International Relations
Abolfazl Anaei
Abstract
The decline of the hegemonic cycle of the United States and the shift of the systematic geographic core of world capital accumulation towards China in the recent capitalist crisis have brought about fundamental changes in the mechanisms of the world system. In this sphere, the analysis of the systemic ...
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The decline of the hegemonic cycle of the United States and the shift of the systematic geographic core of world capital accumulation towards China in the recent capitalist crisis have brought about fundamental changes in the mechanisms of the world system. In this sphere, the analysis of the systemic transformation of capitalist based on the uncertain development process of Chinese hegemonic control over the world system is a necessity in understanding structural metamorphosis world system and the structural tendency of the late capitalist crisis. Therefore, the main question of the article is stated as follows: What will be the consequence(s) of the transition to the possible fourth cycle of Chinese hegemony in the reconstruction of the capitalist world system ? The hypothesis of the article indicates that the possible fourth cycle of Chinese hegemony will be the origin for the development of the horizontal management of the world system and the emergence of multiple international centers of power. The method of the article will be configured in the form of systemic analysis based on the creation of a theoretical model combining the world-systems analysis and the theory of uncertainty in systemic bifurcations.
International Relations
Mohammad Ali Basiri; Milad Mirinamniha
Abstract
Conceptually, identity refers to a set of perceptual characteristics of people and human societies to distinguish them from each other. This concept has always transformed into a pretext to satisfy the subjective interests of governments at transnational levels. Securitization is one of the important ...
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Conceptually, identity refers to a set of perceptual characteristics of people and human societies to distinguish them from each other. This concept has always transformed into a pretext to satisfy the subjective interests of governments at transnational levels. Securitization is one of the important strategies to implement this process, but the experiences resulting from the application of this strategy in different eras always show damage to the objective development of the countries in the long term. Therefore, the question is how identity securitization in foreign policy causes conflict between subjective and objective interests. Emphasizing Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and China as examples, the researchers' hypothesis states that identity securitization in foreign policy causes the deterioration of the objective development of the country and the crystallization of its conflict with the subjective interests of government due to the depletion of economic and human resources to impose semantic coercive on others, along with the obvious reaction of others to this action. Taking advantage of the innovative analytical orientation based on the Copenhagen school's securitization theory, ultimately led to the confirmation of the mentioned hypothesis in the end. The method of this research was descriptive-analytical combined with the use of library and
International Relations
Zahra Akbari; Gholam Reza Haddad
Abstract
In recent years, we have witnessed competition between China and the United States that includes various aspects. The competition between these two is an opportunity for Iran to make the most of it by defining new strategies and avoiding direct involvement in future tensions. Based on the concept of ...
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In recent years, we have witnessed competition between China and the United States that includes various aspects. The competition between these two is an opportunity for Iran to make the most of it by defining new strategies and avoiding direct involvement in future tensions. Based on the concept of smart power and in order to achieve the best strategies, in addition to domestic weaknesses and strengths, we should also pay attention to the threats and opportunities created by the competition between the two. Therefore, in response to the central question of the research: What are the best strategies for Iran to take advantage of the competition between China and America? The information has been collected using documentary-library sources and semi-structured interviews with experts. In this pattern; Strengths + opportunities: aggressive strategies, strengths + threats: conservative strategies, weaknesses + opportunities: competitive strategies, and weaknesses + threats: defensive strategies. The main strategies mentioned include the simultaneous use of the technologies of the two powers while trying to reduce dependence on the parties; Paying attention to the category of public-media diplomacy to persuade public opinion to adopt new strategies; and establishing proper trade relations with different countries to avoid dependence on one country.
International Relations
Sajjad sadeghi
Abstract
The research on evolution and knowledge pathology of Iranian IR is theoretically impoverished. However, the reasons for the non-formation of Iranian theories will not be possible except through an autopsy and the discovery of weak points with a comparative view based on the question "why the American ...
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The research on evolution and knowledge pathology of Iranian IR is theoretically impoverished. However, the reasons for the non-formation of Iranian theories will not be possible except through an autopsy and the discovery of weak points with a comparative view based on the question "why the American and European IR academic community was able and we could not". The importance of this issue is to the extent that without understanding what challenges the weakness of acquired knowledge has created for the knowledge of IR, it is not possible to provide a solution to get out of the current situation. Based on this, the "acquired knowledge" of 375 IR students and graduates from 15 universities was first "conceptualized" using the method of "categorical content analysis" based on theoretical keywords, and then the results were tested with the "self-evaluation" approach and finally based on statistically comparing the results of both measurement styles with existing realities.The final results confirmed the theoretical weakness of acquired knowledge and proved the hypothesis of this research. The results of this research show that in the current situation, reforming the process of "acquired knowledge from education" should be the priority of Iran's IR academic community.
International Relations
Seyedeh Maryam Mousavi; Farhad Ghasemi
Abstract
The emergence of the new wars and the problem of controlling them, has recently become the main concern of the international actors. Yet, the existing literature in the International Relations hasn’t response to this problem properly. The main purpose of this article is to develop an appropriate ...
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The emergence of the new wars and the problem of controlling them, has recently become the main concern of the international actors. Yet, the existing literature in the International Relations hasn’t response to this problem properly. The main purpose of this article is to develop an appropriate deterrence model in order to control the networked wars, which have been classified as 4th generation of warfare in the chaotic-complex international system. To answer the question ‘How networked wars can be managed’, this article has introduced intensive networked deterrence as an answer. Using the abduction reasoning, this paper chose the best explanation of the behavior of the complex international system as the complex adaptive system in the age of chaos. Considering the transformation of international order to bifurcated order, intensive networked deterrence is an instrument applied by the owner of intensive power at the regional or international system to build the threat equation. Intensive networked deterrence, as an innovative sample of the sixth wave of deterrence theory, has been modeled, and its aspects on the current situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the regional network of West Asia have been investigated
International Relations
Seyed Hamzeh Safavi; Amirhossein Elhami; Ahmad Ramezani
Abstract
The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time ...
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The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time horizon is medium-term (10 years) and data collection is also mixed (documentary-field). First, by document study and interviews, 67 driving forces of China's strategic presence in 8 parameters of PESTEL+DS (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, defense and security) In addition to 7 global - regional trends were identified. Then, with questionnaire the effectiveness, importance and uncertainty of them was determined (according to the Lawshe coefficient, the validity of 55 driving forces - trends was confirmed and 19 driving forces - trends did not achieve the desired validity). in total, 22 driving forces - trends above the significance and uncertainty threshold values were selected. Then, with Friedman's test, 7 driving forces were selected, and their qualitative states were also extracted. Finally, 4 scenarios with zero inconsistency were drafted and edited with the questionnaire of cross influence matrix and scenario wizard software, and their effects on the national security of IRI were evaluated.
International Relations
Abdul Majid Seifi; hossein delavar
Abstract
As the United States expands its attention to the East in an effort to contain China,Beijing deepens its policy of diversifying its relations in order to reduce the negative effects of the United States'focus on East Asia.Part of this diversification has been leaning towards the strategy of occidentalism ...
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As the United States expands its attention to the East in an effort to contain China,Beijing deepens its policy of diversifying its relations in order to reduce the negative effects of the United States'focus on East Asia.Part of this diversification has been leaning towards the strategy of occidentalism or focusing on West Asia.Among the countries of West Asia,the expansion of China's relations with Saudi Arabia is a good example of China's occidentalism strategy due to its important role in the energy market and its influence on a wide range of Islamic and Arab states.In this regard, the main question of this research is what is the position of occidentalism in China's Strategic behavior?How is the position of Saudi Arabia defined in this occidentalism strategy?The findings of the research show that due The state of power distribution in the international system and the creation of new opportunities in the areas of need for energy resources,Countering the expansion of US influence, and initiatives such as the New Silk Road,the position of occidentalism in China's Strategic behavior has been strengthened and Saudi Arabia has a key position in this strategy.The article is done using historical research method with descriptive-analytical approach and explanatory method
International Relations
Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Abstract
During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two ...
