Developments in the Middle East
farshid farhadi; Afshin Mottaghi
Abstract
Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical ...
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Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical population is composed of two main categories: documents and elites. The latter is also divided into academic and executive groups. Data collection is also carried out using the library study and field survey methods. The research findings yielded 2 possible scenarios of Escape from Hobbesian and Again the spiral of fear. The general analysis of the scenarios suggests that new season will begin in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A situation whose important feature will be to reduce the intensity of tension and conflict between the two countries in the horizon of 2030. Of course, if the drivers of chaos, such as the negative role of America and Israel, do not prevail.
International Relations
Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Abstract
During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two ...
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During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two countries. Two structural components in the foreign policy of the two countries have affected the dynamics of bilateral relations. First, the JCPOA, in which Russia played an important role. The second component was the Ukraine crisis in 2022, and Iran’s role has been noticed by analysts. The development model of Iran-Russia relations since 2015 is influenced by these two components. In this article, we seek to answer the main question and problem, which structural components have affected the development model of relations between Iran and Russia in this period? Our primary hypothesis to answer the main issue of the article is the JCPOA as a structural factor affecting Iran's foreign policy and the Ukraine war 2022 as a structural factor affecting Russia's foreign policy. The type of encounter of two countries with the structural factors affecting the other, has led to proliferation of these relations
Political Sociology
Jalil Dara; Javad Alaei Avargani
Abstract
IntroductionDistribution and redistribution, as one of the specialized functions within the political system, aims to address inequalities and reduce socio-economic disparities. It holds a pivotal role in the systemic approach, as the success or failure of these efforts can significantly influence the ...
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IntroductionDistribution and redistribution, as one of the specialized functions within the political system, aims to address inequalities and reduce socio-economic disparities. It holds a pivotal role in the systemic approach, as the success or failure of these efforts can significantly influence the level of support for the political system. Following the Revolution, the Islamic Republic embarked on a mission to narrow the class gap across various strata of society by adopting distribution and redistribution policies with the ultimate aim of realizing justice. The Iranian political system thus adopted a proactive stance and function regarding distribution and redistribution, commencing with land reforms at the onset of the Islamic Revolution and progressing through various policy initiatives over the span of four decades. While the impact of the distribution and redistribution policies can be objectively assessed through statistical data and indicators, it is equally crucial to take into account people’s subjective perceptions of such policies. This subjective perception often carries substantial weight, sometimes even outweighing the tangible outcomes of policies, significantly influencing the political behavior of individuals within society. In this respect, the present research tried to address the degree of success of the post-Revolution distribution and redistribution policies, and their impact on people’s political action.Literature ReviewMehrgan and Ezzati (2008) delved into the impact of various factors, including taxes, per capita income, literacy levels, unemployment, and inflation rates, on citizens’ political participation. The findings revealed that inflation and unemployment significantly reduced electoral participation in the provinces. Conversely, higher levels of literacy and per capita income were associated with increased political engagement of citizens. Saboktakin et al. (2015) concluded that a substantial 99% correlation exists between social and political participation, with a 53% correlation observed for political satisfaction and an 18% correlation for social satisfaction. Furthermore, there is a significant relationship between the socio-economic base and political participation. The results of the regression analysis indicated that among these three variables, political satisfaction had the most significant impact on participation, while social satisfaction had the least impact on social and political participation. Analyzing the economic redistribution policies, Hatami (2012) demonstrated that during the 9th and 10th governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran, there existed a set of peripheral economic policies, such as Justice Shares (Saham-e Edalat), Mehr Housing Plan, and targeted subsidies. These policies interacted with the broader social and electoral context, leading to a complex reciprocal relationship. As a result, Hatami identified two distinct syndromes in the redistribution policies of the governments. The first syndrome pertained to how the peripheral policies of the government exacerbated the conflict between the center and periphery and turned invisible economic conflicts into socially determining issues. The second syndrome involved the interplay between class aspects of the government and its political ramifications. Instead of the government acting as a party to these conflicts and as an agent in class conflicts, it should play the role of a neutral arbitrator and mediator in resolving class conflicts. This suggests that the government should work towards enhancing its public image and role in this regard.Materials and MethodsThe present research adopted a descriptive–analytical approach and a documentary method. The study aimed to propose a theoretical framework by adapting the systems theories of Almond and Powell as well as Robert Merton’s theory.ConclusionBoth statistical data and public