Developments in the Middle East
farshid farhadi; Afshin Mottaghi
Abstract
Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical ...
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Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical population is composed of two main categories: documents and elites. The latter is also divided into academic and executive groups. Data collection is also carried out using the library study and field survey methods. The research findings yielded 2 possible scenarios of Escape from Hobbesian and Again the spiral of fear. The general analysis of the scenarios suggests that new season will begin in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A situation whose important feature will be to reduce the intensity of tension and conflict between the two countries in the horizon of 2030. Of course, if the drivers of chaos, such as the negative role of America and Israel, do not prevail.
Developments in the Middle East
Majid Mohammadi; Ahmad Bakhshayeshi; Mohammad Tohidfam; Aliakbar Amini
Abstract
IntroductionIranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties have been a source of insecurity in western Iran, undergoing significant changes in their movement over time. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, they exploited the vacuum in central power and the nascent revolution, creating instability and insecurity ...
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IntroductionIranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties have been a source of insecurity in western Iran, undergoing significant changes in their movement over time. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, they exploited the vacuum in central power and the nascent revolution, creating instability and insecurity in Iran’s territories against the central government and people residing in Kurdish regions. Later, as the central government established itself and brought peace and order to the country, these parties sought refuge in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s regime, which was then at war with Iran. After Saddam’s fall, they fled to northern Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan, citing a shared Kurdish identity as the reason. Understanding the roots of their presence in northern Iraq and their impact on Iraqi Kurdistan requires examination of the current power structure in Iraq and sociological analysis of its ethnic and religious dynamics, especially during the democratization process in the post-Saddam era.The overthrow of Saddam Hussein had a profound impact on Iraq’s political structure, resulting in consociational democracy as the replacement. Consociational democracy, as an alternative for majoritarian democracy, relies on the cooperation and agreement of the power elite and parties involved in heterogeneous societies. Given Iraq’s unique cultural, social, and historical factors, it was not feasible for majoritarian democracy to ensure public participation and protect minority rights. Even consociational democracy has its own consequences and effects. In Iraq, consociational democracy led to changes in the power dynamics and positions of the Iraqi Kurds. These changes had implications beyond Iraq, affecting the Kurds of other countries—including Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties—given their shared identity and common historical and cultural background. The main question of the research is, what is the impact of consociational democracy and the institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan on Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties? Literature ReviewUsing analytical and descriptive methods, Pourahmadi et al. (2016) examined the obstacles facing the democratization process in Iraq. The results revealed multiple factors including ongoing insecurity and political instability, low levels of economic and social development indicators, weak civil political culture, and other factors that exacerbate these crises. Nasri and Rezaei (2018) adopted an analytical–descriptive approach to examine the limitations and possibilities of the Iraqi Kurdistan region in achieving independence. The results concluded that currently, due to structural constraints, geopolitical nature, and resistance from neighboring countries, complete independence for the Iraqi Kurdistan region is not feasible. Relying on the content analysis method, Mohammadi (2008) studied ethnic divisions and their role in ethnic divergence within the country. The results indicated that in regions with higher social divides, there is greater ethnic divergence, while areas with intersecting divides experience lesser divergence.Materials and MethodsThe present research used a qualitative method and a descriptive–analytical model to investigate the impact of consociational democracy and institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan on Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties.The research employed Lijphart’s perspective on consociational democracy as a theoretical framework and applied it to the Iraqi context. The main objective of the study was to offer a thorough analysis of how consociationalism and power institutionalization in Iraq have impacted Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties.Lijphart identified four key criteria for consociational democracy: grand coalitions, proportionality, mutual veto rights, and segmental autonomy or federalism. These criteria were incorporated into the government structure