Developments in the Islamic world
Abdollah Sohrabi; Mohammad Bagher Khoramshad
Abstract
IntroductionThe Palestine issue has held a central position in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic of Iran has pursued a policy of non-alignment and protection of Muslims, marked by the non-recognition of the Israeli regime and the protection ...
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IntroductionThe Palestine issue has held a central position in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic of Iran has pursued a policy of non-alignment and protection of Muslims, marked by the non-recognition of the Israeli regime and the protection of Palestinian rights. This article aimed to elucidate the foreign policy perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Palestine issue, with a primary focus on formulating possible, likely, and desirable scenarios for Iran’s future foreign policy on this matter.Materials and MethodsAs an exploratory endeavor, the present research employed a qualitative research method, which consisted of two stages: an initial exploratory study involving extensive reading and subsequent interviews. The research did not involve a statistical population; instead, a community of experts comprising 21 individuals was selected through the snowball sampling method.Results and DiscussionThe interviews were conducted until reaching the saturation stage. Then, nine themes were identified through thematic analysis. The identified themes encompassed the main statements derived from the interviews. They are as follows:Prioritizing the Palestine issue and emphasizing its significance in Iran’s constitution, as well as the necessity of supporting anti-Israeli resistance according to Imam Khomeini’s perspective, as national religious duties and fundamental pillars of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran;Supporting the resistance front, fostering unity, aligning goals among resistance groups against Israeli dominance, and establishing strong ties with countries that maintain anti-Israel policies;The lack of public incentive to support Palestine attributed to distrust in domestic policymakers, divisions among Muslims, and lack of consensus and a single voice on the part of the regional superpower concerning the Palestinian cause;Potential compromises involving recognition of the Palestinian government, alongside the importance of Islamic unity and awakening;Supporting Palestine as a national project, requiring a unified stance and support from all branches of government, including political, economic, social, military, and cultural sectors, as well as academic and research institutions;Supporting the resistance front and pursuing common goals against Israeli monopolization, while fostering strong relationships with the countries opposing Israel;Advocating for international laws pertaining to Palestine, planning and overseeing referendums, and championing the right to self-determination;Highlighting Israeli vulnerabilities, dismantling the perception of Israeli invincibility, exposing the true nature of Israel, and refusing to recognize it;Restoring the lost rights of Palestinians and reclaiming control over their territories;Achieving absolute dominance in the Middle East and gaining control over its financial and economic resources as Israel’s main objective, in addition to its strategic positioning. ConclusionIn conclusion, the following strategies are recommended for Iran’s foreign policy on Palestine. First, the regional crisis indicates that the Middle East experiences the highest political and security unrest compared to other regions. This is primarily due to the conflicting security policies pursued by actors with different identities. The United States has focused its national security strategies on the Middle East. Iran should aim to create a regional and Islamic identity among the actors in order to foster constructive interaction. Each country in the Middle East has its own identity incentive to play its political role. Therefore, any regional innovations by Iran in addressing the Palestinian conflict and promoting Middle East peace should take into account making an identity model. The emergence of Islamic groups has transformed the nature of conflicts in the region, highlighting the influence of identity and ideological trends. These factors have also imposed limitations on the United States and Israel.Second, the redress of Palestinian rights is the main issue in the Middle East. Iran should play a role in establishing a strong, integrated government in Palestine as a first step towards finding an Islamic identity and reducing ongoing bloodshed in the region. Other countries must recognize the Palestinian government. Third, the increasing conflicts in Palestine keep the peace proposal to come into effect and help stablish two governments in this region. Iran’s foreign policy goal on Palestine should be to support the idea of establishing a unified Palestinian government based on the majority demands. Organized support for Palestinian fighters is necessary under these circumstances. However, if Palestinian groups reject Iran’s policy, a new wave of anti-violence policies will emerge in the region. Therefore, revolutionary movements in Palestine should be recognized internationally, especially by the Islamic world. This recognition will help protect the revolutionary identity and resistance in Palestine by preventing Israel from repressing them. Finally, Iran’s foreign policy towards Palestine relies on the support of its own people. It is crucial for Iran to maintain and protect this public support at any cost. While the current support is largely based on religious beliefs, the government should also clarify other aspects of its policy to the people. Addressing any questions or concerns that arise will help reinforce Iran’s policy on supporting the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Iran’s foreign policy on Palestine should be backed by comprehensive national support, and any compromise in this regard is tantamount to compromising Iran’s Islamic and revolutionary identity.
Mohammad Reza Amiri fahlyiani; Taha Abin; Nazanin zahra Setoudeh
Abstract
Cities are a source of creativity and technology and engines for economic growth. cities are also a source of poverty, inequality and environmental health risks. In this study, the coronavirus environmental crisis that humanity is currently suffering from and challenging, in terms of power relations, ...
