International Relations
Seyed Hamzeh Safavi; Amirhossein Elhami; Ahmad Ramezani
Abstract
The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time ...
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The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time horizon is medium-term (10 years) and data collection is also mixed (documentary-field). First, by document study and interviews, 67 driving forces of China's strategic presence in 8 parameters of PESTEL+DS (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, defense and security) In addition to 7 global - regional trends were identified. Then, with questionnaire the effectiveness, importance and uncertainty of them was determined (according to the Lawshe coefficient, the validity of 55 driving forces - trends was confirmed and 19 driving forces - trends did not achieve the desired validity). in total, 22 driving forces - trends above the significance and uncertainty threshold values were selected. Then, with Friedman's test, 7 driving forces were selected, and their qualitative states were also extracted. Finally, 4 scenarios with zero inconsistency were drafted and edited with the questionnaire of cross influence matrix and scenario wizard software, and their effects on the national security of IRI were evaluated.
Political Sociology
Mohsen Mohammadi Khanghahi; Abbas Keshavarz Shokri; Gafari Zahed
Abstract
IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain ...
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IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain instances, such as in 2009, the protests have posed a threat to the survival and stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, an analysis of the frequency and duration of social protests demonstrates the growth and prevalence of social dissatisfaction within Iranian society.Social dissatisfaction can manifest itself through apathy and non-participation, as seen in the decline in political participation during the Islamic Council and presidential elections in in the recent decade, particularly in 2019 and 2021. A review of relevant research shows a lack of deep insight and comprehensive understanding of social dissatisfaction as a multi-faceted issue in Iran, which can be a major obstacle to insightful policymaking for successful and cost-effective management of social dissatisfaction.The present research aimed to analyze and elucidate the underlying factors that contribute to social dissatisfaction, and subsequently develop strategies for effectively managing and mitigating the issue within Iranian society. The objective can ultimately enhance the efficiency of the decision-making process and policymaking in order to effectively address social dissatisfaction and protests. Accordingly, the main research questions are: What are the causal factors underlying social dissatisfaction in the Islamic Republic of Iran? and what are the potential solutions to solve the issue?Materials and MethodsThe present research employed a mixed methods research design. The documentary analysis method was utilized to examine and analyze various perspectives and approaches, as well as to investigate the evolution of the phenomenon of social dissatisfaction in Iranian society. Moreover, the method of causal layered analysis (CLA) was used to analyze and explain the underlying causes that contribute to social dissatisfaction in Iran.This method incorporates the examination of four distinct layers: the litany, social/systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The litany layer represents the surface level, encompassing the most evident and objective aspects of the future. The social/systemic layer involves exploring the technological, social, economic, historical, political, and environmental causes associated with the subject matter. The discourse layer encompasses efforts to comprehend linguistic, cultural, and social structures that shape and pertain to the future. Lastly, the myth/metaphor layer delves into the investigation and exploration of schemas, mental images, and underlying narratives.The researchers collected the data by administering an open semi-structured questionnaire to a total of 10 experts. The collected data was subjected to review by 5 additional experts, who were asked to confirm the identified causes and related factors with the ultimate aim of ensuring the validity and reliability of the data. Based on the degree of consensus and frequency, the identified causes were categorized into three levels: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. Furthermore, the researchers developed scenarios of social dissatisfaction by sharing the collected data with 5 experts, who were requested to envision future dissatisfaction scenarios in the 2031 horizon across three categories: desirable, possible, and probable. Results and DiscussionAfter conducting a review of relevant literature and collecting insights from 10 experts, the present study examined and analyzed the causes and factors contributing to social dissatisfaction the Islamic Republic in three layers: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. At the systemic level, various factors were identified and discussed, including the prevalence of poverty, increasing discrimination, widening class gap and increasing Gini coefficient, evolving societal lifestyles, widespread feelings of deprivation, unjust distribution of national resources, and unsustainable development, etc.In the discursive layer, various causes and factors were identified and analyzed, including the historical mistrust towards the political sphere, the duality of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Shia culture and thought, the modern thought and worldview, the discourse of transformation, the discourse of Western development, and the alienation of political governance, etc. Moving to the metaphorical/mythical layer, factors such as the portrayal of the government as a bandit in Iranian culture, the usurpation of power by the state, the metaphor of the Alavi government, and historical