perception of policy outcomes showed that these policies and institutions exhibited relative inefficiency during the period from 2011 to 2020, leading to exacerbating the existing inequalities and fostering a perception of injustice. Additionally, people’s assessment of the economic situation underscores the inefficiency of such policies, particularly evident in the feedback loop within the system. It is worth noting that a key indicator of support for a political system, particularly in electoral systems, is the level of political participation. An increase in political participation signifies the effective functioning of the political system, while a decline serves as a warning to the political system, indicating diminishing support. A comparative analysis of the outcomes of distribution and redistribution policies, coupled with the levels of political apathy and the participation rate from 2011 to 2020, clearly revealed a significant connection between the effectiveness of resource (re)distribution and the electoral participation rate as an indicator of the level of support for the political system. The inefficiency of these policies and institutions has grown increasingly conspicuous, exacerbating economic and social inequalities and fostering a prevailing sense of political apathy and hopelessness among the citizens. This factor can be considered one of the root causes contributing to the declining participation rates in both presidential and parliamentary elections.
International Relations
Arslan Ghorbani; Hadi Torki; Saeed Mirtorabi; Gholamreza Karimi
Abstract
Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound ...
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Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound understanding of the actions and reactions of countries’ foreign policies in the international system. In this line, the present study aimed to develop a model to gain a better understanding of Iran–China relations. The research sought a clearer insight into Iran–China comprehensive strategic partnership by employing a set of theories at the levels of international system, foreign policy, and domestic scene of policy formulation and decision-making. At the level of international system, it is necessary to consider the convergence between Iran and China in the context of US-led Western hegemony and counter-hegemony. At the level of foreign policy, it is crucial to consider cognitive approaches in foreign policy analysis. At the domestic level, one must take into account Iran’s prevailing economic circumstances and its challenges stemming from the US- imposed sanctions, which have prompted the Look to the East policy. China also seeks to export the surplus of its production and advance the Chinese model through partnerships. Delving into these issues, the present article investigated both theoretical considerations as well as various dimensions of Iran–China relations in practice.Literature ReviewRekabian et al. (2021) assert that Iran and China have actively pursued closer cooperation in regional and international organizations as a countermeasure against Western interventions. Shafiei (2022) posits that China’s comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran is primarily motivated by its own strategic objectives, while Iran engages extensively with China out of its specific needs and requirements. Corneliussen (2020) suggests that the Iran–China agreement has the potential to reshape the strategic and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Figueroa (2022) highlights that Western sanctions stand as the primary hurdle to the realization of the 25-Year Iran–China Agreement and the enhancement of economic ties between the two countries. Scita (2022) argues that Washington is actively attempting to manage the contradictions arising from these roles through continuous mediation efforts. According to Loft et al. (2022), China is actively pursuing control over critical technological and industrial sectors, essential infrastructure, strategic resources, and supply chains.Materials and Methods The present study used a descriptive method to offer an analysis of Iran–China partnership.Results and Discussion The approach taken by Iran and China in establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership can be seen as a form of convergence between the two countries. China, in particular, seeks to advance its own strategic goals through these partnerships. It is also important to recognize that there are shared identity constructs between Iran and China, which can be characterized as the power of ideas evolving within the realist framework in the international system. In addition, this partnership has emerged from a nuanced understanding and recognition of the geopolitical landscape, especially within the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is pursuing its first significant international partnership and agreement in the last century. Beyond addressing domestic needs and fulfilling economic, political, and military requirements, the Iran–China agreement is rooted in a strategic grasp of counter-hegemony as a pivotal factor in forging such agreements.ConclusionTo gain a deeper insight into the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, it is essential to explore various aspects and variables, ranging from domestic factors to the perceptions of their leaders, decision-makers, and policymakers, and to the dynamics of the international system. Comprehending and recognizing the positions held by the leaders of both nations within the international arena can facilitate the identification of national interests, commonalities, differences, and potential conflicts. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China requires an analysis of both domestic and foreign factors and variables. This approach offers valuable insights into the rationale and strategies that underlie the Iran-China partnership. The partnership is shaped not only by domestic and international circumstances but also by the perceptions of decision-makers and authorities in each country. Moreover, the resistance to a third party, such as the US, can exert a significant influence. All of these factors lead to a realist perspective in the international arena, which can contribute to more informed and effective decision-making processes for both countries involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership.