of Iraq after 2005. This study analyzed the impact of this democratic process on Iraqi society, including the Kurdish population, and assessed the effects of changes in Iraqi Kurdish society on Iranian Kurdish movements, particularly anti-Revolution movements. To ensure the study’s reliability, the researchers relied on 20 experts, including university professors and specialists in the issues related to Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Kurdish anti-Revolution front. Additionally, the results of in-depth questionnaires were used to formulate and compare the findings.ConclusionIn conclusion, the consociational democracy and institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan have led to a shift in the autonomy strategy and the adoption of federalism among Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties. As a result, their independence and centrifugal tendencies have increased. The discourse of autonomy among these parties has evolved into a discourse of federalism, influenced by Iraqi Kurdish politics. This shift does not diminish the significance or meaning of the process, but rather opens up a more nuanced discussion of separatism, including the right to self-determination and a Kurdish independence referendum within a federal framework. Federalism is a more appealing and populist concept for the anti-Revolution parties. These armed groups have continued to provide military and urban warfare training to the Peshmerga forces in the Kurdistan region and occasionally engage in guerrilla attacks on Iran’s borders. Since the fall of Saddam’s regime, Iraqi Kurdistan has become a base of support for Kurdish anti-Revolution forces, enabling them to create pursue instability in western Iran and pursue their separatist agenda through both soft and hard tactics.Due to the strong sense of Kurdish identity, the Kurdish society and the Kurdish anti-Revolution are inevitably influenced by Iraqi Kurdistan. This issue should be addressed in order to control the peace and security of the borders. In this line, it is suggested that the costs of hosting the Kurdish anti-Revolution in the Iraqi Kurdistan region be increased for both the regional government and the central government of Iraq. This can be achieved by relying on soft power, diplomatic efforts, and negations with the Kurdish and Iraqi authorities, or if necessary, by resorting to military power.
Developments in the Middle East
Abozar Rafiee Ghohsareh
Abstract
Introduction U Islam has always played a significant role in politics and governance in Islamic societies, ...
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Introduction U Islam has always played a significant role in politics and governance in Islamic societies, owing to its political and social nature. This role and significance have led authoritarian regimes in these countries to use Islam for legitimizing their actions in both domestic and foreign policy. The UAE government is a prime example in this respect, as it has manipulated religion and brought it in line with politics. To harmonize religion with its domestic and foreign policy, the UAE government has established its own religious institutions and attracted prominent religious figures, particularly after the so-called Arab Spring. These institutions appear to be independent, but they are fully supported by the UAE government in practice. In addition, prominent Sunni religious figures that support Sufi and non-political Islam are appointed as their leaders.Research Question(s)What were the goals of the UAE government in harmonizing religion with its foreign policy and what measures did it take to achieve these goals?ConclusionThe UAE government has taken extensive measures to deal with Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to prevent the spread of the Arab Spring and its potential dangers. One of the measures in this line is creating religious and intellectual foundations to counter Islamism. In response to the Arab Spring, the UAE government established institutions like Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, the Fatwa Council, Tabah Foundation, and other religious centers. It also attracted renowned scholars with mystical and non-political leanings, such as Sheikh Abdallah bin Bayyah, Sheikh Hamza Yusuf, Habib Ali Zain al-Abidin al-Jifri, and Ali Nayed. These religious centers have significant financial support from the UAE government and are in competition with religious institutions supported by Qatar’s government. They promote an apolitical or neo-traditionalist Islam that opposes revolution, advocates maintaining the status quo, and supports unquestioning obedience to ruling political systems—a tendency which is also called theology of obedience.The UAE government has tried to use religious institutions to legitimize its actions in the field of politics, especially in the field of foreign policy. In this article, three examples of the efforts made by the political system ruling the UAE to "harmonize religion with foreign policy" have been examined: the Arab Spring, cutting off relations with Qatar, and establishing relations with Israel. In all three of these cases, the mentioned religious institutions fully supported the positions and actions of the UAE government and tried to create religious legitimacy for these actions and positions. In fact, the political system ruling the UAE has been very interested in using religious institutions and figures to legitimize its controversial policies inside and outside the country.