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During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two countries. Two structural components in the foreign policy of the two countries have affected the dynamics of bilateral relations. First, the JCPOA, in which Russia played an important role. The second component was the Ukraine crisis in 2022, and Iran’s role has been noticed by analysts. The development model of Iran-Russia relations since 2015 is influenced by these two components. In this article, we seek to answer the main question and problem, which structural components have affected the development model of relations between Iran and Russia in this period? Our primary hypothesis to answer the main issue of the article is the JCPOA as a structural factor affecting Iran's foreign policy and the Ukraine war 2022 as a structural factor affecting Russia's foreign policy. The type of encounter of two countries with the structural factors affecting the other, has led to proliferation of these relations
International Relations
Gholam Reza Haddad
Abstract
IntroductionOver the span of four decades, the islamic republic of iran (iri) has consistently prioritized the confrontation with the united states as a fundamental axis and ultimate objective in its foreign policy. This stance has not only endured until now but has also shaped the boundaries of iran’s ...
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IntroductionOver the span of four decades, the islamic republic of iran (iri) has consistently prioritized the confrontation with the united states as a fundamental axis and ultimate objective in its foreign policy. This stance has not only endured until now but has also shaped the boundaries of iran’s maneuverability in other arenas. The present research aimed to address different aspects of iran–u.s. enmity by answering the following questions: how has confrontation with the u.s. become entrenched as the axis and ultimate objective in the foreign policy of the iri? and what are the prospects for potential shifts in this approach in the future?Literature ReviewIran–U.S. relations, along with the underlying causes of their mutually confrontational policy, has been the subject of numerous research studies. Some studies dealt with Iran–U.S. relations from a historical standpoint, aiming to explain the origins of mutual hostility through a chronological description of events in their relations. For instance, in the book titled US Foreign Policy and Iran: American–Iranian Relations Since the Islamic Revolution, Murray (2010) explored the history of Iran–US relations during the tenure of five presidents. She focused on the role of ideology, the dichotomy of democratization/stability or idealism/realism, informational and cognitive errors, the lack of mutual understanding rooted in language and image-making, the impact of events and their timing, the tools and levers of foreign policy, and the missed opportunities to restore relations. Rubin (1981), in an article titled “American Relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1979–1981,” focused on Iran–U.S. relations during the two years following the hostage crisis. For Rubin, the root of the mutual confrontation can be traced back to the perceptions of Revolution’s leaders of America’s role in supporting the Shah and attempting to thwart the success of the Revolution. In the article “US-Iran Relations: Issues, Challenges, and Prospects,” Hussain (2015) addressed the impediments to détente in the history of Iran–U.S. relations. Hussain emphasized various factors such as regional peace processes, terrorism, the nuclear issue, domestic policies in both countries, and America’s regional allies, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia. In Becoming Enemies: U.S.–Iran Relations and the Iran–Iraq War, 1979–1988, Blight et al. (2012) employed the methods of critical oral history, drawing on declassified documentation and interviews with key decision-makers in American foreign policy during the Iran–Iraq war. They argued that the roots of Iran–U.S. enmity would go back to the performance of American foreign policy during the war and its impact on the IRI’s foreign policy.Several studies tried to examine the role of other actors as mediating variables in Iran–U.S. relations. For instance, in the article Jafari-Movahhed (2022) argues that a major impediment to improving relations between Iran and the U.S. is intricately linked to the substantial and fundamental problems that the IRI has with Israel. According to Jafari-Movahhed, the identity ties between the U.S. and Israel, together with the influential role of the Zionist lobby in America, makes it almost impossible to normalize Iran–U.S. relations, at least in the short term. In the article entitled “The Role of Public Opinion Engineering in America on Iran–U.S. Relations,” Pourkhosh-Saadat (2015) attributed the origins of animosity between the two countries to the psychological operations orchestrated by adversaries of the Islamic Revolution. Specifically, Pourkhosh-Saadat points to the influence of the Israel lobby in the U.S, contending that any shift in Iran–U.S. relations would depend on the opinion and decision of the AIPAC lobby and Israel-affiliated media. He argues that AIPAC is actively engineering Iran–U.S. relations through its media. In “Great Power Rivalries and the Persistence of Iran–U.S. Adversarial Relations,” Lotfian and Faghih (2021) posit that as economic pressures on Iran increase due to the delayed lifting of sanctions by both Europe and America, Iran will increasingly turn to alternative allies. They argue that heightened antagonism from the U.S. will push Iran towards closer ties with China and Russia. In response, American policymakers are likely to become more determined to strengthen relationships with regional allies and partners. While the authors do not directly address the underlying causes of Iran–U.S. enmity, they contend that escalating tensions among the U.S., China, and Russia may contribute to the intensification of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. (Lotfian & Faghih, 2021).The literature has also focused on the process of Othering and the construction of Self/Other in Iran–U.S. relations. For example, Duncombe (2016), in the article titled “Representation, Recognition, and Foreign Policy in the Iran–US Relationship,” offered an understanding of Iran–U.S. enmity by focusing on the construction of states’ identity through representation of Self and Other. According to Duncombe, representation and misrecognition contribute to a mutual feeling of disrespect, thus exacerbating the tensions between the two countries.The novelty of the present research lies in its unique interpretation of the process of Othering, in which three types of Others are recognized: the historical Other, the domestic Other, and the foreign Other. The study tried to answer the research questions by examining how the interaction between the three Others has constructed the identity of the IRI. Materials and MethodsThe present study adopted a constructivist approach with a focus on identity, and used it in combination with the typology of states in political economy, incorporating both sub-national and transnational levels of analysis. The aim was to examine the formation and consolidation of the iri’s foreign policy with an eye to the process of othering the u.s. The analysis intended to offer insights that can explain the most endurable axis of the iri’s foreign policy, namely anti-arrogance within the culture of confrontation and conflict, and shed light on its inevitability as well as its structural consequences on domestic policy.ConclusionThe research findings were grounded in the conceptual constructs such as Othering identification, triple Others, projective identification, constitutive and regulative rules, and allocative and authoritative resources. Additionally, the analysis relied on the dichotomy of organic/instrumental state, highlighting structural sclerosis that challenges fundamental transformations. The study finally addressed the feasibility and evaluation of the capacities and requirements for change in the core axes and ultimate objectives of the IRI’s foreign policy.
International Relations
Fariborz Arghavani Pirsalami; Ali Dehghan
Abstract
Introduction Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the ...
