Iranian Domestic Policy
Noorollah Gheisari; Mostafa Ghorbani
Abstract
Introduction Identity discourses play a critical role in defining the self and the other, as well as the relationship between the two. Political actors use these discourses to determine their alliances and rivalries, making them a significant factor in political conflicts. In ...
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Introduction Identity discourses play a critical role in defining the self and the other, as well as the relationship between the two. Political actors use these discourses to determine their alliances and rivalries, making them a significant factor in political conflicts. In Iran, following the Islamic Revolution, conflicts among the political elites were minimal as long as they shared a common identity discourse. However, the emergence of adaptionist identity discourse of religious intellectuals replaced the return-to-self discourse, and had influence on some Left-leaning political elites, leading to fundamental changes in political conflicts. The previous research on political conflicts in Iran has largely overlooked the fundamental role of identity discourses in shaping conflicts among political elites. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the impact of identity discourses on the conflicts among political elites in the Islamic Republic of Iran during 1997–2019. Theoretical Framework This research intended to examine the mechanism by which the evolution of identity discourses has influenced the conflicts among political elites in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Concerning the theoretical framework, the study employed the discourse theory of Laclau and Mouffe and the theory of the elite proposed by Lowell Field, John Higley, and Michael Burton. Resarch Methodology The research methodology involved identifying structural similarities and providing causal explanations to explain the relationship between the variables. Conclusions The research findings indicated that the emergence of adaptionist identity discourse of religious intellectuals and its influence on some Left-leaning political elites (modern Leftists) led to a decrease in structural and value convergence among political elites in the Islamic Republic of Iran. As a result, conflicts among elite blocs during the period under study became more frequent, intense, and multifaceted, extending beyond the realm of discourse. In the adaptionist identity discourse of religious intellectuals, the central signifier, self, other, and the mechanism of othering underwent significant changes, compared to the identity discourse of the return-to-self, and influenced the modern Leftists. As a result, they defined a new movement identity for themselves and questioned not only the rival elite but also the value of existing institutions at the level of governance system. The emerging stances were influenced by the identity discourse of religious intellectuals accepted by some political elites, resulting in the transformation of othering mechanisms. These changes had a profound effect on the previously united political elites, leading to a shift in their structural and value solidarity. Consequently, conflicts arose over the advancement of political Islam or democratization. The social base of the Leftists also underwent changes, shifting away from traditional and lower strata towards the urban middle class and forming political alliances with forces outside of political Islam, such as Freedom Movement. Meanwhile, the traditional right responded to the discursive and organizational changes of their rivals through similar reconstruction efforts, which in turn intensified the conflicts among elite blocs. As a result, the relations among political elites in the Islamic Republic of Iran became increasingly divided and intensified over time. According to the analysis, the conflicts among political elites during 1997–2019 were centered on several key issues, including their attitude towards the Islamic Revolution and its existential philosophy, approaches to solving the country’s problems and promoting progress, orientation towards the international system, and management of cultural issues. Conflicts arose around these new bipolar issues, resulting in the formation of two opposing poles. One pole is characterized by evolutionist, justice-oriented, introverted, and conservative approach in foreign relations, while subscribing to maximalism in the sphere of culture. The other pole is thermidorian, libertarian, extroverted, and developmantalist in foreign relations, but with a minimalistic approach in the sphere of culture. The latter pole has grown in size following the events of 2009. Given the identity-based and discursive nature of conflicts among political elites and factions in the Islamic Republic, as well as their links to social cleavages and foreign relations issues, it appears that a clear path to resolving these conflicts in the short term is unlikely. To address these conflicts, the first step is to reconstruct existing identity discourses in a way that preserves the core of Iranian identity while also taking into account the emerging needs of society and incorporating them into the articulation of the Iranian identity discourse. Other steps that could be taken include empowering political factions, viewing political activity as a professional rather than a seasonal or electoral activity, promoting interaction and dialogue among elites and factions to eliminate their stereotypical perceptions about each other, improving the quality of elite conflicts by focusing on the country’s priority issues, promoting localism and indigenous thinking to solve the country’s problems, limiting the radical factions and giving more weight to moderate and convergent factions, and strengthening the political training of elites and activists in political factions. These measures should be considered by both political factions and governance institutions.