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Cities are a source of creativity and technology and engines for economic growth. cities are also a source of poverty, inequality and environmental health risks. In this study, the coronavirus environmental crisis that humanity is currently suffering from and challenging, in terms of power relations, intervention, appropriation in the urban environment that is the result of political ecology and its effects on urban space with the structural analysis approach is examined. The present study, in terms of applied purpose, has been carried out in terms of survey method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. In this study, the drivers of the impact of political ecology through text-mining in valid domestic and foreign documents and the opinion of a group of experts have been investigated. by holding a joint Delphi meeting of experts, the impact of the identified propulsions on each other has been weighed and discussed. Then the position of each propellant was checked through "Mikomak" software. The results indicate that the drivers of income deficit, income inequality, marginalization and social inequality, have been identified as key effective forces of political ecology by experts that are effective in the future spread of infectious diseases in the city.
seyedreza mousavinia
Abstract
The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is ...
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The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is considered as an unfinished project. Future studies do not entail familiar future, unthoughtful future and genus forecasting in the future cycle. At the same time, competition, complexity, contradiction, turmoil, increasing developments, the growing role of science, and uncertainty are among the main drivers of the future, and limiting future research to the study of current trends, events, and perceptions poses a serious risk. Nonetheless, futures studies provide for the states to make desirable future, and therefore is more advanced than explanatory studies. Our main question is: What is the common pattern in the future study of states behavior in foreign policy and what are the restrictions on it? In response to this hypothesis, the pattern in the future studies of states behavior in foreign policy is extent present, and in this model, the role of familiar future, genius forecasting and unthoughtful future in scenarios making are not clear. The pattern of the extent present will be shown in the future with an example of US sanctions against Iran until 2020. The research method is scenario writing based on the extent present pattern.
Vahid RanjbarHeydari; Arsalan Ghorbani; Reza Simbar; Ebrahim Hajiani
Abstract
The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 ...
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The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 horizons. The present study uses 5methods of futuristic research, namely, cross-impact analysis, 5 key factors; the attitude of the rulers of Iran and the Cooperation Council countries towards each other; increasing the arms and military rivalry of the member states of the Council and Iran with the aim of hegemony in The region, fears of the Shiite Crescent Celestial Theory and the Centenary Revolutionary Guards have been identified with the aim of confronting Iran and identity differences, the future of Syria, Iraq, Yemen on the relationship between Iran and the future of Iran's nuclear program. These proxies were used as the underlying factors in the Scenarios program. Finally, with multiple analyzes, including a panel of experts, out of 128 possible scenarios, 4 possible scenarios were identified: war boats, warships, passenger ships, and shipwreck. Eventually, the scenario of Warship identified as a probable scenario with a high probability of introducing the passenger ship's scenario as a preferred and desirable scenario for Iran.
mojtaba shariati; Hosein Salimi
Abstract
The Middle East is changing. More actors and factors also influenced its changes, which has added to the complexity of the issues.These undetermined and vague conditions have led to different scenarios, which could figure out the future of the Islamic countries and the Middle East in general. So in this ...
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The Middle East is changing. More actors and factors also influenced its changes, which has added to the complexity of the issues.These undetermined and vague conditions have led to different scenarios, which could figure out the future of the Islamic countries and the Middle East in general. So in this article, this main question is answered, future trends of democracy in the Middle East by 2025, will have what effects on the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran?.In response to the main question, by reviewing the future study of future trends of democracy in the Middle East, a questionnaire was designed within the framework of the theory of constructivism and Delphi method, and was distributed among of experts and specialists. Then, by guiding with leadership team, the Delphi questionnaire data were analyzed. Then the results and opinions of the experts and respondents to the questions were analyzed qualitatively and four main scenarios were obtained which includes the rule of religious democracy, secularism, Salafism and the military, autocratic monarchy and ethnic governments.Finally, the most favorable scenario and the most threatening scenario for the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran were detected and solutions presented.
Ali Reza Samiei Esfahani; Mohsen Shfiei Seif Abadi
Volume 4, Issue 14 , December 2015, , Pages 199-227
Abstract
The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) ...
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The following article is orchestrated on the basis of scenario-basedprocessing as one of the main methods of future study. It tries to answer thismain question that “what would be the probable direction of the Salafijihadist groups such as Al-Nusra Front and Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISSI) in the Middle East? It seems that five scenarios can be anticipated inthree categories: A) Favorable scenario: 1) the final destruction of TakfirijihadiIslamists and democratically distribution of power under theceremonial leadership of Bashar al-Assad 2) suppression of takfiri groupsand ruling of the Islamic Republic, instead of the Arabic Republic of Syriaand Iraq. B) Probable scenario: 1) the elimination of Da’ash anddistribution of power between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnite in Syria 2)Breakup of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan's independence. C) Possible scenarios:1) capturing Baghdad and Beirut government and establishing thegovernment known as the Islamic regime by takfiri-jihadi groups. In order tokeep their own entities, the political systems of Syria and Iraq should carryout reforms mainly in the political, economic and social realms