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Introduction Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—both before and after gaining independence in the 1970s—have predominantly adhered to Western approaches and attitudes. Notably, there has been a significant shift in the foreign policy and economic perspectives of the member states. This shift is characterized by an increased focus on fostering economic–political interactions with the Asian super-region, particularly the East Asian subregion (e.g., Japan and China). This shift is evident in collaborative mega-projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s Arab Policy Paper, and increasing relations in different fields. The new policy reflects a discernible shift in discourse and a departure from purely Western perspectives, heralding a transition to emerging economic and political views within the Asian super-region, while maintaining relations with Western powers, such as the United States. The present study aimed to examine the political–economic factors accelerating the Asianization of the GCC members and steering them towards new Asian partners. The central question is: What political–economic factors have contributed to the Asianization of the Persian Gulf and the shift of focus of GCC members towards Asian partners? The article posits that the shift in the foreign policy of GCC members can be attributed to the influence of various factors associated with individual, societal, and governmental levels, as well as the factors relating to roles and the structure of the international system.Theoretical FrameworkIt seems that a multi-causal explanation of how the GCC countries engage with emerging Asian powers, as well as their gradual foreign policy shift from the Western block towards Eastern powers, necessitates an approach that takes into account both macro and micro perspectives. To conduct a multi-causal explanation of Asianism in foreign policy actions and behaviors of GCC states, the present research integrated macro-level analytical components, such as the influence of the international structure, and the micro-level factors such as the roles played by leaders, governments, and society. Given its inclusivity and theoretical breadth, the theoretical framework could offer more analytical possibilities to address almost every component and factor involved in Asianization of the Persian Gulf.Materials and MethodsTo address the research question and test the hypothesis, the study relied on the descriptive–analytical method and causal inference, adopting a multi-causal approach at both micro and macro levels. Results and DiscussionThe Asianization of the Persian Gulf region, influenced by various political–economic requisites, stands out as the most pivotal political and diplomatic shift experienced by the Arab countries in the region. The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked a transition from a bipolar to a multipolar international system. Amid the struggle of the Western bloc for supremacy during the Cold War, Asia embarked on a decisive path of growth and prominence in the 1960s and 1970s, diverging from the prevailing Western current. As an ancillary consequence in the international scene, regionalism has emerged in Asia, with a focus on East Asian actors. With the rise of the emerging pole of power in East Asia over recent decades, the Asian super-region is actively working to shape the new international order and extra-regional agendas, leveraging increased economic power and the ability to shape the discourse at the international level. The economic rise of China, alongside Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, which accounted for a third of the world’s gross domestic product in 2000, heralded the participation of the Asian super-region in the international order. These developments gave rise to Asianism as an alternative to the Western framework as well as a successful model of economic development at both regional and extra-regional levels—which could expand the influence and reach of Asian countries in shaping political agendas and the then new international order. Therefore, Asianization can be viewed as a transitional process that includes the divergence of governments at regional and international levels from the dominant Western current in political, economic, cultural, and military arenas, leading to the increased role and dominance of Asian alternatives over recent decades.The research findings highlight that beyond historical interactions in cultural, energy, commercial, and military areas, several factors have contributed to the Asianization of the GCC members. The factors include a generational shift among the GCC leaders, the necessity of fostering a productive economy to ensure the survival and legitimacy of the Persian Gulf states, and global developments in the international structure such as the acceleration of power shift from the West to the East, the remarkable rise of China, and the need for regional balance. In recent years, these factors have resulted in the stabilization and acceleration of the Asianization among the GCC member states. Notably, the contribution of the international structure is significantly more influential than other variables. The ongoing transition and structural changes within the international system have not only shaped the evolving attitudes of new GCC leaders towards economic functionalism and international cooperation but also imposed certain requirements at the reginal and international levels that could further propel the Asianization process. The latter include alliances and coalitions with Eastern powers while balancing against Iran. The variable of structural changes even becomes more significant when considering its constitutive role in shaping the future of Gulf–Asian relations.ConclusionCurrently, the process of Asianization in the Persian Gulf is intertwined with the broader global trend of Asianization. Nevertheless, it appears that the GCC countries will continue to consider their relationships with the US and the West as crucial, particularly in military-cum-security domains where they largely rely on the US and Western partners. However, the increasing economic and political dependence on the East is influenced by evolving requirements, suggesting that international–regional connections will ultimately lay the foundation for the all-round dominance of Eastern powers, such as China, over the Western and security configuration of the Persian Gulf.
International Relations
Alireza Samiee Esfahani; Ehsan Jafarifar
Abstract
IntroductionThe rise of the populist radical-right parties (PRRP) stands out as one of the most significant developments in Western democracies over the past two decades. This trend, seen as a challenging sign within democracy but against liberal democracy, highlights the mounting pressure faced by Western ...
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IntroductionThe rise of the populist radical-right parties (PRRP) stands out as one of the most significant developments in Western democracies over the past two decades. This trend, seen as a challenging sign within democracy but against liberal democracy, highlights the mounting pressure faced by Western political regimes from forces and groups that diverge from the dominant political currents of the last two decades. More specifically, one of the trends in various regions of the EU is the fact that voters, disillusioned by traditional (EU) politics, are turning towards populist and extreme parties both on the left and the right. In this respect, the current research aims to address the question: What were the causes and underlying factors contributing to the rise of radical right parties to power in Europe over the last two decades?Literature ReviewIn Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe, Cas Mudde (2007) delved into the ideology of PRRPs. He identifies three core tenets, namely nationalism, authoritarianism, and populism, contending that PRRPs are not passive entities; rather, they are engaged in actively shaping their destiny within contemporary Western societies. In the article “Economic Insecurity and Demand of Populism in Europe,” Guiso et al. (2022) relied on the approach based on demand of populism to argue that market as well as government inefficiencies in providing security have eroded citizen trust in traditional political parties and institutions. The escalating threats of immigration and globalization have further heightened desperation and fear, contributing to the intensified demand for populist policies. Guiso et al. (2022) explain how this dual crisis, reflected in economic insecurity, systematically influences the demand for populism. In “Conditions Favouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe,” Jackman and Volpert (2017) conducted a comprehensive examination of systemic conditions influencing the electoral success of extreme right-wing parties in 16 Western European countries between 1970 and 1990. They concluded that factors such as the electoral system, party structure, and higher unemployment rates created a conducive environment for the emergence of such political movements. In addition, Dehshiri and Ghasemi (2015), in their article titled “Fourfold Crises and the Rise of the Radical Right in Europe,” posit that the four crises (i.e., resource distribution, representation, identity, and immigration) played an undeniable role in shaping the radical right movement in Europe.The review of the literature shows different vantage points used to examine the causes, contexts, and consequences of the rise of radical right parties to power. There is a focus on particular aspects such as the electoral system, party structure, identity, and immigration. The novelty of the present research lies in its comprehensive approach based on supply and demand of populism, which explores a combination of socio-economic and political motivations and variables that impact the rise of radical right parties in European countries.Materials and MethodsThe present research used the supply and demand of populism as the framework to conduct a bottom-up and top-down analysis of the rise of radical right parties in Europe during 2008–2018.Results and DiscussionUsing the supply and demand of populism, the research can shed light on different dimensions of the rise of PRRPs in Europe during 2008–2018. On the demand side of populism, the ineffectiveness of governments in managing the financial crisis—often marked by cost reduction, tax increases, and rising unemployment—created the fertile ground for populist tendencies, including anti-immigrant sentiment, xenophobia, Euroscepticism, and nationalism. Meanwhile, the influx of immigrants into Europe, coupled with the adoption of multiculturalism in sociocultural spheres and globalization in the economic realm, could have contributed to the emergence and resurgence of radical right parties. On the supply side of populism, institutional mechanisms and political strategies (e.g., the nature of the electoral system, party ideologies, organizational structures of parties, and party leadership), alongside the influence of messages, rhetoric, and media propaganda, further laid the ground for the rise of radical right parties to power.ConclusionRelying on the supply and demand of populism as the framework, the present research demonstrated that economic and sociocultural demands and dissatisfactions on the demand side (bottom-up approach), coupled with the political and institutional strategies and mechanisms employed by populist statesmen and parties on the supply side of populism (top-down approach), prompted European voters to turn towards radical right leaders and parties. These conditions could foster the political mobilization of citizens by these parties, ultimately resulting in their rise to power, particularly between 2008 and 2018. Following the disorders such as the 2008 economic crisis, the 2014 terrorist crisis, the immigration crisis after 2015, and the ensuing sociocultural dissatisfaction, populist parties and leaders capitalized on the political opportunities available in the populism market, emerging as key players in the political arena. Concerning the supply of populism, radical right parties successfully provided the narratives necessary for political mobilization around shared concerns. They attracted the majority of votes by leveraging legal and institutional mechanisms (such as elections, media, and the unique leadership capabilities), ultimately securing political power.
International Relations
Mahin Nazari; Shafiee Shafiee; Nafiseh Vaez
Abstract
Introduction In the post-Cold War era, the international system continues to undergo a state of transition. In the emerging geopolitical landscape, the West Asia, and specifically the Persian Gulf region, occupies a unique role in the policy of major powers (e.g., the USA and China), thanks to its special ...
