Reza Khalili; Ghadir Nasri; Salman Dastafshan
Abstract
In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the ...
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In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the study consists the citizens of southern regions of Kerman province. The sample size is 384 people using the Cochran formula and the sampling method is randomized population size. The research data are analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics based on SPSS statistical software. The research hypothesis is that synchronization and synergy of the effects of individual, national and transnational factors and bases have increased the tendency to Takfiri groups in the south of Kerman. The findings of the research show that, while there is difference between the individual, national and transnational level factors and bases, there is a positive and significant relationship between those and tendency to Takfiri groups in south of Kerman. The results of regression analysis show that the national level factors have the most significant effect on the tendency to Takfiri groups, and the transnational and individual level factors and bases are in the next category.
Abstract
The emergence of Salafi Takfiri groups as unofficial actors has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the West Asian region and its forms of conflict. Many questions and ambiguities surrounding the prospects of the West Asia region in the light of the existence of terrorist Takfiri groups ...
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The emergence of Salafi Takfiri groups as unofficial actors has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the West Asian region and its forms of conflict. Many questions and ambiguities surrounding the prospects of the West Asia region in the light of the existence of terrorist Takfiri groups and the future of the conflicts and crises of the region can take place at the expense of these groups from the stage of equations. In the present study, we have used scenarios (desirable, probable, and possible) using future research techniques, including the process of research (quality analysis of the process), and the analysis of the propulsion, as forces of change and through the interaction of trends and drivers. The extracted scenarios are as follows: a) Desirable scenarios: 1. The first favorable scenario: the total destruction of takfiri groups and the formation of democratic regimes in conflict-stricken countries based on the division of power model; 2. The second best scenario: the temporary repression of Takfiri groups and the rule of the republican rule model (Presidential Bashar al-Assad's presence); (b) Possible scenarios: 1. Possible scenario: Takfiri withdrawal from the formation of a government; but the internal division of power among ethnic groups and religions; 2. The probable scenario II: the disintegration of Syria; Iraq, Libya and other countries involved in the crisis and the formation of the game New expensive in the field of regional equilibrium (Kurdish state formation in the region); (c) Possible scenario: advancing Takfiri forces claiming the Islamic state and conquering more territories.
Ali Reza Samiei Esfahani; Mohsen Shfiei Seif Abadi
Volume 4, Issue 14 , December 2015, , Pages 199-227
Abstract
The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) ...
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The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) in the Middle East? It seems that five scenarios can be anticipated inthree categories: A) Favorable scenario: 1) the final destruction of TakfirijihadiIslamists and democratically distribution of power under theceremonial leadership of Bashar al-Assad 2) suppression of takfiri groupsand ruling of the Islamic Republic, instead of the Arabic Republic of Syriaand Iraq. B) Probable scenario: 1) the elimination of Da’ash anddistribution of power between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnite in Syria 2)Breakup of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan's independence. C) Possible scenarios:1) capturing Baghdad and Beirut government and establishing thegovernment known as the Islamic regime by takfiri-jihadi groups. In order tokeep their own entities, the political systems of Syria and Iraq should carryout reforms mainly in the political, economic and social realms