Political Sociology
Taha Ashayeri; Akbar Zolfaghari; Tahereh Jahanparvar; Faezeh Raghami
Abstract
IntroductionPolitical–ethnic violence arises from abrupt, heterogeneous, and disruptive social development and changes that lead to social disorganization and multidimensional anomie. Related to the social structure, political violence results from the unequal distribution of opportunities, discrimination, ...
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IntroductionPolitical–ethnic violence arises from abrupt, heterogeneous, and disruptive social development and changes that lead to social disorganization and multidimensional anomie. Related to the social structure, political violence results from the unequal distribution of opportunities, discrimination, and deprivation, carrying destabilizing consequences for the political system. Experts identify several factors as causes of political–ethnic violence, including the erosion of social capital, increasing individualism, declining civil cohesion, economic pressures, widening class gaps, discrimination, and external provocations. In this respect, the present research aimed to investigate the factors underlying political–ethnic violence by adopting a meta-analysis approach, focusing on the researches conducted during 2007–2021. Materials and MethodsThe research method employed in this study is a quantitative meta-analysis. The researcher identified relevant studies by conducting a comprehensive review of the literature and researches conducted during 2007–2021, focusing specifically on political–ethnic violence. A sample size of 20 documents was selected after careful consideration of methodological rigor, reliability, and validity. The documents were then categorized and organized according to the research method, sample size, correlation coefficients, significance level, statistical population, and publication year. The values of correlation coefficients, sample size, and significance level, were entered into the second edition of Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. The Q-test, together with the funnel chart, was utilized to assess the homogeneity or heterogeneity of the studies. After confirming the heterogeneity hypothesis, the research employed a moderating (contextual) to measure its impact on political violence.Table 1. Summary of Meta-Analysis Research Results and DiscussionThe findings of the study revealed a significant relationship between various factors and the political–ethnic violence. The identified factors are related to discrimination (including social, political, and economic discrimination), identity (including religious identity, ethnic identity, ethnic subculture patterns, and national identity), deprivation (including cultural, political, and social deprivation), social capital (such as sociopolitical cohesion, trust, participation, awareness, and low political culture), psychological makeup (involving feelings of ethnic dignity, social satisfaction, ethnic tension and difference, alienation, and social isolation), and context (such as education, income, and social class). According to the results, there is a higher tendency towards political–ethnic violence among males (18%) compared to females (15%). Furthermore, the study indicates that the level of political–ethnic violence is higher Turkish (19%) and Lur and Arab ethnic groups (17%) followed by a more moderate level in Kurdish (12%) and Persian (11%) ethnic groups. The Baloch and Turkmen ethnic groups exhibit a lower tendency towards political-ethnic violence with the figure of 10%. In addition, the findings suggest that the inclination towards political violence is higher in less developed areas (18%), moderate in developing regions (13%), and lower in developed areas (10%). ConclusionThe results indicate that political violence is deeply rooted in society and culture, often triggered by rapid and sudden social changes, class and economic gaps, and social disorganization over time. The failure of social institutions to regulate class dynamics effectively creates a sense of multiple deprivation among ethnic groups, leading to the emergence of political–ethnic violence. Media advertisements, both domestic and foreign, and the influence of sectarian movements in the real world and cyberspace also play a significant role in initiating, perpetuating, and intensifying political violence. The decline in sociopolitical capital, widening social and class disparities, and a sense of multiple deprivation and multidimensional anomie provide fertile ground for violence to flourish. The greater the sense of failure, deprivation, and frustration, the higher the likelihood of aggression towards the perceived source of these problems. Moreover, the severity of deprivation directly correlates with the intensity of violence. Mass media amplifies and accelerates psychological pressure for radical and violent actions. The weakening management, control, organization, and efficiency of social structures provide the ground for anomie and social disorder, ultimately leading to the emergence of political violence as a response to the relative deprivation, discrimination, and social isolation.
