role of women in driving social transformations (Sen, 1999). A critical factor contributing to various forms of inequality against women is the planning process. Policies, programs, resource allocation, and other aspects of planning frequently result in women receiving a disproportionately smaller share of welfare benefits and occupying a marginal position in development. This disparity is evident across key indicators such as education, health, employment, and political participation (Sen, 1999). Concerning the Persian-language literature, the book Women and Political Participation (2017) by Simin Hajipour Sardovii used a questionnaire, administered to both men and women, to collect and analyze the relevant data. It explored structural barriers and gender issues in the dynamics of male–female relations in society. Moroever, in The Position of Women in the Progress of Society in Iran’s Five-Year Development Plans (2018), Mohammadi critically evaluated feminist theories while conceptualizing Islamic perspectives on women’s roles in society. Using a theoretical framework rooted in Islamic thought, the author examined women’s interactions and the concept of development, focusing on the involvement and support for women within the context of Iran’s First to Fifth Development Plans.Materials and Methods The present study used thematic analysis to examine the content of Iran’s Fifth and Sixth Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Plans. This process involved collecting relevant materials, including interviews, articles, and guidelines, related to women’s political participation and their position in Iran’s Development Plans. The data was then analyzed to identify key themes and patterns concerning women’s empowerment, gender equality, and political development.Results and DiscusssionThe research hypothesis posits that enhancing political development indicators for women in Iran, through the country’s five-year development plans, will help dismantle structures of inequality and strengthen women’s empowerment. Guided by this hypothesis and a robust theoretical framework, the study yielded several key findings. First, women’s political participation was identified as a critical aspect of political development. Second, the analysis highlighted structural barriers and gender issues that hinder women’s active participation in political processes. Additionally, the study examined the contribution of Iran’s Development Plans in advancing women’s empowerment and promoting gender equality. Fourth, the research explored the strategies and policies necessary to increase women’s political participation and ensure equal opportunities in social and political arenas. Finally, the study assessed the progress made and the challenges encountered in achieving women’s empowerment and gender equality within the framework of Iran’s Development Plans.ConclusionThe findings can have significant implications for policymakers, government agencies, and organizations involved in development planning and implementation. Drawing on the concept of capability, Amartya Sen emphasizes the individual’s ability to utilize facilities, resources, and goods in alignment with their diverse human characteristics. The current research underscored the critical role of women’s political participation in fostering inclusive governance and gender equality in development plans. The strategies and policies identified in this study provide valuable guidelines for enhancing women’s empowerment and creating an environment conducive to their active participation in decision-making. By addressing both the challenges and opportunities associated with women’s participation, the study contributes to the formulation of comprehensive and effective development plans that benefit the whole societ.