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Introduction In the post-Cold War era, the international system continues to undergo a state of transition. In the emerging geopolitical landscape, the West Asia, and specifically the Persian Gulf region, occupies a unique role in the policy of major powers (e.g., the USA and China), thanks to its special geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic significance, alongside its stable oil and gas reserves. China, as a growing East Asian country, has increasingly directed its focus towards strategic regions, such as the Persian Gulf, in recent decades. This shift is driven by China’s growing need to maximize its increasing power. China’s critical need for fossil resources has been a primary driver compelling the Chinese political elite to consider the Persian Gulf as a pivotal region in their foreign policy. To be more specific, since the late 1980s, China has been reliant on oil imports to sustain its economic growth and move up the global power hierarchy. This fundamental issue has, in turn, prompted Beijing to adopt a pragmatic and non-ideological perspective to consider closer collaboration with major energy actors such as the Islamic Republic of Iran (in opposition to Washington) and Saudi Arabia (in alignment with Washington). Relying on a descriptive–analytical approach, the present study endeavored to address the questions of what role China assumes in the economic and political future of the Persian Gulf region, and how it can impact Iran’s national interests.Literature Review In “China–Iran Relations Through the Prism of Sanctions,” Scita (2022) explains how China has dealt with the sanctions imposed on Iran. Scita not only delves into Beijing’s response and approach to the imposed sanctions, but also assesses the extent to which China complies with the these sanctions. The author notably argues that China–Iran relations are influenced by their relations with the US as well as their status in the international arena. In their article titled “Iran, China and the Persian Gulf: An Unfolding Engagement,” Shariatinia and Kermani (2022) address the question of how Iran views China’s growing involvement in the Persian Gulf region, particularly in light of China’s strong ties with Iran’s primary regional competitors.Materials and MethodsNeoclassical realists posit that a country’s ambitions are primarily shaped by the capabilities of its government in the realm of foreign policy, as well as by its position in the international system. They contend that a government’s relative capability in mobilizing domestic resources forms the basis for formulating a balanced strategy in the international scene. In this light, it can be observed that conditions are indeed conducive to China’s economic growth and realization of its potential, owing to the recent significant changes in China’s foreign and domestic policies and the ensuing normalization of relations between this growing Asian country and the capitalist West. China’s vast geographic expanse, a population numbering in billions, the young and large workforce, and efficient management, have enabled China to achieve rapid and substantial economic growth. For over four decades, China has consistently maintained remarkable economic growth, averaging around 8%. However, to sustain the economic growth, China needs access to foreign markets, cheap and abundant raw materials, and notably, energy resources. Focusing on a country’s domestic capacitates and the structure of the international system (i.e., possibilities and limitations), the theory of neoclassical realism can explain the overt and covert competition between Washington and Beijing in the Persian Gulf.Results and Discussion The analysis revealed two scenarios about China’s presence in the Persian Gulf and its impact on Iran. The first scenario pertains to the maintenance of the status quo. In this case, the USA would continue its presence in the Persian Gulf region. If the Arab nations in the Persian Gulf trust the American presence and the alliance commitments, and the US exerts more pressure on its regional partners, it is conceivable that strategic industrial cooperation with China may be halted somehow without further progress. The second scenario revolves around the decline of the US presence in West Asia, including the Persian Gulf region. This essentially signifies the dominance of the Great Power Competition doctrine and the strategic prioritization of the Indo–Pacific region, specifically China, in American foreign policy.ConclusionWhat is particularly noteworthy here is the fact that the nature of the strategic relations between China and the countries in the Persian Gulf has not only placed the US in a strategic quandary in the region but has also significantly influenced Tehran–Beijing relations. Not solely relying on Iran to achieve all its regional objectives, China has tried to diversify and deepen its relations with the Arab countries in the region in order to diversify its energy supply sources. However, this approach does not imply ignoring Iran. China, given its strategic stance, has consistently aimed to maintain the most positive relations possible with Tehran, albeit at a more limited level. The findings point to the conclusion that China’s approach to the Persian Gulf region should not be viewed solely in terms of the energy economy and cooperation in the energy sector. It is also essential to analyze its implications within the context of regional security and solidarity. In fact, the Persian Gulf is recognized both as a focal point for global energy production and distribution, and one of the most unstable parts of the world.
International Relations
Arslan Ghorbani; Hadi Torki; Saeed Mirtorabi; Gholamreza Karimi
Abstract
Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound ...
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Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound understanding of the actions and reactions of countries’ foreign policies in the international system. In this line, the present study aimed to develop a model to gain a better understanding of Iran–China relations. The research sought a clearer insight into Iran–China comprehensive strategic partnership by employing a set of theories at the levels of international system, foreign policy, and domestic scene of policy formulation and decision-making. At the level of international system, it is necessary to consider the convergence between Iran and China in the context of US-led Western hegemony and counter-hegemony. At the level of foreign policy, it is crucial to consider cognitive approaches in foreign policy analysis. At the domestic level, one must take into account Iran’s prevailing economic circumstances and its challenges stemming from the US- imposed sanctions, which have prompted the Look to the East policy. China also seeks to export the surplus of its production and advance the Chinese model through partnerships. Delving into these issues, the present article investigated both theoretical considerations as well as various dimensions of Iran–China relations in practice.Literature ReviewRekabian et al. (2021) assert that Iran and China have actively pursued closer cooperation in regional and international organizations as a countermeasure against Western interventions. Shafiei (2022) posits that China’s comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran is primarily motivated by its own strategic objectives, while Iran engages extensively with China out of its specific needs and requirements. Corneliussen (2020) suggests that the Iran–China agreement has the potential to reshape the strategic and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Figueroa (2022) highlights that Western sanctions stand as the primary hurdle to the realization of the 25-Year Iran–China Agreement and the enhancement of economic ties between the two countries. Scita (2022) argues that Washington is actively attempting to manage the contradictions arising from these roles through continuous mediation efforts. According to Loft et al. (2022), China is actively pursuing control over critical technological and industrial sectors, essential infrastructure, strategic resources, and supply chains.Materials and Methods The present study used a descriptive method to offer an analysis of Iran–China partnership.Results and Discussion The approach taken by Iran and China in establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership can be seen as a form of convergence between the two countries. China, in particular, seeks to advance its own strategic goals through these partnerships. It is also important to recognize that there are shared identity constructs between Iran and China, which can be characterized as the power of ideas evolving within the realist framework in the international system. In addition, this partnership has emerged from a nuanced understanding and recognition of the geopolitical landscape, especially within the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is pursuing its first significant international partnership and agreement in the last century. Beyond addressing domestic needs and fulfilling economic, political, and military requirements, the Iran–China agreement is rooted in a strategic grasp of counter-hegemony as a pivotal factor in forging such agreements.ConclusionTo gain a deeper insight into the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, it is essential to explore various aspects and variables, ranging from domestic factors to the perceptions of their leaders, decision-makers, and policymakers, and to the dynamics of the international system. Comprehending and recognizing the positions held by the leaders of both nations within the international arena can facilitate the identification of national interests, commonalities, differences, and potential conflicts. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China requires an analysis of both domestic and foreign factors and variables. This approach offers valuable insights into the rationale and strategies that underlie the Iran-China partnership. The partnership is shaped not only by domestic and international circumstances but also by the perceptions of decision-makers and authorities in each country. Moreover, the resistance to a third party, such as the US, can exert a significant influence. All of these factors lead to a realist perspective in the international arena, which can contribute to more informed and effective decision-making processes for both countries involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership.
International Relations
Sajjad sadeghi
Abstract
Introduction Analyzing international relations (IR) theories reveals that non-Western theories are ...