Iranian Domestic Policy
Nima Shabafrooz; Ali Morshedizad; Hoseenali Nozari; Hamid Ahmadi
Abstract
Introduction Both in pre- and in post-Revolution periods, Iran’s critical geopolitical and geostrategic position, as well as its revolutionary Islamic ideology, has made it a highly important player at both the regional and international levels. This sensitive and perilous position has exposed ...
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Introduction Both in pre- and in post-Revolution periods, Iran’s critical geopolitical and geostrategic position, as well as its revolutionary Islamic ideology, has made it a highly important player at both the regional and international levels. This sensitive and perilous position has exposed the country to various incidents and events, including economic sanctions, recreation and overt and covert support of terrorist groups, and the sale of advanced weapons to regional actors. The resulting scenarios and potential power vacuums could create a divide in political participation and society, leading to a legitimacy gap, questions of authority, and a disruption of national unity. Given the importance of the current moment and the conditions ahead, it is essential for scholarly community to analyze and provide solutions for potential crises related to political participation. Furthermore, numerous domestic and structural obstacles have emerged as significant challenges to political participation in the Islamic Republic of Iran over the past four decades, leading to a crisis and serious problems in political participation.The crisis of political participation is a clear indication of an ineffective political system. This crisis stems from a growing gap between the people and the governance system, eroding trust between political leaders and people and causing a rift between the state and the nation. This lack of trust in political leaders impedes people’s willingness to participate in the political process, resulting in political deadlocks and potentially dire consequences for society. The Purpose of ResearchThe purpose of this research was to examine the interrelated effects of multiple crises, including inefficiency, distribution, identity, influence, and legitimacy crises, on the political system, with a particular focus on the presidency of Hassan Rouhani. The research question is, what are the consequences of crises for active political participation?MethodologyThis research employed a descriptive–analytical method, utilizing a cross-sectional study of a particular time period. FindingsBy exploring the correlations and conflicts between data, the study confirms that any political crisis signals a decrease in authority and legitimacy, ultimately resulting in a decline in active political participation and a crisis in the political system. The events of December 2017, the rise in price of gasoline and the unrest of November 2019, the Ukrainian plane crash, the crisis of inefficiency in price control, broken promises, and the distribution crisis led to a growing class divide and the decline of the urban middle class. Moreover, the gap between the language used by the governance system and the language of the people, the people’s demands and how they interacted with the political system, and the quality of their influence on politics can only be evaluated by criteria such as political participation. It is important to note that various events and occurrences, influenced by political actors and competing, parallel forces both inside and outside the government’s decision-making, have contributed to the widening scope of the crisis. However, for the purposes of this study, the term crisis refers specifically to the period of Rouhani’s administration.Discussion and ConclusionThe analysis revealed that the inefficiency crisis and distribution crisis, along with more institutionalized crises of identity and influence, erodes legitimacy at different levels, thereby reducing political participation. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between crises and political participation, highlighting how the inefficiency of Rouhani’s government and its inability to distribute economic and political resources fairly led to a decline in legitimacy, increased dissatisfaction, and a drop in political participation. Specifically, four major failures of the 11th and 12th governments were identified, namely, foreign policy failures, mismanagement of the Ministry of Science, failure to control the monetary and financial crisis in various markets, and failure to manage COVID–19 pandemic.
Political Science
Ali TadayyonRad; Sara Najafpour
Abstract
Introduction Having a clear understanding of the features, elements, and components of storytelling from a political perspective can enhance its effectiveness in conveying complex concepts in the field of political science. Additionally, it can provide an invaluable tool for analyzing and evaluating ...