transformation-seeking were recognized and discussed as influential elements in the development of social dissatisfaction.Moreover, in accordance with expert opinions, three scenarios (desirable, possible, and probable) were formulated and constructed regarding the future of social dissatisfaction in Iran. In the desirable scenario, effective reformist measures and the realization of the right to protest would lead to a reduction in social dissatisfaction, putting protests within a legally recognized framework. In the possible scenario, considering the continuation and exacerbation of underlying causes of dissatisfaction, we would witness the accumulation of social dissatisfaction and the emergence of intermittent episodes of violent social protests. Finally, according to the probable scenario, civil disobedience would arise as a result of the prevailing security-focused approach and the rising costs of engaging in protests.ConclusionSocial dissatisfaction remains a significant issue in Iran, posing considerable challenges to political stability and national security. Effective policymaking and management concerning social dissatisfaction initially requires a comprehensive and accurate understanding of this complex issue. In this line, the present study used the CLA method as an effective approach to examine different causal layers and drivers and their impact on social dissatisfaction. The results indicated that the Islamic Republic of Iran aims to move towards its desired scenario, which involves reducing dissatisfaction and implementing a persuasive and systematic approach to managing social protests. However, given the current circumstances, attaining this scenario proves to be challenging. Instead, the possible scenario entails the continued accumulation of dissatisfaction and ongoing social protests, which will pose a significant challenge to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Protests will be characterized by increased violence, potentially leading the political system to adopt a hard approach in suppressing and managing social unrest. This, in turn, may exacerbate radicalism and further fuel social dissatisfaction. The probable scenario, characterized by intermittent and costly protests as well as civil disobedience, presents an alternative outlook for the future of social dissatisfaction. In this scenario, social dissatisfaction manifests itself through intermittent protests that occur at various intervals and in response to specific events. As social dissatisfaction continues to evolve and persist, some citizens may resort to civil disobedience and divergence from official values and norms.
seyedreza mousavinia
Abstract
The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is ...
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The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is considered as an unfinished project. Future studies do not entail familiar future, unthoughtful future and genus forecasting in the future cycle. At the same time, competition, complexity, contradiction, turmoil, increasing developments, the growing role of science, and uncertainty are among the main drivers of the future, and limiting future research to the study of current trends, events, and perceptions poses a serious risk. Nonetheless, futures studies provide for the states to make desirable future, and therefore is more advanced than explanatory studies. Our main question is: What is the common pattern in the future study of states behavior in foreign policy and what are the restrictions on it? In response to this hypothesis, the pattern in the future studies of states behavior in foreign policy is extent present, and in this model, the role of familiar future, genius forecasting and unthoughtful future in scenarios making are not clear. The pattern of the extent present will be shown in the future with an example of US sanctions against Iran until 2020. The research method is scenario writing based on the extent present pattern.
Mohammad Aryanmanesh; Ahmad Javanshiri; Mohsen Modirshanechi
Abstract
The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the ...
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The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.
reyhane salehabadi; mohsen janparvar; sajed bahrami jaf
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus has had various effects on the geopolitical situation of the world. Therefore, given the negative effects of the coronavirus, planning to deal with its problems, it is necessary to examine the various scenarios of the advancement of the geopolitical structure of the world ...
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The outbreak of coronavirus has had various effects on the geopolitical situation of the world. Therefore, given the negative effects of the coronavirus, planning to deal with its problems, it is necessary to examine the various scenarios of the advancement of the geopolitical structure of the world and strategies related to the various scenarios to be on the agenda. This research is applied in terms of purpose and its method is descriptive-analytical. Data analysis is based on futures research techniques, including interaction analysis. In this study, a total of 40 cases (uncertainties) have been considered for 8 key factors. The research findings show that among the developed scenarios, 11 strong and probable scenarios are the future progress of the geopolitical situation caused by the outbreak of Corona virus. Of 11 strong and probable scenarios, 4 scenarios are unfavorable, 2 scenarios are favorable, and 5 scenarios are static and intermediate. The results show that the probability of occurrence of negative states of the geopolitical structure of the world in the face of the Corona virus is twice as likely as the occurrence of favorable states. Therefore, according to the main goal of geopolitical knowledge, which is to design the best strategy in the relationship between actors, the most appropriate strategies should be considered in relation to the negative consequences of this virus.