Political Sociology
Mohsen Mohammadi Khanghahi; Abbas Keshavarz Shokri; Gafari Zahed
Abstract
IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain ...
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IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain instances, such as in 2009, the protests have posed a threat to the survival and stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, an analysis of the frequency and duration of social protests demonstrates the growth and prevalence of social dissatisfaction within Iranian society.Social dissatisfaction can manifest itself through apathy and non-participation, as seen in the decline in political participation during the Islamic Council and presidential elections in in the recent decade, particularly in 2019 and 2021. A review of relevant research shows a lack of deep insight and comprehensive understanding of social dissatisfaction as a multi-faceted issue in Iran, which can be a major obstacle to insightful policymaking for successful and cost-effective management of social dissatisfaction.The present research aimed to analyze and elucidate the underlying factors that contribute to social dissatisfaction, and subsequently develop strategies for effectively managing and mitigating the issue within Iranian society. The objective can ultimately enhance the efficiency of the decision-making process and policymaking in order to effectively address social dissatisfaction and protests. Accordingly, the main research questions are: What are the causal factors underlying social dissatisfaction in the Islamic Republic of Iran? and what are the potential solutions to solve the issue?Materials and MethodsThe present research employed a mixed methods research design. The documentary analysis method was utilized to examine and analyze various perspectives and approaches, as well as to investigate the evolution of the phenomenon of social dissatisfaction in Iranian society. Moreover, the method of causal layered analysis (CLA) was used to analyze and explain the underlying causes that contribute to social dissatisfaction in Iran.This method incorporates the examination of four distinct layers: the litany, social/systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The litany layer represents the surface level, encompassing the most evident and objective aspects of the future. The social/systemic layer involves exploring the technological, social, economic, historical, political, and environmental causes associated with the subject matter. The discourse layer encompasses efforts to comprehend linguistic, cultural, and social structures that shape and pertain to the future. Lastly, the myth/metaphor layer delves into the investigation and exploration of schemas, mental images, and underlying narratives.The researchers collected the data by administering an open semi-structured questionnaire to a total of 10 experts. The collected data was subjected to review by 5 additional experts, who were asked to confirm the identified causes and related factors with the ultimate aim of ensuring the validity and reliability of the data. Based on the degree of consensus and frequency, the identified causes were categorized into three levels: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. Furthermore, the researchers developed scenarios of social dissatisfaction by sharing the collected data with 5 experts, who were requested to envision future dissatisfaction scenarios in the 2031 horizon across three categories: desirable, possible, and probable. Results and DiscussionAfter conducting a review of relevant literature and collecting insights from 10 experts, the present study examined and analyzed the causes and factors contributing to social dissatisfaction the Islamic Republic in three layers: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. At the systemic level, various factors were identified and discussed, including the prevalence of poverty, increasing discrimination, widening class gap and increasing Gini coefficient, evolving societal lifestyles, widespread feelings of deprivation, unjust distribution of national resources, and unsustainable development, etc.In the discursive layer, various causes and factors were identified and analyzed, including the historical mistrust towards the political sphere, the duality of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Shia culture and thought, the modern thought and worldview, the discourse of transformation, the discourse of Western development, and the alienation of political governance, etc. Moving to the metaphorical/mythical layer, factors such as the portrayal of the government as a bandit in Iranian culture, the usurpation of power by the state, the metaphor of the Alavi government, and historical transformation-seeking were recognized and discussed as influential elements in the development of social dissatisfaction.Moreover, in accordance with expert opinions, three scenarios (desirable, possible, and probable) were formulated and constructed regarding the future of social dissatisfaction in Iran. In the desirable scenario, effective reformist measures and the realization of the right to protest would lead to a reduction in social dissatisfaction, putting protests within a legally recognized framework. In the possible scenario, considering the continuation and exacerbation of underlying causes of dissatisfaction, we would witness the accumulation of social dissatisfaction and the emergence of intermittent episodes