Scenario Planning of Extra-Regional Threats to Iran

Mottaghi, Afshin; Ghorbani Sepehr, Parisa; Ghorbani Sepehr, Arash

doi:10.22054/qpss.2026.92726.3777

Scenario Planning of Extra-Regional Threats to Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Afshin Mottaghi ¹

Parisa Ghorbani Sepehr ²

Arash Ghorbani Sepehr ³

¹ Professor, Geographic Political, Kahrazmi University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D. Student in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran,

³ Postdoctoral Researcher in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran

10.22054/qpss.2026.92726.3777

Abstract

Unlike traditional threats, extra-regional threats do not follow linear patterns. By creating cross-effects among key variables, they expose national security to chain imbalances and gradual collapses. This study identifies probable futures of extra-regional threats to Iran's national security using a futures studies approach, scenario planning based on cross-impact analysis, and MICMAC/ScenarioWizard software. Two consistent scenarios were identified. "Fruitless Victory" (A1+B1+C1+D3) combines external success with paralyzing internal crisis. "Hard Fortress" (A3+B3+C1+D1), weighted at 19, is the most probable scenario, combining external political-military siege, successful diversification of trade partners, and smart internal management. Results indicate that Iran's most probable future is "Hard Fortress": external siege without paralysis. However, this scenario is inherently unstable. The assumption of smart internal management (D1) receives the least support from other components. Resistance economy and partner diversification (C1) emerged as Iran's strongest asset across all scenarios, while status quo continuation (A2, B2, C2, D2) appeared in no probable scenario, indicating a polarized future. The study emphasizes that futures studies aim not to predict but to prepare for probable futures and design resilient structures. Strategic investment in strengthening weak links (especially D1) and consolidating strong links (especially C1) is the most critical priority for preserving Iran's national security.

Keywords

Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Iran's National Security, Extra-Regional Threats, Cross-Impact Analysis

Subjects