International Relations
Mokhtar Ghasemi; Seied Saeed Mirtorabi Hoseini; Mohammad Vali Modarres; Farideh Mohammad Alipour
Abstract
IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, ...
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IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, the two countries established the highest level of bilateral ties by signing 34 investment agreements valued at around 30 billion dollars, spanning various sectors such as clean energy, hydrogen production, solar energy, information technology, transportation, medical and housing industries, and building materials factories. Furthermore, China’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased from 5 million and 66 thousand barrels per day in 2011 to 10 million and 852 thousand barrels per day in 2020. The figure remained above 10 million barrels during 2022, despite the challenges posed by the COVID–19 pandemic and unfavorable economic conditions. This trend Indicates growing relations between China and Saudi Arabia.China and Saudi Arabia have exchanged a large share of capital in the energy sector. The Saudi active presence in the Chinese oil market has positioned it as China’s largest trade partner in the West Asia and African region. The bilateral investment volume between the two countries stands at approximately 73 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia’s extensive investments aimed at controlling China’s oil import network, refineries, and petrochemical industry, along with its involvement in the plan to double China’s strategic oil reserve, underscore the importance of maintaining China’s energy market for Saudi Arabia. Consequently, given China’s status as the largest energy consumer and Saudi Arabia’s position as the largest oil exporter, both countries possess the requisite capacity to foster cooperation in this field.In addition, Vision 2030 and the One Belt One Road Initiative are strategic factors facilitating the expansion of China–Saudi Arabia relations. In this regard, the two countries have signed comprehensive strategic cooperation agreements, leading to the establishment of the High-Level Joint Committee. During the committee’s second meeting in Riyadh in August 2017, contracts valued at 70 billion dollars were signed. Moreover, an important milestone was reached by signing a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the establishment of a joint investment fund worth 20 billion dollars. Furthermore, Industrial Development Fund, China’s Silk Road Fund, and Everbright Bank were established. These agreements, memoranda, and funds intend to expedite the development of China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Although China is trying to maximize its energy security by distributing its oil imports among different countries (e.g., the US), Saudi Arabia’s consistent share of approximately 20% in recent years remains of utmost significance.Literature ReviewSeveral studies have examined the topics of US energy policy and the development of China–Saudi Arabia relations. However, few works have linked these two phenomena in an analytical manner. The novelty of this article lies in its attempt to bridge this gap and provide an analysis by exploring the interplay between these two issues.Materials and MethodsThis research adopted a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data. Documents and library resources were used to collect the data. Relying on an examination of research, analytical and statistical texts, the study focused on indexing and defining variables and their influential factors in a bid to conduct an analytical and inferential exploration to elucidate the trends and interrelationships between the independent and dependent variables.ConclusionThe US–Saudi oil relations have witnessed unparalleled growth and encompassed various economic, political, and security sectors in recent decades. Furthermore, to ensure its own growth and development, it is imperative for China to maintain stability and security in the energy sector. This objective can be achieved through effective management of competition and, in certain instances, cooperation with the United States. The ongoing trend of expanding relations between China and Saudi Arabia in the energy sector is unprecedented, solidifying China’s position as a significant competitor to the United States. The growing China–Saudi Arabia relations are driven by the mutual needs in the energy sector and strategic development plans. Yet the present research aimed to analyze China–Saudi Arabia relations with an eye to the US energy policy, relying a neo-mercantilist approach. Consequently, the primary question addressed in this article is: how has the US energy policy during 2011–2022 influenced the dynamics of China–Saudi Arabia relationship. The study was based on the hypothesis that the US energy policy during 2011–2022, characterized by increased oil and shale gas production and a reinforced neo-mercantilist approach in the energy sector, played a crucial role in fostering closer ties between China and Saudi Arabia, primarily in the oil sector, and supported their efforts to broaden mutual cooperation across other fields. The hypothesis was tested through empirical and explanatory methods. The research findings suggest that China–Saudi Arabia cooperation is expected to expand further in the future, while taking into account the sensitivities associated with these relations from the perspective of the United States.
International Relations
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Saeed Shokoohi
Abstract
Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more ...