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Introduction Analyzing international relations (IR) theories reveals that non-Western theories are yet to fully materialize. Some scholars argue that a significant impediment to the recognition of non-Western IR theories is the pervasive influence of the US in the field of IR. They point to the extensive body of IR articles, books, and theories generated by American academic institutions and scholarly communities as a compelling base for their claim. Despite its European origins, the field of IR is argued to have matured and thrived in the US, hence an American social science. In this respect, researchers worldwide have embarked on various studies to assess the impact of American IR on the development of IR science and theory. Some IR scholars posit that the US hegemony following World War II has further entrenched the profound influence of American IR within the scholarly domain of IR. They argue that the US foreign policy in the bipolar world order, due to the US extensive involvement in pivotal international events, has become an inseparable aspect of IR studies. The crux of the argument lies in the fact that IR researchers select their objects of analysis by considering international events and influential factors. In this context, the US has played a central role in virtually all significant international events for approximately a century. Consequently, IR researchers tend to examine international events in line with the influential role of US foreign policy as a crucial variable.Literature ReviewAssessing the approach of IR scholarship is a conventional method to understand the intra-disciplinary and extra-disciplinary factors shaping the discipline of IR. Concerning the explanations provided for the limited success of non-mainstream theorizing, scholars have consistently underscored the influence of US political domination on IR literature and theorization, leading to an academic hegemony characterized by the center–periphery dynamic. In light of these considerations, the extent of American influence on shaping academic scholarship in a given country is a recognized object of analysis, which can shed light on the status of IR discipline in the local and national contexts. Regrettably, the topic has not been examined in the Iranian scientific literature, except the author’s individual research titled “Research Approaches of Iranian International Relations Articles: A Review of Scientific Research Articles Published in 2021." The findings of this research helped discern the strong influence of US foreign policy on Iranian IR scholarship, notably in the selection of research topics and the research process.Materials and MethodsThe current research employed a random selection process and a specific software to choose 500 Persian articles from Iranian journals in the field of IR and political science, spanning from March 2019 to March 2022. The primary focus was to analyze the journal articles with regard to their being influenced by US foreign policy. Grounded theory was used as the research method, yet it is important to note that the aim was not to formulate a specific theory but to test the claim and present a confirmed proposition in light of the research findings. Actually, this method was used to gather information and align it with existing propositions and claims. The reliability of this research was ensured thanks to the systematic inductive process, which allows for an unbiased examination of the research proposition.Results and DiscussionThe findings revealed that Iranian IR researchers predominantly adhere to the framework of mainstream IR theories and exhibit limited inclination towards critical theories or globalized international relations theories. Notably, for every three Iranian articles on IR, one article was found to be focused on US foreign policy as a significant variable. There was the initially speculation that the substantial volume of articles on US foreign policy were attributed to the longstanding tense relations Iran and America over the past four decades. However, upon closer examination, it became apparent that only a limited number of these articles were directly related to Iran-US relations, and most of them were predominantly centered around Iran’s nuclear issue. A significant number of the journal articles had delved into US foreign policy in various world regions. For instance, for Iranian scholars of IR, US foreign policy is an important independent variable in the analysis of topics related to Iraq, ISIS, Afghanistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. An evaluative analysis revealed that Iranian IR researchers tend to hold a pessimistic outlook on the performance of American foreign policy, which is closely aligned with the official foreign policy stance of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The prevailing opinion among Iranian IR scholars is that the active presence of America in international events is not motivated by humanitarian objectives. They contend that US decisions such as the military occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, the military presence in the Persian Gulf, or the provision of American aid to Israel are devoid of genuine humanitarian goals. Instead, they view American intervention as a source of instability in the international order and a disruptive factor of global peace. The pessimistic perspectives put forth by the majority of Iranian IR researchers echoes what is often termed as Kissinger Syndrome.ConclusionThe analysis of 500 articles led to several noteworthy conclusions. First, Iranian IR scholars tend to follow the mainstream IR theorizing, demonstrating a distinct separation from critical schools of thought. Second, Iranian IR does not seek to localize IR ideas or enrich its perspectives in line with global IR. Third, Iranian scholarship is critical of the US international role and perceives it as a disruptive factor of regional and global stability and peace, despite the US declared humanitarian foreign policy. Fourth, Iranian IR research focuses on US foreign policy as an independent variable, which can be attributed to America’s extensive involvement in regional and global crises. Finally, while Iranian IR scholarship dedicates itself to issues of significant relevance to the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it often overlooks the performance and impact of Iran’s foreign policy in these areas. Instead, it approaches the relevant issues from the perspective of other variables.
International Relations
Marjan Badiee Azandahi; Farzin Zandi; Kyomars Yazdanpanah
Abstract
Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. ...
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Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. Scholars in this field believe that countries such as Russia, China, and Iran have successfully employed tools and tactics within this concept, enabling them to pursue their security and political interests without triggering major power sensitivities. In this regard, the escalating intensification of geopolitical rivalries in Southwestern Asia, especially between Iran and regional and extra-regional countries, has become a significant challenge when it comes to ensuring security in this area. Adopting the security-for-all-or-no-one approach, Iran aims to establish superiority in its geopolitical rivalry with the United States, the most prominent external actor in this field. Since 2003 and the aftermath of the Iraq war, Iran has introduced a novel strategy in its geopolitical approach. In this respect, the present study aimed to elaborate on the concept of gray zone and highlight its key components as influential variables in Iran’s geopolitical strategy. Materials and MethodsAs an applied study, the present research employed a comparative descriptive–analytical approach. The data collection method involved a combination of library research and computer-assisted techniques.Results and DiscussionAs containment measures against Iran intensify due to the US unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), there have been increasing efforts to neutralize Iran’s strategies and weaken its regional activities, particularly in the realm of geopolitics of resistance. These developments pose a potential threat to Iran’s national security. It is thus necessary to identify and examine the components of Iran’s geopolitical strategy while considering alternative interpretations. Iran’s geopolitical expansion in the region have prompted the West and its allies to impede Iran’s geopolitical influence by scrutinizing its geopolitical territorialization approach marked by the formation and organization of as well as support for proxy forces, manifested in shaping the political dynamics of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and even in direct confrontations with the West on the Syrian battlefield. In this context, leveraging its historical, geographical, and cultural unity, Iran has successfully mobilized communities throughout Southwest Asia by relying on small non-state groups, and emphasizing commonalities while overlooking divergences. This mobilization effort is gradually expanding its reach from the southern Arabian Peninsula to the shores of the Mediterranean.By examining the interpretations of gray zone and geopolitics of resistance as two key strategies, this research aimed to address the question of how Iran seeks to achieve its desired security and implement its geopolitical strategy in Southwest Asia. The term axis of resistance refers to geographical regions that pursue both ideological and geopolitical objectives. On the other hand, gray zone is not necessarily a geographical representation of a strategy, but rather a number of tactics that employ specific tools to advance geopolitical interests in strategically significant geographical areas.The findings of this study reveal that Iran’s geopolitical rivalry in Southwest Asia, particularly with the United States, has led Iran to develop a distinct geopolitical strategy known as axis of resistance, or according to American scholarship, gray zone. In this strategy, Iran aims to achieve its security objectives by focusing on five key areas (i.e., military, political, economic, informational–narrative, and cultural or religious) and relying on cooperation and support of non-state armed groups in specific countries in the region. In this way, Iran has successfully achieved its objectives by establishing geopolitical corridors and attaining the desired geographical integration in Southwest Asia. This has enabled Iran to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea and establish proximity to Israel. However, unless subnational and national requirements are seriously taken into account, the mentioned security achievements will prove ineffective and temporary. In other words, despite Iran’s expansion of geopolitical territorialization, the erosion of internal capabilities, particularly in the political sphere, coupled with the disruption of Iran’s economic lifelines, will gradually lead to increased challenges in sustaining support for its geopolitical arms.ConclusionWhen examining the objectives, methods, and tools employed by the United States to counter Iran’s gray zone geopolitical strategy, it becomes evident that the US, rather than solely relying on its own capabilities and geopolitical confrontation, has prioritized targeting Iran’s vulnerable points. While countering Iran’s gray zone strategy, the United States has adopted a hybrid approach that encompasses all four primary domains: political, economic, military, and informational. However, America has specifically recognized the political and economic domains as the Achilles heel of Iran’s security, and by extension, of the gray zone strategy. At the same time, the United States is diligently uncovering Iran’s vulnerabilities by restructuring its decision-making processes within the government and military, as well as streamlining bureaucracy to facilitate prompt responsive measures in the gray zone. Through exerting influence and applying pressure on Iran in the aforementioned domains, the United States aims to achieve a goal that surpasses mere neutralization of the gray zone strategy, that is, undermining Iran’s national and territorial security. As a result, America has successfully identified Iran’s vulnerabilities in key military, political, economic, and informational domains. It has thus devised and carried out tactics appropriate for each domain, both within the framework of the US gray zone strategy and through conventional means.
International Relations
Seyed jalal Dehghani Firozabadi; Saeed Chehrazad
Abstract
IntroductionSome governments and organizations are preparing to exploit artificial intelligence (AI) in order to destabilize the world and benefit from numerous cyber-attacks. The rapid advancement of AI enables cybercriminals to amplify their destructive impact worldwide, as AI has the potential to ...
