Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Sara Tajik ¹
• Seyed Masoud  Mousavi Shafaee ²

¹ Ph.D Student, International Relations, ,Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran,Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of International Relations,,Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction                                  
After the Cold War, the world order shifted from military–ideological rivalry to economic and geoeconomic competition. Major powers such as the U.S. and China began using economic instruments to expand their influence. The Middle East—owing to its strategic location and energy resources—has become a central arena in this new form of rivalry. In this context, China aims to deepen its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative and extensive investment in infrastructure and trade with the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Meanwhile, the U.S., the traditional hegemon, has sought to counterbalance Beijing through diplomatic, military, and economic initiatives, including the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This rivalry reflects a broader transition of power from military dominance to economic competition, carrying the potential to reshape both the geoeconomic landscape of the Middle East and the global structure of power. In this respect, the present aimed to draw on power transition theory to examine how China–U.S. competition influences the GCC states and redefines the regional economic–political order.
Literature Review
Several studies examined the competitive dynamics between China and the U.S. amid the current global power transition, as well as and their implications for the Middle East’s evolving geoeconomic landscape. For example, the edited volume titled Geo-economics and Power Politics in the 21st Century (Wigell et al., 2019) offered a valuable analytical framework for understanding geoeconomic rivalry among states. It argues that the structural features of the contemporary international system shape the strategic imperatives guiding foreign policy; moreover, countries tend to pursue their political objectives through the use of economic tools. The geopolitical rivalry between China and the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific during the 21st century is further examined in the article “The US-China Geo-Economic War and Its Impact on the International Economic Order” (Salehi & Mousavi Shafaee, 2023). It focused on infrastructure projects and the geoeconomic and geopolitical significance of both powers in the region.
Materials and Methods
As a qualitative inquiry, the present study employed a descriptive–analytical approach to address the China–U.S. geoeconomic competition in the GCC. The data was collected from library and online sources. Moreover, power transition theory was used as the theoretical framework.
Results and Discussion
The rise of China’s economic power in recent decades is widely regarded as a primary driver of contemporary shifts in global power dynamics, given its far-reaching effects across international and regional spheres. Within the framework of power transition theory, the intensifying rivalry between China (as an emerging power) and the U.S. (as the established hegemon)—coupled with the resurgence of regionalism—has become a central focus of analysis. China’s growing presence in the Middle East coincides with the continued influence of a long-standing superpower in the region. Despite the economic rise of states such as China and Japan, the U.S. still retains substantial strategic interest in Middle Eastern oil and gas resources, both to meet its own energy needs and to prevent competitors from gaining access to these vital resources. The implications of this competition for the global system and the regional order of the Middle East have thus emerged as critical issues in the current international landscape. Recent efforts by both China and the U.S. to bolster ties with Middle Eastern oil-producing states—particularly members of the GCC—underscore their strategic maneuver to secure access to key energy resources. The geo-economic landscape of the GCC member states is shaped primarily by their abundant oil and gas reserves and their strategic geographical location. China has employed the economic means and launched major infrastructure initiatives—most notably the Belt and Road Initiative—to attract regional partners, resulting in strengthened trade relations with the GCC countries and substantial investments in energy security, technology, and transportation. In response to China’s perceived aggression, the U.S., together with its allies, has proposed initiatives such as the IMEC to counterbalance China’s regional influence. As the long-standing superpower in the Middle East, the U.S. has sought to deepen security cooperation with its partners to limit China’s expanding presence among the GCC states. However, despite the U.S. efforts, the GCC member states are increasingly inclined to establish closer ties with the East, aligning themselves with China’s economic policies and infrastructure projects. Consequently, this competition, embedded within broader global transformations, signals significant shifts in the global value chain and, by extension, in the economic and geoeconomic structure shaping the Middle East and the GCC region.
Conclusion
The geoeconomic rivalry between China and the U.S. within the GCC was analyzed through the lens of power transition theory, which highlights the ongoing transformation of the international order. This rivalry extends beyond economic competition to encompass significant geopolitical and strategic implications for the states of the region. China has substantially expanded its economic influence by strengthening trade and investment ties, particularly in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Meanwhile, the U.S. seeks to maintain its hegemonic position through financial mechanisms, sanctions, and trade agreements. This competition has reshaped global value chains and altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, leaving the GCC states in a precarious position as they seek to formulate future strategic initiatives.

Keywords

• Power Transition
• Hegemonic Order
• Value Chains
• Persian Gulf Cooperation Council
• Belt and Roa

Main Subjects

• Political economy