of violent social protests. Finally, according to the probable scenario, civil disobedience would arise as a result of the prevailing security-focused approach and the rising costs of engaging in protests.ConclusionSocial dissatisfaction remains a significant issue in Iran, posing considerable challenges to political stability and national security. Effective policymaking and management concerning social dissatisfaction initially requires a comprehensive and accurate understanding of this complex issue. In this line, the present study used the CLA method as an effective approach to examine different causal layers and drivers and their impact on social dissatisfaction. The results indicated that the Islamic Republic of Iran aims to move towards its desired scenario, which involves reducing dissatisfaction and implementing a persuasive and systematic approach to managing social protests. However, given the current circumstances, attaining this scenario proves to be challenging. Instead, the possible scenario entails the continued accumulation of dissatisfaction and ongoing social protests, which will pose a significant challenge to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Protests will be characterized by increased violence, potentially leading the political system to adopt a hard approach in suppressing and managing social unrest. This, in turn, may exacerbate radicalism and further fuel social dissatisfaction. The probable scenario, characterized by intermittent and costly protests as well as civil disobedience, presents an alternative outlook for the future of social dissatisfaction. In this scenario, social dissatisfaction manifests itself through intermittent protests that occur at various intervals and in response to specific events. As social dissatisfaction continues to evolve and persist, some citizens may resort to civil disobedience and divergence from official values and norms.
International Relations
Marjan Badiee Azandahi; Farzin Zandi; Kyomars Yazdanpanah
Abstract
Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. ...
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Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. Scholars in this field believe that countries such as Russia, China, and Iran have successfully employed tools and tactics within this concept, enabling them to pursue their security and political interests without triggering major power sensitivities. In this regard, the escalating intensification of geopolitical rivalries in Southwestern Asia, especially between Iran and regional and extra-regional countries, has become a significant challenge when it comes to ensuring security in this area. Adopting the security-for-all-or-no-one approach, Iran aims to establish superiority in its geopolitical rivalry with the United States, the most prominent external actor in this field. Since 2003 and the aftermath of the Iraq war, Iran has introduced a novel strategy in its geopolitical approach. In this respect, the present study aimed to elaborate on the concept of gray zone and highlight its key components as influential variables in Iran’s geopolitical strategy. Materials and MethodsAs an applied study, the present research employed a comparative descriptive–analytical approach. The data collection method involved a combination of library research and computer-assisted techniques.Results and DiscussionAs containment measures against Iran intensify due to the US unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), there have been increasing efforts to neutralize Iran’s strategies and weaken its regional activities, particularly in the realm of geopolitics of resistance. These developments pose a potential threat to Iran’s national security. It is thus necessary to identify and examine the components of Iran’s geopolitical strategy while considering alternative interpretations. Iran’s geopolitical expansion in the region have prompted the West and its allies to impede Iran’s geopolitical influence by scrutinizing its geopolitical territorialization approach marked by the formation and organization of as well as support for proxy forces, manifested in shaping the political dynamics of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and even in direct confrontations with the West on the Syrian battlefield. In this context, leveraging its historical, geographical, and cultural unity, Iran has successfully mobilized communities throughout Southwest Asia by relying on small non-state groups, and emphasizing commonalities while overlooking divergences. This mobilization effort is gradually expanding its reach from the southern Arabian Peninsula to the shores of the Mediterranean.By examining the interpretations of gray zone and geopolitics of resistance as two key strategies, this research aimed to address the question of how Iran seeks to achieve its desired security and implement its geopolitical strategy in Southwest Asia. The term axis of resistance refers to geographical regions that pursue both ideological and geopolitical objectives. On the other hand, gray zone is not necessarily a geographical representation of a strategy, but rather a number of tactics that employ specific tools to advance geopolitical interests in strategically significant geographical areas.The findings of this study reveal that Iran’s geopolitical rivalry in Southwest Asia, particularly with the United States, has led Iran to develop a distinct geopolitical strategy known as axis of resistance, or according to