Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Soroush Shabani Khatibani ¹
• Ali Alizadeh ²

¹ LLM, Regional Studies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
The South Caucasus region—comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—has long been a focal point of geopolitical tension and instability. The current study aimed to explore the significant intra-regional factors affecting security arrangements in the South Caucasus. It tried to answer the following research question: What are the effects of the most important intra-regional factors on the security arrangements in the South Caucasus?
Literature Review
Numerous studies have explored the intra-regional causes influencing the security arrangements in the South Caucasus. For instance, in “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Security in the Caucasus,” German (2012) identified several key intra-regional factors, including the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, historical animosity, diverse strategic orientations, and limited cooperation at the state level. Cornell (2017) pointed to persistent territorial conflicts, external threats, and the evolving relationships of South Caucasus republics with regional and great powers as complicating factors for regional security. Chechelashvili (2021) highlights conflict zones, potential for economic cooperation, regional organizations, and the influence of major world powers as intra-regional determinants of security, also noting Georgia’s potential to foster regional stability.
The article “Russian and Turkish Approaches to Security Arrangements in the South Caucasus” (Hoseinzadeh et al., 2018) identified conflict resolution, the development of a multilateral trust regime, and intra-regional economic growth as crucial intra-regional components. In “South Caucasus Security Arrangements: Future Opportunities and Challenges,” Jafarinia et al. (2023) focused on the Karabakh conflict and the economic development of the countries in the region. Moreover, in “On Regional Security Governance Once Again,” Ceccorulli (2016) examined domestic factors and highlighted the Karabakh issue, energy security, and the significant but limited role of private sector actors. The literature converges on a central issue, that is, a relative lack of in-depth focus on the intra-regional determinants of security arrangements. While these factors are mentioned, the existing literature often fails to elaborate on them, leaving a discernible gap in research.
Materials and Methods
This research employed a descriptive method complemented by qualitative document analysis. Neoclassical realism was used as the theoretical framework. The process began with identifying the main topic areas, followed by selecting relevant documents and categorizing them according to the research questions. Using a bottom-up approach, three main elements with six indicators were developed based on theoretical models. The analysis proceeded in three stages: (1) initial screening, which involved a quick summary of qualitative and quantitative information; (2) intensive reading, dedicated to meticulous examination for extracting key information organized into important elements; and (3) final interpretation, where facts were matched to address the research questions. Relying on library sources and statistical data, the study employed triangulation—combining descriptive analysis with qualitative document analysis—to ensure the reliability and validity of findings.
Results and Discussion
The regional power structure was examined through two primary indicators, namely the distribution of power among the three republics and the level of regional polarization. According the results, the distribution of power among Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia is inherently asymmetrical, driven by significant disparities in both hard
power (military capacity) and soft power (economic capacity). This imbalance has yielded two critical security outcomes. First, dominant states—such as Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia, or separatist actors in Georgia—possess a higher probability of success, which incentivizes them to initiate conflicts. Second, weaker states often seek to restore equilibrium by forging alliances with external powers, thereby embedding regional disputes within the geopolitical rivalries of extra-regional actors. Regarding polarization, the analysis highlighted the divergent foreign policy orientations of the three states: Georgia’s pro-Western tendency, Armenia’s alignment with Russia, and Azerbaijan’s more balanced approach. Consequently, no single internal or external actor has managed to incentivize the South Caucasian states to adopt a bandwagoning policy, which remains the primary mechanism that could otherwise reduce uncertainty and enhance stability in the region.
The economic factors shaping regional security were examined in two broad respects: the level of interdependence between the republics and their roles in energy transmission lines. Research indicates that this interdependence is surprisingly low, particularly between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which limits the scope for cooperation and conflict resolution. In addition, energy transmission lines are of crucial significance to the geopolitical standing of the region. Efforts to reduce dependence on Russia and the willingness to undermine Armenia are highlighted, a strategy referred to as elimination policy. This low level of economic interdependence suggests that internal groups seeking stability for economic gain have minimal influence on the foreign policy of these nations.
The military-security factor was examined through two critical indicators: territorial disputes and ethnic tensions. The interplay
between these two can escalate ethnic tensions—as seen in the Karabakh conflict and the 2008 Georgia war—into full-blown territorial disputes and total wars. These intense disputes remain unresolved, aligning with William Zartman’s ripeness theory. The historical legacy of the Soviet era, coupled with deep-seated ethnic tensions in the region, significantly fuels these conflicts. Furthermore, the current regional power structure—marked by an imbalanced distribution of power and a lack of bandwagoning policies—fosters a sense of potential victory among stronger parties. Ethnic tensions impact regional security in two primary ways: first, through state actions towards its minorities, and second, through transborder ethnic minorities. These groups include the Kists, Javakheti Armenians, Ahiska Turks, and Georgian Azeris in the region, as well as the Lezgins and Talysh communities in Azerbaijan. Such tensions not only exacerbate existing disputes but also have the potential to ignite new ones. This complicates the establishment of lasting security agreements by fostering leaders’ negative perceptions and a pessimistic strategic culture towards external relations and foreign collaboration, particularly in security matters.
Conclusion
This research identified and analyzed three primary intra-regional factors shaping the security arrangements in the South Caucasus. They include the regional power structure, economic factors, and military-security factors. Each of these factors was further divided into indicators that would build up the overall security environment of the region. The examination of intra-regional factors affecting the security arrangements in the South Caucasus revealed a complex interplay of
variables contributing to regional instability. The convergence of factors creates a nuanced security dilemma that is not easily resolved and necessitates a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach to achieve regional stability and cooperation.

Keywords

• Security Arrangements
• South Caucasus
• Regional Power Structure
• Economic Factors
• Military-security Factors

Main Subjects

• International Relations