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IntroductionSome governments and organizations are preparing to exploit artificial intelligence (AI) in order to destabilize the world and benefit from numerous cyber-attacks. The rapid advancement of AI enables cybercriminals to amplify their destructive impact worldwide, as AI has the potential to reshape and disrupt global conditions in the coming years. The primary objective of this research was to establish a comprehensive framework for critically evaluating the role of AI in facilitating unethical practices within the realm of security, both in theory and in practice. To lay the groundwork for the practical implementation of national security measures based on grounded theory requires adopting a problem-oriented perspective on terrorism, warfare, and conflict. A strategic instance of this approach is the concept of algorithmic national security which has the potential for creating and developing a new security order. This article aimed to contribute to the existing body of scientific literature, as there is currently a dearth of research in this field, thereby paving the way for future investigations. The primary objective of this research was to establish a comprehensive framework for critically evaluating the role of AI in facilitating unethical practices within the realm of security, both in theory and in practice. The present research aimed to develop a comprehensive framework for the critical evaluation of the role of AI in the unethical utilization of its functions in security matters, both in theory and in practice. In this line, the main question is: How can national security topics be problematized in light of AI hegemony and within the framework of terrorism, war, conflict, and defense?Materials and MethodsAdopting a descriptive–analytical approach, the present research relied on library research and documentary method to collect the data from various printed and electronic sources, including websites and magazines. Note-taking was used as a tool in data collection stage. In this study, AI and national security were considered as the independent and dependent variables, respectively.Results and DiscussionThe debate surrounding the use of AI and its autonomy on future battlefields has predominantly centered on the ethical implications of granting complete authority to independent and autonomous weapons, often referred to as killer robots, capable of making life or death decisions. Is it truly feasible for these systems to operate without any human intervention, or does their deployment potentially violate the principles of warfare and international humanitarian laws? Avoiding such a predicament necessitates that those involved in warfare differentiate between combatants and civilians on the battlefield, prioritizing the preservation of civilian lives and minimizing harm to them to the greatest extent possible.Proponents of this emerging technology argue that machines will eventually possess enough intelligence to distinguish themselves from humans. Conversely, opponents maintain that machines will never possess the capability to make such a fundamental distinction. They argue that machines lack the capacity to make split-second decisions in the heat of war or exhibit timely empathy. In response to these concerns, several human rights and humanitarian organizations have launched the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, aiming to establish an international ban on the development and deployment of fully automated and autonomous weapon systems. In the meantime, a highly contentious debate is unfolding within the military sphere regarding the use of AI in the command and control systems governing how senior officers convey essential orders to their subordinate soldiers. Throughout history, generals and admirals have consistently sought to enhance the reliability of command and control systems to ensure the fullest realization of their strategic objectives.Nowadays, these systems are heavily relied upon to ensure the security of radio and satellite communication systems that connect headquarters to the front lines. However, strategists are concerned that in a future hyper-warfare environment, these systems could be vulnerable to disruptions caused by jamming, which would make the speed of military operations exceed commanders’ limited ability to receive battlefield reports, process data, and issue timely orders. It is important to go beyond these concerns and consider the practical definition of the uncertain fog of war, which is further complicated by the multiplication effect of AI and the potential for failure. Many military officers see a solution to this dilemma in relinquishing the control of machines to these systems. As stated in a report by the Congressional Research Service, AI algorithms can offer more reliable tools for real-time analysis of the battlefield and enable faster decision-making, thus being able to stay updated.ConclusionWe are currently witnessing a turning point in technology. The pace of advancements in AI is surpassing even the expert predictions. These breakthroughs offer significant advantages to humanity, enabling AI systems to tackle complex issues in medicine, the environment, and other fields. However, along with progress, there are also accompanying risks. The implications of AI for national security are becoming increasingly profound with each passing year. In this article, the aim was to assess the extent of these consequences in the years ahead. The findings indicate that AI is likely to highlight several, if not all, of the most challenging aspects of transformative military technologies. It thus becomes increasingly crucial to address its implications in examining how policymakers in the realm of national security respond to this technology.Unfortunately, AI carries the potential for risks comparable to those posed by previous technologies, and in some cases, its impact could be even more devastating, owing to the rapid pace of technological advancement and the intricate relationship between government and industry in the present era. While we appreciate the increasing number of high-quality AI reports published in recent years, we acknowledge that a certain degree of conservatism has somewhat impeded comprehensive analysis. In this article, the objective was to provide an honest description of the AI revolution as truly revolutionary rather than merely different. To address this challenge effectively, governments must approach the issue with ambition, emphasizing both research and development while considering its ramifications.The advancement of AI technology in the military, information technology, cybersecurity, and economic sectors over the next decade will lead to profound transformations worldwide. These changes are occurring at a faster pace than anticipated, and undoubtedly, they will present their own set of challenges, with implications extending to various aspects, including national security. AI introduces a level of complexity in the interactions between states, industries, and individuals, necessitating the deployment of skilled experts to respond quickly and effectively to the evolving landscape shaped by this phenomenon.
International Relations
Mokhtar Ghasemi; Seied Saeed Mirtorabi Hoseini; Mohammad Vali Modarres; Farideh Mohammad Alipour
Abstract
IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, ...
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IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, the two countries established the highest level of bilateral ties by signing 34 investment agreements valued at around 30 billion dollars, spanning various sectors such as clean energy, hydrogen production, solar energy, information technology, transportation, medical and housing industries, and building materials factories. Furthermore, China’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased from 5 million and 66 thousand barrels per day in 2011 to 10 million and 852 thousand barrels per day in 2020. The figure remained above 10 million barrels during 2022, despite the challenges posed by the COVID–19 pandemic and unfavorable economic conditions. This trend Indicates growing relations between China and Saudi Arabia.China and Saudi Arabia have exchanged a large share of capital in the energy sector. The Saudi active presence in the Chinese oil market has positioned it as China’s largest trade partner in the West Asia and African region. The bilateral investment volume between the two countries stands at approximately 73 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia’s extensive investments aimed at controlling China’s oil import network, refineries, and petrochemical industry, along with its involvement in the plan to double China’s strategic oil reserve, underscore the importance of maintaining China’s energy market for Saudi Arabia. Consequently, given China’s status as the largest energy consumer and Saudi Arabia’s position as the largest oil exporter, both countries possess the requisite capacity to foster cooperation in this field.In addition, Vision 2030 and the One Belt One Road Initiative are strategic factors facilitating the expansion of China–Saudi Arabia relations. In this regard, the two countries have signed comprehensive strategic cooperation agreements, leading to the establishment of the High-Level Joint Committee. During the committee’s second meeting in Riyadh in August 2017, contracts valued at 70 billion dollars were signed. Moreover, an important milestone was reached by signing a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the establishment of a joint investment fund worth 20 billion dollars. Furthermore, Industrial Development Fund, China’s Silk Road Fund, and Everbright Bank were established. These agreements, memoranda, and funds intend to expedite the development of China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Although China is trying to maximize its energy security by distributing its oil imports among different countries (e.g., the US), Saudi Arabia’s consistent share of approximately 20% in recent years remains of utmost significance.Literature ReviewSeveral studies have examined the topics of US energy policy and the development of China–Saudi Arabia relations. However, few works have linked these two phenomena in an analytical manner. The novelty of this article lies in its attempt to bridge this gap and provide an analysis by exploring the interplay between these two issues.Materials and MethodsThis research adopted a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data. Documents and library resources were used to collect the data. Relying on an examination of research, analytical and statistical texts, the study focused on indexing and defining variables and their influential factors in a bid to conduct an analytical and inferential exploration to elucidate the trends and interrelationships between the independent and dependent variables.ConclusionThe US–Saudi oil relations have witnessed unparalleled growth and encompassed various economic, political, and security sectors in recent decades. Furthermore, to ensure its own growth and development, it is imperative for China to maintain stability and security in the energy sector. This objective can be achieved through effective management of competition and, in certain instances, cooperation with the United States. The ongoing trend of expanding relations between China and Saudi Arabia in the energy sector is unprecedented, solidifying China’s position as a significant competitor to the United States. The growing China–Saudi Arabia relations are driven by the mutual needs in the energy sector and strategic development plans. Yet the present research aimed to analyze China–Saudi Arabia relations with an eye to the US energy policy, relying a neo-mercantilist approach. Consequently, the primary question addressed in this article is: how has the US energy policy during 2011–2022 influenced the dynamics of China–Saudi Arabia relationship. The study was based on the hypothesis that the US energy policy during 2011–2022, characterized by increased oil and shale gas production and a reinforced neo-mercantilist approach in the energy sector, played a crucial role in fostering closer ties between China and Saudi Arabia, primarily in the oil sector, and supported their efforts to broaden mutual cooperation across other fields. The hypothesis was tested through empirical and explanatory methods. The research findings suggest that China–Saudi Arabia cooperation is expected to expand further in the future, while taking into account the sensitivities associated with these relations from the perspective of the United States.