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Introduction Having a clear understanding of the features, elements, and components of storytelling from a political perspective can enhance its effectiveness in conveying complex concepts in the field of political science. Additionally, it can provide an invaluable tool for analyzing and evaluating ideas presented in a narrative format. This research aimed to examine the status and concept of storytelling, along with its key functions and elements, in the political sphere as presented in the works of Hannah Arendt. The study tried to answer the following research questions: What is the status, function, and concept of storytelling in Arendt’s ideas, and what are its essential elements and components? To answer the questions, the research conducted a descriptive–analytical examination of Arendt’s works and ideas.Literature ReviewNumerous studies have explored the relationship between storytelling and politics from various perspectives, with a significant number dedicated to political analysis of different stories and narratives. However, few studies have focused on the status, function, and components of storytelling in politics from a political perspective. Despite the valuable research already conducted in this area, a review of the literature reveals that further investigation is needed to understand the unique patterns and methods for analyzing and interpreting political stories and understanding the status of stories in politics, their components, and the relationship between storytelling and politics. This research represents a small step towards filling this gap in the literature.MethodologyFollowing a qualitative approach, the present research adopted a phenomenological method developed by Hannah Arendt. Considered as a model to understand politics, Arendt’s phenomenological perspective emphasizes the (im)possibility of understanding unprecedented and unique events and occurrences; the critique of essentialism, scientism, and historicism; and the circular, practical, situated, and universal nature of phenomena (Tadayyon-Rad et al., 2015).This method diverges from the behavioral, positivist, and scientific paradigms employed in humanities and social sciences, which aim to explain phenomena by identifying their causes, motives, and rules. Instead, the phenomenological framework for understanding political experiences and phenomena entails two dimensions: a critical, disruptive, and eliminative dimension that involves deconstructing prejudices and metaphysical fallacies, and an affirmative and constructive dimension that involves the inclusion of various methods. The rejection of metaphysical fallacies and reductionist and deterministic methods of modern science is due to their disregard for the reality of human existence and life on earth by highlighting theories of parallel universe, solipsism, etc. Concerning the positive and affirmative dimension of the model, specific methods for understanding the world and politics are employed, including storytelling, imagination of the researcher as a situated and neutral observer, differentiation, the use of paradoxes and their analysis to gain understanding, and the use of taste and imagination in comprehension.Within this framework, this article first examined Hannah Arendt’s criticisms of modern models and methods of understanding and expression. This helps to know what should not be there in gaining a clearer understanding of the story as a viable alternative that should be there. The concept of action, as a fundamental concept in Arendt’s intellectual system, was introduced and discussed. Then the study proceeded to analyze storytelling and its components and functions in Arendt’s ideas by examining her important and relevant works.ConclusionThere is a mutual relationship between the story and politics. Politicians and political actors often use stories to justify their actions, persuade their followers or audiences, and steer trends and actors in a desired direction through compelling narratives. Stories also help to explain causal relationships, foster greater understanding among people, and play a significant role in building collective identity and shaping collective memory among humans. For Arendt, the relationship between fiction and politics has specific components and functions that are closely tied to the foundations of her political philosophy, including the concept of action. Arendt viewed action as intersubjective, creative, initiatory, global, linguistic, and conversational, which involves public presence, initiative, dialogue, speech, reasoning, persuasion, determination in the path of ideals, and protest against the wrong. According to Arendt, stories have the capacity to express, manifest, and convey all the possibilities of action, and as such, they possess unique functions and components.This study demonstrated that stories—compared to any analysis, philosophy, or history—offer a richer platform for the expression, emergence, depiction, and comprehension of actions, events, and political and social phenomena. Stories reveal the unique identities and characteristics of heroes, actors, and phenomena without reducing them to a linear chain of causal relationships or integrating theories. They offer a narrative of the intersubjective world and human plurality, while also serving as a means of achieving immortality. As stated by Arendt, courage and the mark of heroism belong to the speech and activism of the protagonist.
