Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Environment and Passive Defense, Research Institute for the Sciences and Education of the Holy Defense, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Candidate in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time horizon is medium-term (10 years) and data collection is also mixed (documentary-field). First, by document study and interviews, 67 driving forces of China's strategic presence in 8 parameters of PESTEL+DS (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, defense and security) In addition to 7 global - regional trends were identified. Then, with questionnaire the effectiveness, importance and uncertainty of them was determined (according to the Lawshe coefficient, the validity of 55 driving forces - trends was confirmed and 19 driving forces - trends did not achieve the desired validity). in total, 22 driving forces - trends above the significance and uncertainty threshold values were selected. Then, with Friedman's test, 7 driving forces were selected, and their qualitative states were also extracted. Finally, 4 scenarios with zero inconsistency were drafted and edited with the questionnaire of cross influence matrix and scenario wizard software, and their effects on the national security of IRI were evaluated.
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