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Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more important, than the events themselves. Regardless of the actual situation and reality, decision-makers act based on their perception of what is happening. This underscores the crucial role that cognitive and mental factors play in shaping the behavior of actors. When analyzing international political issues, it is necessary to distinguish between the operational milieu and psychological milieu. This is especially important when major or acute issues of the international system are at play, and emotions, nationalism, or ideology come into play. Currently, during Joe Biden’s presidency, the relationship between China and the US is experiencing one of its worst periods, and rhetorical tensions between the two countries have escalated. In this context, the possibility of non-emotional dialogues and understanding significantly has decreased. Instead, both sides are arranging their policies and reactions based on their perceptions of each other’s intentions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the issue of perceptions and misperceptions between these two rival countries.Research QuestionsThis article aimed to analyze how Chinese elites perceive the intentions and policies of American officials towards Beijing. Understanding the perceptions of Chinese elites can shed light on their behavior and reactions to events in the international system for outside observers. For the purposes of this research, Chinese elites refer to influential groups in policymaking and public opinion, including policymakers, university professors, researchers, journalists, and businessmen. Specifically, this study explored Chinese elites’ perceptions of US intentions, Washington’s policies towards Taiwan and India, the rivalry between the two countries, and Beijing’s future role in the international order.Literature ReviewDespite the critical importance of understanding China’s perceptions and misperceptions of US policies and goals, there has been limited research conducted on the topic. Boullenois et al. (2018) published a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, which studied the three distinct perceptions of Trump held by Chinese elites. Kennedy (2007) explored the US policies towards Taiwan and the perceptions of those policies among Chinese elites, while Sinkkonen and Elovainio (2020) surveyed the views of Chinese students and the educated class on the threats posed by America and Japan. Their findings indicated that students who consumed Chinese media for extended periods were more likely to be sympathetic to the media’s narrative of the enmity of Japan and America. In 2015, the Carnegie Institute published an analytical report titled “Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other” (Johnston & Shen, 2015), which analyzed Chinese people’s attitudes towards Americans and themselves, China’s role in international leadership, and the role of American parties in Chinese politics. Similar to the previous studies, the present research aimed to examine Chinese elites’ perceptions of the US policies and intentions and their impact on Beijing’s foreign policy. However, this study innovatively relied on authentic surveys and Chinese sources to extract and analyze the Chinese elites’ views about the US.MethodologyThis research employed the method of directed qualitative content analysis to extract and analyze Chinese elites’ perceptions of US policies and intentions towards Beijing. Directed qualitative content analysis is a deductive approach that begins by determining the variables and key concepts of the research based on a theoretical framework and existing literature. Then, the researcher collects, codes, and analyzes data related to these variables and concepts. In this study, the data related to the variables specified in the conceptual framework was collected from the Chinese elites’ views and interviews, as well as the review of the existing literature in the field. The collected date was then coded, decoded, and analyzed within the conceptual framework. Finally, the study went on to examine the effects of those perceptions on China–US relations. The variables were also categorized based on the items specified in the conceptual framework.ResultsThe research findings indicate that Chinese elites perceive the US as follows: 1) China’s main enemy, 2) China’s identity enemy, 3) China’s main rival in international leadership, 4) China’s main economic and technological competitor, and 5) the challenger to China’s regional power. According to the results, younger elites are less pessimistic than their older counterparts, while businessmen hold a more pessimistic outlook than political or academic elites. Discussion A crucial element in China–US relations is the perception that the window of strategic opportunity is closing. According to the analysis, Chinese decision-makers view the favorable foreign environment as a strategic opportunity for China’s growth. The US was preoccupied with issues in other regions and did not actively seek to curb China, which created a strategic opportunity for China. However, many Chinese strategists now believe that this strategic opportunity is diminishing, and China will face increased pressure going forward. This shift in the strategic environment is likely to alter Beijing’s calculations and approach. These factors have contributed to China’s more assertive and confrontational foreign policy towards the US inrecent years, while attempting to manage the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.ConclusionThe rigorous economic policies imposed by the US on China have led many Chinese experts to perceive that America is in decline while China is on the rise, and this trend cannot be halted in the long term. Additionally, China’s skepticism towards international norms and institutions dominated by the West, particularly the US, has grown. When these norms and institutions impinge on China’s critical interests, Beijing’s distrust and confrontational stance intensify.By observing the US policies, China concludes that the US easily uses international norms and institutions to advance its own interests and resorts to double standards. Deep pessimism towards international norms lies in the realistic view among many Chinese strategists that the international system is ultimately an anarchic system in which the most powerful actors determine the rules. What is important is the relative power of the country and its material capacities.Finally, some US policies have made Chinese elites worry that America may create more problems for China. For example, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions concerning climatic changes, free trade, and arms control has concerned China. Moreover, according to the Chinese, America ignores the trade problems of other countries and blames others for its own problems. Therefore, China considers America a troublesome country. This situation will not only reduce the economicinterdependence between the two countries in the long term, but also intensify the possibility of conflict between the two.
International Relations
hossein delavar; Rashid Recabian
Abstract
Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic ...
