Document Type : Research Paper
Abstract
Transition in the international system is a prevalent and inevitable process and theories of international relations really pay attention to this. But development of international system and emergence of complex and chaotic system make a change in power transition model and this change requires a new explanation. On the other way Iran is among the countries that because of centrality in some regional orders and its internal dynamics is directly affected to these transition models. Therefore this article focuses on these questions that how transition in the complex and chaotic international system is explained and what are threats of Iran in new power transition model and how transition control model is applied by it? In respond to these questions the author believes that transition is directly linked to features of complexity as include bifurcation of order.in this respect author recognizes bifurcated transition as main feature of transition in these systems and suggests bifurcated transition model as new concept to international relations literature. Research method in this article is focused on critical realism and deduction and abduction and based on this, firstly the rules and algorithms of complex and chaotic systems will be characterized and then these rules are combined in new model as bifurcated transition model.
Keywords
الف- فارسی
- زرقانی، هادی، (1392)، «سنجش و رتبهبندی قدرت ملی کشورها در جهان اسلام»، فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی جهان اسلام، شماره 2.
ب- انگلیسی
- Agnew, J. A. (2003), Geopolitics: Re-visioning World Politics, NewYork, and London, Routledge.
- Amidror, Y, (2007), “The Hizballah-Syria-Iran Triangle”, Middle East Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 11, No.1.
- Anderson, E, (2013), Middle East: Geography and Geopolitics, NewYork and London ,Routledge.
- Ashby, W. R, (1956), An Introduction to Cybernetics, London, Chapman & Hall Ltd.
- Avelino, F., & Rotmans, J, (2009), “Power in Transition: An Interdisciplinary Framework to Study Power in Relation to Structural Change”, European Journal of Social Theory, Vol,12. No, 4.
- Bertuglia, C. S., & Vaio, F, (2005), Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Complexity: The Dynamics of Natural and Social systems, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Chan, S. (2007), China, the US and the Power-transition Theory: A Critique: NewYork and London, Routledge.
- Christensen, T. J, (2006), “Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster? The Rise of China and US policy toward East Asia”, International Security, Vl.31, No.1.
- Connery, C. L, (2001), “Ideologies of Land and Sea: Alfred Thayer Mahan, Carl Schmitt, and the Shaping of Global Myth Elements”, Boundary. Vol.28, No.2.
- Coşkun, B. B, (2009), “Global Energy Geopolitics and Iran”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Vol.5, No.20.
- D'Agostino, G., & Scala, A. (2014), Networks of networks: the last frontier of complexity (Vol. 340),NewYork, Springer.
- Dingjun, L., Xian, W., Deming, Z., & Maoan, H, (1997), Bifurcation Theory and Methods of Dynamical Systems, Vol. 15, London,World Scientific.
- Doran, C. F, (1989), “Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle Challenges for Research Design”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.33, No.3.
- Efird, B., Kugler, J., & Genna, G, (2003), “From war to Integration: Generalizing Power transition theory”, International Interactions, Vol. 29, No.4.
- Érdi, P, (2007), Complexity Explained,Berlin, Springer Science & Business Media.
- Feistel, R., & Ebeling, W, (1989), Evolution of Complex Systems: Self-organization, Entropy, and Development, Vol. 30, Netherlands, Springer.
- Fichter, L. S., Pyle, E., & Whitmeyer, S, (2010), “Strategies and Rubrics for Teaching Chaos and Complex Systems Theories as Elaborating, self-organizing, and fractionating evolutionary systems", Journal of Geoscience Education, Vol.58,No.2.
- Gilpin, R, (1988), “The Theory of Hegemonic War”, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vo.18, No.4.
- Grieco, J. M, (1988), “Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism”, International Organization, Vol.42, No. 3.
- Harkavy, R. E, (2013), Great Power Competition for Overseas Bases: The Geopolitics of Access Diplomacy, Newyork,Pergamon Press.
- Heylighen, F., & Joslyn, C, (2001), “Cybernetics and Second order Cybernetics”, Encyclopedia of Physical Science & Technology, No. 4.
- Hillas, J, (1990), “On the Definition of the Strategic Stability of Equilibria”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, V0l. 58, No. 6.
- Hinnebusch, R. A., & Ehteshami, A. (2002), The Foreign Policies of Middle East States, U.S.A, Lynne Rienner Publishers.
- Katzenstein, P. J, (2005), A World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium, Ithaca, Cornell University Press.
- Khong, Y. F, (2001), “Negotiating order During Power Transitions”, Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International order, United Nations University Press.
- Kim, W, (1991), “Alliance Transitions and Great Power War”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4.
- Kim, W, (1992), “Power Transitions and Great Power War from Westphalia to Waterloo”, World Politics, Vol. 45, No.1.
- Kugler, J., & Zagare, F. C. (1990), “The Long‐term Stability of Deterrence”, International Interactions, Vol.15, No.34.