International Relations
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Saeed Shokoohi
Abstract
Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more ...
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Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more important, than the events themselves. Regardless of the actual situation and reality, decision-makers act based on their perception of what is happening. This underscores the crucial role that cognitive and mental factors play in shaping the behavior of actors. When analyzing international political issues, it is necessary to distinguish between the operational milieu and psychological milieu. This is especially important when major or acute issues of the international system are at play, and emotions, nationalism, or ideology come into play. Currently, during Joe Biden’s presidency, the relationship between China and the US is experiencing one of its worst periods, and rhetorical tensions between the two countries have escalated. In this context, the possibility of non-emotional dialogues and understanding significantly has decreased. Instead, both sides are arranging their policies and reactions based on their perceptions of each other’s intentions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the issue of perceptions and misperceptions between these two rival countries.Research QuestionsThis article aimed to analyze how Chinese elites perceive the intentions and policies of American officials towards Beijing. Understanding the perceptions of Chinese elites can shed light on their behavior and reactions to events in the international system for outside observers. For the purposes of this research, Chinese elites refer to influential groups in policymaking and public opinion, including policymakers, university professors, researchers, journalists, and businessmen. Specifically, this study explored Chinese elites’ perceptions of US intentions, Washington’s policies towards Taiwan and India, the rivalry between the two countries, and Beijing’s future role in the international order.Literature ReviewDespite the critical importance of understanding China’s perceptions and misperceptions of US policies and goals, there has been limited research conducted on the topic. Boullenois et al. (2018) published a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, which studied the three distinct perceptions of Trump held by Chinese elites. Kennedy (2007) explored the US policies towards Taiwan and the perceptions of those policies among Chinese elites, while Sinkkonen and Elovainio (2020) surveyed the views of Chinese students and the educated class on the threats posed by America and Japan. Their findings indicated that students who consumed Chinese media for extended periods were more likely to be sympathetic to the media’s narrative of the enmity of Japan and America. In 2015, the Carnegie Institute published an analytical report titled “Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other” (Johnston & Shen, 2015), which analyzed Chinese people’s attitudes towards Americans and themselves, China’s role in international leadership, and the role of American parties in Chinese politics. Similar to the previous studies, the present research aimed to examine Chinese elites’ perceptions of the US policies and intentions and their impact on Beijing’s foreign policy. However, this study innovatively relied on authentic surveys and Chinese sources to extract and analyze the Chinese elites’ views about the US.MethodologyThis research employed the method of directed qualitative content analysis to extract and analyze Chinese elites’ perceptions of US policies and intentions towards Beijing. Directed qualitative content analysis is a deductive approach that begins by determining the variables and key concepts of the research based on a theoretical framework and existing literature. Then, the researcher collects, codes, and analyzes data related to these variables and concepts. In this study, the data related to the variables specified in the conceptual framework was collected from the Chinese elites’ views and interviews, as well as the review of the existing literature in the field. The collected date was then coded, decoded, and analyzed within the conceptual framework. Finally, the study went on to examine the effects of those perceptions on China–US relations. The variables were also categorized based on the items specified in the conceptual framework.ResultsThe research findings indicate that Chinese elites perceive the US as follows: 1) China’s main enemy, 2) China’s identity enemy, 3) China’s main rival in international leadership, 4) China’s main economic and technological competitor, and 5) the challenger to China’s regional power. According to the results, younger elites are less pessimistic than their older counterparts, while businessmen hold a more pessimistic outlook than political or academic elites. Discussion A crucial element in China–US relations is the perception that the window of strategic opportunity is closing. According to the analysis, Chinese decision-makers view the favorable foreign environment as a strategic opportunity for China’s growth. The US was preoccupied with issues in other regions and did not actively seek to curb China, which created a strategic opportunity for China. However, many Chinese strategists now believe that this strategic opportunity is diminishing, and China will face increased pressure going forward. This shift in the strategic environment is likely to alter Beijing’s calculations and approach. These factors have contributed to China’s more assertive and confrontational foreign policy towards the US inrecent years, while attempting to manage the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.ConclusionThe rigorous economic policies imposed by the US on China have led many Chinese experts to perceive that America is in decline while China is on the rise, and this trend cannot be halted in the long term. Additionally, China’s skepticism towards international norms and institutions dominated by the West, particularly the US, has grown. When these norms and institutions impinge on China’s critical interests, Beijing’s distrust and confrontational stance intensify.By observing the US policies, China concludes that the US easily uses international norms and institutions to advance its own interests and resorts to double standards. Deep pessimism towards international norms lies in the realistic view among many Chinese strategists that the international system is ultimately an anarchic system in which the most powerful actors determine the rules. What is important is the relative power of the country and its material capacities.Finally, some US policies have made Chinese elites worry that America may create more problems for China. For example, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions concerning climatic changes, free trade, and arms control has concerned China. Moreover, according to the Chinese, America ignores the trade problems of other countries and blames others for its own problems. Therefore, China considers America a troublesome country. This situation will not only reduce the economicinterdependence between the two countries in the long term, but also intensify the possibility of conflict between the two.
International Relations
hossein delavar; Rashid Recabian
Abstract
Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic ...
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Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic and global spheres to respond to the emerging requirements. This has led scholars to debate the consequences of this balancing model for the decision-making circles of the world states, especially for the US and the international order.Significance and ObjectivesThe present article intended to analyze the prospect of change in the contemporary international order (structural order) by examining whether new poles are emerging in the current international order or not.The Main Question What are the consequences and challenges of China’s behavioral pattern for the United States and the structural international order?Research Hypothesis This research is based on the hypothesis that China’s behavioral pattern presents complex challenges to the US general policy towards China. This points to the uncertainties in predicting the consequences of China’s rise, in which policymakers face challenges in choosing between containment or engagement policy. China’s behavioral pattern is also seen as a reason for changing the structure of the international system and shaping the China–US bipolar order. In this respect, the following two points were suggested and discussed. First, the power gap between China and the United States will become almost equal, resulting in a dual superpower scenario where the United States will lose its superiority over China. Second, the strategic competition between China and the US will be very different from the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. China and the US will continue to cooperate in various fields (e.g., economy), while they may have conflicts in political and military domains.Research Method The present research used the historical research method with a descriptive–analytical and explanatory approach.Theoretical Framework This study used defensive structural realism as its theoretical framework in order to analyze the systemic characteristics of the international order, including the distribution and increase of power, and explain their effects on the behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is considered as the most important variable in the paradigm of structural realism.Kenneth Waltz’s theory of international politics offers a clear example of defensive structural realism. The present article contends that Waltz’s perspective should be taken seriously not only because it is the most accurate or realistic theory, but because it provides useful categories for comprehending reality. For instance, his concept of polarity determination helps to shape the behavioral priorities of countries and structural order of power distribution among units, which can be measured and typically changes in response to shifts in power among major states. Additionally, his focus on some kind of cooperation in the discussion on balance of power is also a valuable analytical category.Article Text Due to the post-Cold War international conditions, China has adopted a macro model of balancing, at domestic and global levels, in its strategic relationships with the US. Domestically, China has focused on building up its internal capabilities, while on the global stage it has pursued soft balancing. China’s balancing strategy in the unipolar world order is a reasonable and pragmatic response to its interests, capabilities, and strategic environment. Like any other government, China seeks to maximize its benefits and minimize losses in the field of foreign relations. Showing a keen awareness of the evolving international system, China has adeptly seized opportunities and confronted challenges. However, this behavioral pattern has important consequences and challenges for the international order, particularly for the US as the dominant pole.The balancing strategy pursued by China has generated complex conditions for decision-makers across the international system, particularly in the US as the superpower. Its most significant impact has been on the mentality of elites and their interpretation of the new realities, which has prompted a need to reassess American foreign policy.China’s behavioral pattern has enabled it to capitalize on broad opportunities and emerge as a decisive player in international politics, with its ongoing quest for power likely to have significant implications for the future of international politics. However, this development is closely tied to America’s position as the dominant pole of the international order, making the strategic relations between the two countries increasingly intertwined. As a result, managing these relations has become the most pressing issue in international politics, with stability and crisis in the global order at stake. As such, analyzing the pattern underlying China’s behavior and its relations with the US is critical for understanding the changing international order and its future trajectory.ConclusionChina is neither an ally nor a partner of the US and does not feel obligated to align its policies with those of America. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not adopt an explicitly adversarial stance towards the US. This has created challenges and consequences for the overall US policy towards China, and introduced uncertainties that pose significant challenges for policymakers in choosing between a policy of containment or engagement. An examination of the challenges posed by China’s behavioral pattern suggests that a combination of containment and engagement policies is more effective in serving American interests when dealing with China. While addressing the concerns of proponents of containment, the hybrid policy also attempts to avoid the pitfalls of mutual hostility, which is a major concern of supporters of engagement. This policy reflects the uncertainty in Washington about China’s future goals and capabilities. However, if China were to pursue regional hegemony or launch an attack on Taiwan, the hybrid policy could shift towards containment. Conversely, if China were to democratize and cooperate, this containment-plus-engagement policy could be replaced by a more cooperative relationship between the two countries.