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Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic and global spheres to respond to the emerging requirements. This has led scholars to debate the consequences of this balancing model for the decision-making circles of the world states, especially for the US and the international order.Significance and ObjectivesThe present article intended to analyze the prospect of change in the contemporary international order (structural order) by examining whether new poles are emerging in the current international order or not.The Main Question What are the consequences and challenges of China’s behavioral pattern for the United States and the structural international order?Research Hypothesis This research is based on the hypothesis that China’s behavioral pattern presents complex challenges to the US general policy towards China. This points to the uncertainties in predicting the consequences of China’s rise, in which policymakers face challenges in choosing between containment or engagement policy. China’s behavioral pattern is also seen as a reason for changing the structure of the international system and shaping the China–US bipolar order. In this respect, the following two points were suggested and discussed. First, the power gap between China and the United States will become almost equal, resulting in a dual superpower scenario where the United States will lose its superiority over China. Second, the strategic competition between China and the US will be very different from the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. China and the US will continue to cooperate in various fields (e.g., economy), while they may have conflicts in political and military domains.Research Method The present research used the historical research method with a descriptive–analytical and explanatory approach.Theoretical Framework This study used defensive structural realism as its theoretical framework in order to analyze the systemic characteristics of the international order, including the distribution and increase of power, and explain their effects on the behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is considered as the most important variable in the paradigm of structural realism.Kenneth Waltz’s theory of international politics offers a clear example of defensive structural realism. The present article contends that Waltz’s perspective should be taken seriously not only because it is the most accurate or realistic theory, but because it provides useful categories for comprehending reality. For instance, his concept of polarity determination helps to shape the behavioral priorities of countries and structural order of power distribution among units, which can be measured and typically changes in response to shifts in power among major states. Additionally, his focus on some kind of cooperation in the discussion on balance of power is also a valuable analytical category.Article Text Due to the post-Cold War international conditions, China has adopted a macro model of balancing, at domestic and global levels, in its strategic relationships with the US. Domestically, China has focused on building up its internal capabilities, while on the global stage it has pursued soft balancing. China’s balancing strategy in the unipolar world order is a reasonable and pragmatic response to its interests, capabilities, and strategic environment. Like any other government, China seeks to maximize its benefits and minimize losses in the field of foreign relations. Showing a keen awareness of the evolving international system, China has adeptly seized opportunities and confronted challenges. However, this behavioral pattern has important consequences and challenges for the international order, particularly for the US as the dominant pole.The balancing strategy pursued by China has generated complex conditions for decision-makers across the international system, particularly in the US as the superpower. Its most significant impact has been on the mentality of elites and their interpretation of the new realities, which has prompted a need to reassess American foreign policy.China’s behavioral pattern has enabled it to capitalize on broad opportunities and emerge as a decisive player in international politics, with its ongoing quest for power likely to have significant implications for the future of international politics. However, this development is closely tied to America’s position as the dominant pole of the international order, making the strategic relations between the two countries increasingly intertwined. As a result, managing these relations has become the most pressing issue in international politics, with stability and crisis in the global order at stake. As such, analyzing the pattern underlying China’s behavior and its relations with the US is critical for understanding the changing international order and its future trajectory.ConclusionChina is neither an ally nor a partner of the US and does not feel obligated to align its policies with those of America. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not adopt an explicitly adversarial stance towards the US. This has created challenges and consequences for the overall US policy towards China, and introduced uncertainties that pose significant challenges for policymakers in choosing between a policy of containment or engagement. An examination of the challenges posed by China’s behavioral pattern suggests that a combination of containment and engagement policies is more effective in serving American interests when dealing with China. While addressing the concerns of proponents of containment, the hybrid policy also attempts to avoid the pitfalls of mutual hostility, which is a major concern of supporters of engagement. This policy reflects the uncertainty in Washington about China’s future goals and capabilities. However, if China were to pursue regional hegemony or launch an attack on Taiwan, the hybrid policy could shift towards containment. Conversely, if China were to democratize and cooperate, this containment-plus-engagement policy could be replaced by a more cooperative relationship between the two countries.
Sajad Bahrami Moghadam
Abstract
This paper, in an explanatory method and from the perspective of the balance-of-interest theory, shows that US-Saudi relations are based on the complex pattern of cooperation while conflicts of interest in different geopolitical contexts, and conflict of interest impedes the promotion of cooperation ...
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This paper, in an explanatory method and from the perspective of the balance-of-interest theory, shows that US-Saudi relations are based on the complex pattern of cooperation while conflicts of interest in different geopolitical contexts, and conflict of interest impedes the promotion of cooperation between the two governments to a strategic alliance and at the same time benefits The common cause has been the collapse of relations between the two governments, so issues such as arms agreements or different positions of the two governments in the Middle East crisis do not lead to a fundamental change in their relations. The findings also show that the formation and continuity of the two governments' ties has security implications, and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken advantage of American power to counter its regional rivals, and the fears of Iran, especially over the last decade, have been a powerful impetus to policies Saudi Arabia's Middle East has been feared that its severity is rooted in Saudi Arabian supremacy and vulnerabilities towards Iran, in which the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has found Iran's defensive influence in the Middle East with aggressive intent with its predecessors. Accordingly, the author pointed out at the end of the necessity of a regional dialogue forum in the Persian Gulf region with a view to reducing the submissions of the behavior and intentions of the neighbors
