نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• وحید افراسیابان ¹
• سیدجلال دهقانی فیروزآبادی ²

¹ دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

² استاد روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

این مقاله روابط چین و خاورمیانه را در مواجهه با روسیه مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. مقاله با استفاده از دیدگاه نظریه بازی‌ها، رفتارها و تصمیم‌گیری‌های طرفین را تحلیل می‌کند و نشان می‌دهد که چگونه چین می‌تواند با اتخاذ استراتژی همگرایی منطقه‌ای با کشورهای خاورمیانه، توازن قدرت را در مواجهه با نفوذ روسیه در منطقه ایجاد و حفظ کند. پرسش این است که چگونه می‌توان از همگرایی منطقه‌ای میان چین و کشورهای خاورمیانه به‌عنوان راهبردی در جهت تعدیل توازن در مواجهه با نفوذ روسیه در منطقه استفاده کرد؟ فرضیه این است همگرایی منطقه‌ای چین و کشورهای خاورمیانه با توجه به منافع مشترک اقتصادی، امنیتی و فرهنگی، می‌تواند نفوذ روسیه را در منطقه کاهش داده و توازن قدرت را در مواجهه با آن در منطقه به نفع چین تغییر دهد. این فرضیه با استناد به شواهد موجود، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. از آنجا که شواهد موجود نیازمند روش‌های آماری و محاسباتی هستند، از روش کمّی با رویکرد تبیینی استفاده شده است. نتایج به‌دست آمده، فرضیه را تأیید کرده و نشان داده‌اند همگرایی منطقه‌ای چین و خاورمیانه در حال گسترش است و می‌تواند نقش تعادل‌بخشی در برابر نفوذ روسیه و مواجهه با آن داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• همگرایی منطقه‌ای
• بسط نفوذ
• نظریه بازی‌ها
• منافع چین و روسیه
• موقعیت استراتژیک

موضوعات

• روابط بین الملل

عنوان مقاله [English]

China–Middle East Relations Amidst the Backdrop of Confrontation With Russia: Opportunities and Challenges

نویسندگان [English]

• Vahid Afrasiaban ¹
• Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firouzabadi ²

¹ Ph.D Student, Regional Studies, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

² Professor, International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The Middle East is a region of strategic importance, rich in natural resources such as oil and gas. Its cultural heritage and diverse population have historically attracted the influence of major global powers. In recent years, however, the region has become a competitive arena for emerging players like China and Russia, who are actively expanding their influence through economic, military, and diplomatic initiatives—despite facing considerable challenges. Moreover, decades of conflict—including wars, revolutions, and coups—have profoundly undermined the region's security and stability. Moreover, decades of conflict marked by wars, revolutions, and coups have profoundly undermined the region’s security and stability. In this context, regional integration has emerged as a strategic approach, advocating for greater collaboration among Middle Eastern nations to strengthen collective security against external threats, while advancing their shared interests and goals. With China’s increasing demand for the region’s oil and gas resources and its strong economic ties to the Middle East, the convergence between China and the Middle East is expected to create a mutually beneficial dynamic while diminishing Russia’s role. Key measures to foster this shift include enhancing international cooperation, strengthening trade exchanges, attracting joint investments, and expanding security collaborations, all of which are anticipated to counter Russia’s influence. At the same time, cooperation with China is expected to open new economic and cultural opportunities for Middle Eastern nations. The present study aimed to explore the complex dynamics between China, Russia, and the Middle East, with a particular focus on China’s strategic engagement as a counterbalance to Russian influence. It focused on the interactions between China and Russia in the Middle East and the role of regional convergence in shifting the balance of power towards China. The research rests upon the hypothesis that convergence based on shared economic, security, and cultural interests can limit Russia’s influence and shift the balance of power in favor of China. The main research question is as follows: How can the convergence between China and Middle Eastern countries reduce Russia’s influence and tilt the balance of power in favor of China?
Literature Review
Drawing on game theory and a wide range of secondary sources, Fulton and Sim (2022) analyzed the political, economic, and security roles of China and Russia in the region and the challenges these pose to U.S. interests. The edited volume The Routledge Guide to Middle East–China Relations (Fulton, 2022) delved into the historical, political, and diplomatic dimensions of China’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, emphasizing its significant impact on regional developments. Moreover, Chen (2021) highlighted China’s principle of non-interference, demonstrating how its growing economic interests are pursued through a non-intrusive approach designed to mitigate Russian influence while fostering stable relations with regional states. Additionally, Eron (2017) provided valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities China faces in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Israeli–Palestinian peace process, the Syrian conflict, and cooperation with Iran. It also addressed the limitations imposed by resource constraints and the influence of other international actors.
Materials and Methods
China–Russia interactions have significant impacts on security, economic, political, and cultural dimensions at regional and global levels. It is thus essential to understand this dynamic and its underlying factors. The strategy of regional convergence is proposed as an innovative approach to addressing these challenges, underscoring the need for cooperation among regional countries to strengthen their collective power and security. This research employed a combination of quantitative methods and case studies to analyze the impact and roles of China and Russia in the region and to identify the challenges facing China. Additionally, game theory was used to examine the China–Middle East relations, and to assess the impact of this cooperation on Russia’s relations and the overall shift in the balance of power.
Results and Discussion
This study examined regional convergence between China and Middle Eastern countries as a strategy to moderate and balance power in response to Russian influence. The competition between China and Russia for influence in the Middle East, along with China’s goal of creating balance in the region, supports the hypothesis that convergence based on shared economic, security, and cultural interests can reduce Russia’s influence in the region. Notably, China’s primary goal is not to counter Russia, but rather to establish regional balance and cooperation. China’s active international influence is strengthened by forming strong economic, political, and security relations with Middle Eastern countries, which can help mitigate Russia’s power. Using a quantitative approach, the study showed that regional convergence between China and Middle Eastern countries is expanding, serving as a balancing factor against Russia’s influence and significantly reducing its impact. Cooperation and competition between China and Russia in the Middle East depend on regional and global conditions. Therefore, regional convergence between China and Middle Eastern countries acts as a strategy to balance Russia’s influence and promote shared interests in the region. This study also presented a model to analyze regional convergence using game theory, while acknowledging its limitations in capturing real-world complexities and uncertainties.
Conclusion
Recent findings highlight the ongoing competition between China and Russia for influence in the Middle East. According to the results of this study, China’s power-balancing strategy in the region has led to a growing convergence with Middle Eastern countries, driven by shared economic, security, and cultural interests. This trend raises concerns that such convergence might diminish Russia's traditional role in the Middle East and shift the regional balance of power. The results confirmed that the strengthening ties between China and Middle Eastern nations have significant implications, potentially acting as a counterbalance to Russia’s influence. Overall, the evolving relationships between China and these countries could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. For stakeholders, it is essential to closely monitor these developments and assess their potential impact on regional stability and global dynamics.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Regional Convergence
• Influence Expansion
• Game Theory
• China and Russia's Interests
• Strategic Position