International Relations
Seyedreza Mousavinia; Seyed mohammad Aminabadi
Abstract
IntroductionThe distribution of power in the international system and the relationship between the two are important indicators for the analysis of international crises. There is a direct relationship between the structure of the international system and stability, conflict, and crisis; therefore, the ...
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IntroductionThe distribution of power in the international system and the relationship between the two are important indicators for the analysis of international crises. There is a direct relationship between the structure of the international system and stability, conflict, and crisis; therefore, the nature, consequences, and management of international crises as well as behavioral patterns of international actors all vary according to the structure of the international system. The present research seeks to explain the relationship between the two by focusing on the negative and positive impact of the bipolar structure on the escalation of the Syrian crisis. It is assumed that the behavior of states is influenced by the structure of the international system, be it unipolar, bipolar, multipolar, or transitional.The study tries to answer the key question as to how the positive and negative role of the bipolar structure contributed to the escalation of the Syrian crisis. The research is based on the main hypothesis that the lack of systemic limitations particular to the bipolar structure of the Cold War restricted identity, ideological, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region during the Syrian crisis, and that the crisis escalated—from both negative and positive perspectives—due to the emergence of the putative bipolar structure at the regional level through the zero-sum game between the two regional poles, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with their regional allies and proxy arms. Despite the extensive literature both about the Syrian crisis and about the impact of the structure of the international system on international crises, no independent research seems to have been conducted on the negative and positive impact of the bipolar structure on the Syrian crisis, so the present research has novelty in this respect.The structure of the international system and the Syrian crisisThis research argues that the distribution of power in the international system, also known as structure, undeniably affects the political and security dynamism at the level of the regional (sub)systems. During the Cold War, the two superpowers could not be indifferent to the instability in the strategic regions of the world because any instability and crisis therein would lead to an ideological vacuum and the possibility that the vacuum would be filled with rival ideologies—hence changes in the status of the satellite countries. However, the collapse of the bipolar system and the end of the Cold War resulted in a period of instability in the international system. According to Waltz and Mearsheimer, the systems that are not bipolar are unstable, and the instability undeniably affects the escalation of international crises and conflicts, such as the Syrian crisis.The Syrian crisis was characterized by the lack of bipolarity, a transitional period in the international system, and the absence of a new system and establishment of new rules. As a result, the US, uncertain about its strategy for stepping in the crisis, transferred its responsibility for maintaining the stability of the system to its regional allies; consequently, the intervention of regional actors, as one of the main factors, contributed to the escalation of the Syrian crisis. Meanwhile, the lack of the stabilizing structure prepared the ground for the formation of a regional bipolar structure centered on Iran and Saudi Arabia and their proxy arms, which would escalate the instability. By defining their interests in the Syrian crisis within the zero-sum game (i.e., maintaining Assad/overthrowing Assad), the regional bipolarity played a big role in escalating the Syrian crisis, and Syria became the main field for the new regional cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.ConclusionSyria was considered as one of the Soviet satellites during the Cold War, so if the Syrian crisis had occurred during the Cold War, Russia would have stepped in the crisis, the US would have withdrawn from it, and regional actors (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey) would not have been allowed to use their proxy forces (e.g., Hezbollah, the Free Army, and Salafi groups) in order to play an independent role in the crisis in line with their interests. The reason is that the bipolar system would not essentially allow the regional actor to play an independent role in the system. However, the Syrian crisis escalated as a result of the end of the bipolar system, the transitional situation in which the rules of the new system had not been established yet, the US strategic uncertainty about how to step in the crisis, its fear of military intervention and experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, its transfer of responsibility to its weak regional allies, the regional bipolarity centered on Iran and Saudi Arabia and their ensuing strong presence with their proxy forces—in line with their predetermined interests—and finally the historical opportunism of Russia to restore its dignity and historical status in the Middle East and support its historic ally.
International Relations
Majid Reza Momeni; Narges Khangol zadeh Sangroodi
Abstract
As two emerging Asian powers, India and China, have tried to expand their relations with Arab Countries of the Persian Gulf through public diplomacy which can be a platform for the realization of the foreign policy goals of these two countries. this study tries to address this important question that ...
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As two emerging Asian powers, India and China, have tried to expand their relations with Arab Countries of the Persian Gulf through public diplomacy which can be a platform for the realization of the foreign policy goals of these two countries. this study tries to address this important question that what are the differences and similarities of public diplomacy between India and China in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf between 2001and2021? The hypothesis in response to this question is that the importance of the concept and position of public diplomacy in order to acquire foreign policy goals and more influence in the region, as well as the use of language, literature and culture are similarities between the two countries; Methods of conducting public diplomacy including the film industry, the Confucius Institute, diaspora activity and the “Belt Road initiative” are the differences of Indo-Chinese public diplomacy. In this study, a comparative method is used to analyze the differences and similarities of public diplomacy between India and China in the Persian Gulf Arab countries. The finding of the research indicates that public diplomacy as the tool of national interests has been in the focus of India and China and this point is important for Iran based on the principle of neighborhood policy.
International Relations
Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Abstract
In comparison to relations with other European major powers, Iran-Germany relations have been less fragile, more largely stable and expanding. Analysts consider historical, economic, and geopolitical reasons for this feature. One of the difficulties in studying German foreign policy is that the country ...
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In comparison to relations with other European major powers, Iran-Germany relations have been less fragile, more largely stable and expanding. Analysts consider historical, economic, and geopolitical reasons for this feature. One of the difficulties in studying German foreign policy is that the country has abandoned its geopolitical rivalries because of the tough lessons of world war II and has devoted most of its potential to the international economy. Moreover, Germany cannot regulate its foreign policy beyond the framework of its transatlantic commitments, as well as principles and norms of the common European foreign policy. For this reason, the analysis of German foreign policy should focus more on the relatively covert behavior of the country than usual positions by the officials. The study of Iran-Germany relations stands within this framework. This paper aims to focus on the question that why Germany has done its best to emphasize an interactive model in the face of the US confrontation with Iran, and to make the EU to follow this behavior? This paper provides a historical-analytical framework for a deeper understanding of German policy toward Iran, as well as focusing on Germany's approach toward Iran after the JCPOA, especially when Trump lost the presidency.