- Kupchan, C., Davidson, J., & Sucharov, M, (2001), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International order, NewYork, United Nations University Press.
- Lai, D, (2011), The United States and China in Power Transition, Army War Coll Strategic Studies INS Carlisle barracks PA..
- Lake, D. A, (1996), “Anarchy, Hierarchy, and the Variety of International Relations”, International Organization, Vol. 50, No.1.
- Lebow, R. N., & Valentino, B, (2009), “Lost in Transition: A Critical Analysis of Power Transition Theory”, International Relations, Vol. 23, No. 3.
- Lee, D. S, (2006), When are Power Shifts Dangerous?: Military Strategy and Preventive War. Journal of International and Area Studies, Vol.13, No.2.
- Lemke, D. (2002), Regions of war and peace (Vol. 80), Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
- Levy, J. S, (1987), “Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War”, World Politics, Vol. 40, No.1.
- Mackinder, H. J, (1904), The Geographical Pivot of History, The Geographical Journal, Vol. 23, No. 4.
- Mackinder, H. J. (1950), Democratic Ideals and Reality: a Study in the Politics of Reconstruction, Washington, National Defence University Press.
- Maloney, S, (2008), Iran's Long Reach: Iran as a Pivotal State in the Muslim World, Washington, US Institute of Peace Press.
- Mead, W. R. (2014), "Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers", The Foreign affairs,Vol. 93, No.3.
- Modelski, G, (1978), “The Long Cycle of Global Politics and the Nation-state”, Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 20, No.2.
- Modelski, G., & Morgan, P. M, (1985), “Understanding Global War”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 29, No.3.
- Nechansky, H, (2009), “Elements of a Cybernetic Epistemology: Design Rules for Complex Goal-orientated Systems”, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Vol. 26, No.4.
- Noi, A. Ü, (2006), “Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Is it Possible for Iran to Become Full Member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under Pressure of Nuclear Issue?”, Journal of International Affairs, Vol.11, No. 4.
- Norling, N., & Swanström, N, (2007), “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Trade, and the Roles of Iran, India, and Pakistan”, Central Asian Survey, Vol.26, No. 3.
- Organski, A. (2014), Power Transition, The Realism Reader, London and New York, Routledge.
- Pask, G, (1968), An Approach to Cybernetics Volume, London: Hutchinson and Co City.
- Powell, R, (1994), “Anarchy in International Relations Theory: The Neorealist-neoliberal Debate”, International Organization, Vol.48, No.2.
- Ramazani, R. K, (1987), Revolutionary Iran: Challenge and Response in the Middle East, Baltimore, JHU Press.
- Rapkin, D., & Thompson, W, (2003), “Power Transition, Challenge and the (re) Emergence of China”, International Interactions, Vol.29, No.4.
- Rosecrance, R, (1987), “Long Cycle Theory and International Relations”, International organization, Vol.4, No.2.
- Rotmans, J., & Loorbach, D. (2009), "Complexity and transition management", Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol.13,No.2.
- Roy, D, (1994), “Hegemon on the Horizon? China's Threat to East Asian Security”, International Security, Vol.19,No.1.
- Rubin, B, (2006), “Iran: The Rise of a Regional Power”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10, No.3.
- Schofield, C. H., & Storey, I, (2009), The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tensions, Washington, Jamestown Foundation.
- Segal, G. (1996), “East Asia and the Containment of China”, International Security, Vol. 20, No.4.
- Shambaugh, D, (2013), China Goes Global: The Partial Power, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Simes, D. K. (1999), After the collapse: Russia seeks its place as a great power,NewYork, Simon, and Schuster.
- Sobek, D., & Wells, J, (2013), “Dangerous Liaisons: Dyadic Power Transitions and the Risk of Militarized Disputes and Wars”, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 46, No.1.
- Spykman, N. J, (1942), America's Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power: NewJersey, Transaction Publishers.
- Tammen, R. L., & Kugler, J, (2006), “Power Transition and China–US Conflicts”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol.1, No.1.
- Tessman, B. F., & Chan, S, (2004), “Power Cycles, Risk Propensity, and Great-power Deterrence”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 2.
- Troger, H., & Steindl, A, (1991), Nonlinear Stability and Bifurcation Theory, Berlin, Springer-Verlag.
- Vasquez, J. A, (1996), When are Power Transitions Dangerous? An Appraisal and Reformulation of Power Transition Theory, Parity, and War, ed. Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke. Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press.
- Walker, S. G, (1987), Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis, United States, Duke University Press.
- Werner, S., & Kugler, J, (1996), Power Transitions and Military Buildups: Resolving the Relationship between Arms Build-ups and War”, Parity and War, Michigan, University of Michigan Press.
- Wilkinson, D, (1985), Spykman and Geopolitics On Geopolitics: Classical and Nuclear , Netherlands Springer.
- Zhu, ZG (2006), US-China Relations in the 21st Century: Power Transition and Peace, London and NewYork, Routledge.
)