Public policy
Mohammad Yari; Mohammad Ziaaddini; Mostafa Hadavinejad; Mehdi Ebrahiminejad
Abstract
IntroductionThis study aimed to use process mining to address the issue of anti-meritocracy in the public sector and develop a conceptual model that highlights the importance of utilizing the skills and talents of the elite. The study began by conducting interviews with 17 experts in the field, which ...
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IntroductionThis study aimed to use process mining to address the issue of anti-meritocracy in the public sector and develop a conceptual model that highlights the importance of utilizing the skills and talents of the elite. The study began by conducting interviews with 17 experts in the field, which led to the identification of 302 initial themes through open coding. From these themes, 16 categories were extracted and grouped into causal conditions (including individual components like Machiavellianism, group components like unhealthy competition, and organizational components such as the possibility of power shifts within the organization), strategies (such as excluding the elite from the public sphere), background conditions (including personal attributes like narcissism and behavioral traits like unhealthy competition), and intervening conditions (such as inappropriate organizational structures). The central category identified was the tendency towards anti-meritocracy, with consequences including the non-acceptance of elite forces. The research findings highlight the importance of utilizing the expertise of the elite in decision-making processes, as failure to do so can hinder the public sector’s strengths and turn opportunities into threats.Statement of the problem The increasing importance of human resource initiatives and the recognition of the value of elite individuals have led many organizations to seek effective solutions by employing their talents. This trend has been particularly evident in elite development organizations within the government sector. The significance of employee talent and the pursuit of enhancing their knowledge and skills have become a global issue, with organizations striving to promote a culture of organizational talent management within their communities (Guth et al., 2012). Managing elite human resources effectively is crucial for improving organizational performance, as recognizing and leveraging their latent talents is a prerequisite for growth and prosperity. This is especially important for managers and leaders of government organizations, which are subject to greater scientific scrutiny due to their dynamic nature. As the public sector becomes more complex, capable leaders are increasingly in demand (Sejeli & Abu Mansor, 2015). In this line, the present study aimed to address the primary question of what the process of anti-meritocracy in the public sector entails. Sub-questions explored various aspects of anti-meritocracy, including its main categories, causal conditions, background conditions, intervening conditions, strategies of action and interaction, and consequences. The primary purpose of this research was to conduct a process mining analysis of anti-meritocracy in the public sector. Specific objectives included identifying the main categories of anti-meritocracy in the public sector, investigating its causal, background, and intervening conditions, examining strategies of action and interaction, and comprehending its consequences.MethodThe study used grounded theory as the research strategy. This systematic and qualitative approach is used to create a comprehensive theory that explains a wide-scale process, action, or interaction concerning a given topic. Therefore, grounded theory was deemed a suitable approach to investigate the process of anti-meritocracy in the public sector.SuggestionsPublic sector human resources departments should develop and implement elite recruitment strategies based on internal and external environmental factors. Research results should be communicated to organizational leaders to keep them informed of the status of elite recruitment and enable them to maintain and improve their strengths, reduce weaknesses, take advantage of opportunities, and minimize losses caused by threats. The dimensions and components of the evaluation of the public sector environment to attract the elite should be communicated to organizations to monitor their situation at specific times.Comprehensive programs should be formulated to create active and dynamic environments for human resources, providing the ground for the development of creativity and innovation for the elite in order to retain them. Intellectual property laws should be adopted and regulations should be approved to increase the motivation of elite individuals and prevent them from leaving the public sector. Protecting the rights of intellectual property is considered one of the inalienable rights of the elite and effective laws that can help motivate them. Using the meritocracy and succession can help to utilize the abilities and talents of the elite, avoid politicization, and prevent them from leaving the public sector. This can also increase their motivation to serve in the public sector.The experts suggested several ways to combat anti-meritocracy in the public sector. One approach is to create more opportunities for talented individuals and ensure that rules and regulations are properly implemented. Additionally, establishing a performance evaluation system with executive guarantees can help promote a merit-based culture. It is also important to rely on individuals who are part of the elite group, believe in the value of meritocracy, and are willing to trust the elite to address the country’s challenges. To further promote meritocracy, it is crucial to train individuals committed to eliminating anti-meritocracy. This can involve avoiding appointing individuals who are jealous, as the elite typically have high occupational expectations.
