Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Matin Anjomrooz ¹
• Mohammad Khezri ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Rasht Branch, Rasht, Iran

² Ph.D Student, Political Science - Public Policy, Department of Political Science, Science and Research, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
In recent decades, rapid and extensive changes in political, social, economic, and technological fields have created unprecedented and multidimensional challenges for policymakers. These changes have not only made public administration more difficult but also necessitated a fundamental revision of traditional policy approaches and a shift toward new paradigms. The present study aimed to explore the causes and mechanisms of paradigm shifts in policymaking and provide a comprehensive framework for understanding such transformations. The research sough to analyze the why and how of policy shifts in the context of refugee crisis in Iran. The main research question is: What are the driving factors and mechanisms behind policy shifts in policymaking?
Literature Review
Paradigm shifts in policymaking are shaped by a range of factors, including global crises, technological advances, social changes, and international pressures. Several theoretical frameworks—such as Hall’s paradigm shift theory, institutionalism, and discourse analysis—seek to explain how these transformations occur. In “Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain,” Hall (1993) distinguishes three levels of policy change: instruments, goals, and paradigms. Institutionalism highlights the influence of institutions on policy development, while discourse analysis focuses on how language and discourse shape policy formation. Major global crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID–19 pandemic, exemplify external drivers that can trigger paradigm shifts.
Materials and Methods
This research employed qualitative methods and a case study design. Focusing on the refugee crisis in Iran, the data was collected through policy documents and international reports. The analysis drew on several theoretical frameworks: Hall’s paradigm shift theory, institutionalism, and discourse analysis. These frameworks enabled the examination of changes in Iran’s migration, security, economic, and social policies in response to the refugee crisis.
Results and Discussion
As the findings revealed, policy shifts in Iran’s response to the refugee crisis have been driven by a combination of internal and external factors. The crisis has prompted significant changes in migration, security, economic, and social policies. For instance, Iran has adopted stricter border controls and reduced the number of newly registered refugees, reflecting a shift toward managing existing refugee populations rather than admitting new ones. These changes align with Hall’s paradigm shift theory, as they represent a fundamental rethinking of policy goals and instruments in response to the limitations of previous approaches.
Institutional factors have also played a critical role in shaping these policy shifts. The Iranian government has implemented stricter residency renewal processes, with only 60% of eligible refugees successfully renewing their residency permits in recent years. This reflects the influence of institutionalism, as changes in institutional oversight and evaluation mechanisms directly impact policy outcomes. Additionally, the deployment of advanced surveillance systems along Iran’s eastern borders has reduced illegal entries by 30%, demonstrating how institutional innovations can drive policy changes in response to security concerns.
Economic and social dimensions of the refugee crisis have further contributed to policy shifts. The influx of refugees has intensified competition in low-wage labor markets, leading to economic pressures and social tensions. Despite efforts to integrate refugees, challenges such as discrimination and cultural friction persist, with nearly 70% of Afghan refugees reporting social and economic hardships. These findings highlight the complex interplay of economic, social, and institutional factors in shaping policy responses to the refugee crisis, underscoring the need for comprehensive and adaptive policymaking approaches.
Paradigm shifts in policymaking are complex and multifaceted phenomena that require a deep understanding of the interaction of various factors and mechanisms of change. Global crises, technological advancements, and social changes are among the key drivers of policy shifts. In the case of Iran, the refugee crisis has had profound impact on public policies, necessitating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to effectively manage the crisis. Policymakers must continuously monitor global and domestic developments and use mechanisms such as policy learning and institutional innovations to create effective and sustainable policy changes.
Conclusion
Paradigm shifts in policymaking are an inevitable process driven by rapid social, economic, technological, and environmental changes. Policymakers must actively respond to environmental and social changes and leverage the opportunities arising from these changes to improve policy efficiency and effectiveness. Increasing public participation and strengthening the legitimacy of policies through transparent and inclusive discourse can help reduce resistance to change and increase the acceptance of new policies. A deep understanding of the drivers of paradigm shifts and the mechanisms of change can help policymakers better navigate future transformations and design sustainable and effective policies.

Keywords

• Policy Shift
• Iran
• Paradigm Shift
• Institutionalism
• Discourse Analysis
• Refugee Crisis

Main Subjects

• Public policy