Developments in the Middle East
Abozar Rafiee Ghohsareh
Abstract
Introduction U Islam has always played a significant role in politics and governance in Islamic societies, ...
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Introduction U Islam has always played a significant role in politics and governance in Islamic societies, owing to its political and social nature. This role and significance have led authoritarian regimes in these countries to use Islam for legitimizing their actions in both domestic and foreign policy. The UAE government is a prime example in this respect, as it has manipulated religion and brought it in line with politics. To harmonize religion with its domestic and foreign policy, the UAE government has established its own religious institutions and attracted prominent religious figures, particularly after the so-called Arab Spring. These institutions appear to be independent, but they are fully supported by the UAE government in practice. In addition, prominent Sunni religious figures that support Sufi and non-political Islam are appointed as their leaders.Research Question(s)What were the goals of the UAE government in harmonizing religion with its foreign policy and what measures did it take to achieve these goals?ConclusionThe UAE government has taken extensive measures to deal with Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to prevent the spread of the Arab Spring and its potential dangers. One of the measures in this line is creating religious and intellectual foundations to counter Islamism. In response to the Arab Spring, the UAE government established institutions like Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, the Fatwa Council, Tabah Foundation, and other religious centers. It also attracted renowned scholars with mystical and non-political leanings, such as Sheikh Abdallah bin Bayyah, Sheikh Hamza Yusuf, Habib Ali Zain al-Abidin al-Jifri, and Ali Nayed. These religious centers have significant financial support from the UAE government and are in competition with religious institutions supported by Qatar’s government. They promote an apolitical or neo-traditionalist Islam that opposes revolution, advocates maintaining the status quo, and supports unquestioning obedience to ruling political systems—a tendency which is also called theology of obedience.The UAE government has tried to use religious institutions to legitimize its actions in the field of politics, especially in the field of foreign policy. In this article, three examples of the efforts made by the political system ruling the UAE to "harmonize religion with foreign policy" have been examined: the Arab Spring, cutting off relations with Qatar, and establishing relations with Israel. In all three of these cases, the mentioned religious institutions fully supported the positions and actions of the UAE government and tried to create religious legitimacy for these actions and positions. In fact, the political system ruling the UAE has been very interested in using religious institutions and figures to legitimize its controversial policies inside and outside the country.
International Relations
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Saeed Shokoohi
Abstract
Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more ...
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Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more important, than the events themselves. Regardless of the actual situation and reality, decision-makers act based on their perception of what is happening. This underscores the crucial role that cognitive and mental factors play in shaping the behavior of actors. When analyzing international political issues, it is necessary to distinguish between the operational milieu and psychological milieu. This is especially important when major or acute issues of the international system are at play, and emotions, nationalism, or ideology come into play. Currently, during Joe Biden’s presidency, the relationship between China and the US is experiencing one of its worst periods, and rhetorical tensions between the two countries have escalated. In this context, the possibility of non-emotional dialogues and understanding significantly has decreased. Instead, both sides are arranging their policies and reactions based on their perceptions of each other’s intentions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the issue of perceptions and misperceptions between these two rival countries.Research QuestionsThis article aimed to analyze how Chinese elites perceive the intentions and policies of American officials towards Beijing. Understanding the perceptions of Chinese elites can shed light on their behavior and reactions to events in the international system for outside observers. For the purposes of this research, Chinese elites refer to influential groups in policymaking and public opinion, including policymakers, university professors, researchers, journalists, and businessmen. Specifically, this study explored Chinese elites’ perceptions of US intentions, Washington’s policies towards Taiwan and India, the rivalry between the two countries, and Beijing’s future role in the international order.Literature ReviewDespite the critical importance of understanding China’s perceptions and misperceptions of US policies and goals, there has been limited research conducted on the topic. Boullenois et al. (2018) published a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, which studied the three distinct perceptions of Trump held by Chinese elites. Kennedy (2007) explored the US policies towards Taiwan and the perceptions of those policies among Chinese elites, while Sinkkonen and Elovainio (2020) surveyed the views of Chinese students and the educated class on the threats posed by America and Japan. Their findings indicated that students who consumed Chinese media for extended periods were more likely to be sympathetic to the media’s narrative of the enmity of Japan and America. In 2015, the Carnegie Institute published an analytical report titled “Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other” (Johnston & Shen, 2015), which analyzed Chinese people’s attitudes towards Americans and themselves, China’s role in international leadership, and the role of American parties in Chinese politics. Similar to the previous studies, the present research aimed to examine Chinese elites’ perceptions of the US policies and intentions and their impact on Beijing’s foreign policy. However, this study innovatively relied on authentic surveys and Chinese sources to extract and analyze the Chinese elites’ views about the US.MethodologyThis research employed the method of directed qualitative content analysis to extract and analyze Chinese elites’ perceptions of US policies and intentions towards Beijing. Directed qualitative content analysis is a deductive approach that begins by determining the variables and key concepts of the research based on a theoretical framework and existing literature. Then, the researcher collects, codes, and analyzes data related to these variables and concepts. In this study, the data related to the variables specified in the conceptual framework was collected from the Chinese elites’ views and interviews, as well as the review of the existing literature in the field. The collected date was then coded, decoded, and analyzed within the conceptual framework. Finally, the study went on to examine the effects of those perceptions on China–US relations. The variables were also categorized based on the items specified in the conceptual framework.ResultsThe research findings indicate that Chinese elites perceive the US as follows: 1) China’s main enemy, 2) China’s identity enemy, 3) China’s main rival in international leadership, 4) China’s main economic and technological competitor, and 5) the challenger to China’s regional power. According to the results, younger elites are less pessimistic than their older counterparts, while businessmen hold a more pessimistic outlook than political or academic elites. Discussion A crucial element in China–US relations is the perception that the window of strategic opportunity is closing. According to the analysis, Chinese decision-makers view the favorable foreign environment as a strategic opportunity for China’s growth. The US was preoccupied with issues in other regions and did not actively seek to curb China, which created a strategic opportunity for China. However, many Chinese strategists now believe that this strategic opportunity is diminishing, and China will face increased pressure going forward. This shift in the strategic environment is likely to alter Beijing’s calculations and approach. These factors have contributed to China’s more assertive and confrontational foreign policy towards the US inrecent years, while attempting to manage the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.ConclusionThe rigorous economic policies imposed by the US on China have led many Chinese experts to perceive that America is in decline while China is on the rise, and this trend cannot be halted in the long term. Additionally, China’s skepticism towards international norms and institutions dominated by the West, particularly the US, has grown. When these norms and institutions impinge on China’s critical interests, Beijing’s distrust and confrontational stance intensify.By observing the US policies, China concludes that the US easily uses international norms and institutions to advance its own interests and resorts to double standards. Deep pessimism towards international norms lies in the realistic view among many Chinese strategists that the international system is ultimately an anarchic system in which the most powerful actors determine the rules. What is important is the relative power of the country and its material capacities.Finally, some US policies have made Chinese elites worry that America may create more problems for China. For example, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions concerning climatic changes, free trade, and arms control has concerned China. Moreover, according to the Chinese, America ignores the trade problems of other countries and blames others for its own problems. Therefore, China considers America a troublesome country. This situation will not only reduce the economicinterdependence between the two countries in the long term, but also intensify the possibility of conflict between the two.
International Relations
hossein delavar; Rashid Recabian
Abstract
Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic ...
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Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic and global spheres to respond to the emerging requirements. This has led scholars to debate the consequences of this balancing model for the decision-making circles of the world states, especially for the US and the international order.Significance and ObjectivesThe present article intended to analyze the prospect of change in the contemporary international order (structural order) by examining whether new poles are emerging in the current international order or not.The Main Question What are the consequences and challenges of China’s behavioral pattern for the United States and the structural international order?Research Hypothesis This research is based on the hypothesis that China’s behavioral pattern presents complex challenges to the US general policy towards China. This points to the uncertainties in predicting the consequences of China’s rise, in which policymakers face challenges in choosing between containment or engagement policy. China’s behavioral pattern is also seen as a reason for changing the structure of the international system and shaping the China–US bipolar order. In this respect, the following two points were suggested and discussed. First, the power gap between China and the United States will become almost equal, resulting in a dual superpower scenario where the United States will lose its superiority over China. Second, the strategic competition between China and the US will be very different from the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. China and the US will continue to cooperate in various fields (e.g., economy), while they may have conflicts in political and military domains.Research Method The present research used the historical research method with a descriptive–analytical and explanatory approach.Theoretical Framework This study used defensive structural realism as its theoretical framework in order to analyze the systemic characteristics of the international order, including the distribution and increase of power, and explain their effects on the behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is considered as the most important variable in the paradigm of structural realism.Kenneth Waltz’s theory of international politics offers a clear example of defensive structural realism. The present article contends that Waltz’s perspective should be taken seriously not only because it is the most accurate or realistic theory, but because it provides useful categories for comprehending reality. For instance, his concept of polarity determination helps to shape the behavioral priorities of countries and structural order of power distribution among units, which can be measured and typically changes in response to shifts in power among major states. Additionally, his focus on some kind of cooperation in the discussion on balance of power is also a valuable analytical category.Article Text Due to the post-Cold War international conditions, China has adopted a macro model of balancing, at domestic and global levels, in its strategic relationships with the US. Domestically, China has focused on building up its internal capabilities, while on the global stage it has pursued soft balancing. China’s balancing strategy in the unipolar world order is a reasonable and pragmatic response to its interests, capabilities, and strategic environment. Like any other government, China seeks to maximize its benefits and minimize losses in the field of foreign relations. Showing a keen awareness of the evolving international system, China has adeptly seized opportunities and confronted challenges. However, this behavioral pattern has important consequences and challenges for the international order, particularly for the US as the dominant pole.The balancing strategy pursued by China has generated complex conditions for decision-makers across the international system, particularly in the US as the superpower. Its most significant impact has been on the mentality of elites and their interpretation of the new realities, which has prompted a need to reassess American foreign policy.China’s behavioral pattern has enabled it to capitalize on broad opportunities and emerge as a decisive player in international politics, with its ongoing quest for power likely to have significant implications for the future of international politics. However, this development is closely tied to America’s position as the dominant pole of the international order, making the strategic relations between the two countries increasingly intertwined. As a result, managing these relations has become the most pressing issue in international politics, with stability and crisis in the global order at stake. As such, analyzing the pattern underlying China’s behavior and its relations with the US is critical for understanding the changing international order and its future trajectory.ConclusionChina is neither an ally nor a partner of the US and does not feel obligated to align its policies with those of America. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not adopt an explicitly adversarial stance towards the US. This has created challenges and consequences for the overall US policy towards China, and introduced uncertainties that pose significant challenges for policymakers in choosing between a policy of containment or engagement. An examination of the challenges posed by China’s behavioral pattern suggests that a combination of containment and engagement policies is more effective in serving American interests when dealing with China. While addressing the concerns of proponents of containment, the hybrid policy also attempts to avoid the pitfalls of mutual hostility, which is a major concern of supporters of engagement. This policy reflects the uncertainty in Washington about China’s future goals and capabilities. However, if China were to pursue regional hegemony or launch an attack on Taiwan, the hybrid policy could shift towards containment. Conversely, if China were to democratize and cooperate, this containment-plus-engagement policy could be replaced by a more cooperative relationship between the two countries.