American scholarship, gray zone. In this strategy, Iran aims to achieve its security objectives by focusing on five key areas (i.e., military, political, economic, informational–narrative, and cultural or religious) and relying on cooperation and support of non-state armed groups in specific countries in the region. In this way, Iran has successfully achieved its objectives by establishing geopolitical corridors and attaining the desired geographical integration in Southwest Asia. This has enabled Iran to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea and establish proximity to Israel. However, unless subnational and national requirements are seriously taken into account, the mentioned security achievements will prove ineffective and temporary. In other words, despite Iran’s expansion of geopolitical territorialization, the erosion of internal capabilities, particularly in the political sphere, coupled with the disruption of Iran’s economic lifelines, will gradually lead to increased challenges in sustaining support for its geopolitical arms.ConclusionWhen examining the objectives, methods, and tools employed by the United States to counter Iran’s gray zone geopolitical strategy, it becomes evident that the US, rather than solely relying on its own capabilities and geopolitical confrontation, has prioritized targeting Iran’s vulnerable points. While countering Iran’s gray zone strategy, the United States has adopted a hybrid approach that encompasses all four primary domains: political, economic, military, and informational. However, America has specifically recognized the political and economic domains as the Achilles heel of Iran’s security, and by extension, of the gray zone strategy. At the same time, the United States is diligently uncovering Iran’s vulnerabilities by restructuring its decision-making processes within the government and military, as well as streamlining bureaucracy to facilitate prompt responsive measures in the gray zone. Through exerting influence and applying pressure on Iran in the aforementioned domains, the United States aims to achieve a goal that surpasses mere neutralization of the gray zone strategy, that is, undermining Iran’s national and territorial security. As a result, America has successfully identified Iran’s vulnerabilities in key military, political, economic, and informational domains. It has thus devised and carried out tactics appropriate for each domain, both within the framework of the US gray zone strategy and through conventional means.
Public policy
Ehsan Eilshahi; Seyed Ataollah Sinaee; Seyed Khodayar Mortazavi
Abstract
Reviewing the history of Iran's development efforts in the past 150 years shows periods of accompanying, or being ahead and behind countries. Japan and South Korea have a clear position in this field. This research examines Iran's development situation in comparison with these two countries in historical ...
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Reviewing the history of Iran's development efforts in the past 150 years shows periods of accompanying, or being ahead and behind countries. Japan and South Korea have a clear position in this field. This research examines Iran's development situation in comparison with these two countries in historical periods (1860-1926 and 1963-2010), within the framework of North, Acemoglu, and Robinson's institutional model. This approach focuses on formal rules, procedures, and organizations to explain the relationship between institutional structures and the success or failure of policies. The main question in this research is that despite the creation of political structure in Iran in the 19th century, compared to the experiences of Japan In the second half of the 19th century and South Korea in the early 20th century, why did the development program in Iran not go well and comprehensive political and economic institutional arrangements were not achieved? The obtained results show that the alignment of the government and the developing nation in Iran has not been successful due to the lack of institutional development.
Abolfazl Ghasemi; Morteza Alavian; Maryam Hosseini
Abstract
Governments in water-based civilizations have been stronger than society due to organizational consolidation, and water and its consumption have caused water to play its essential role in shaping the socio-political relations of nations and human societies. Therefore, the main question of the research ...
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Governments in water-based civilizations have been stronger than society due to organizational consolidation, and water and its consumption have caused water to play its essential role in shaping the socio-political relations of nations and human societies. Therefore, the main question of the research is what are the requirement of state and society interaction in Iran water governance? Findings of the research based on descriptive-analytical method show that the state in Iran due to its ability to penetrate, the ability to regulate social relations and resource allocation has made it stronger than society. Factors that strengthen the state in Iran in the field of water are: port transfer, licensing, water treatment, structural policy, pricing policy, obtaining permits for diversions, increasing population and raising living standards, agricultural and industrial growth, resolving disputes between water applicants, creating economic and socio-cultural incentives. To change water management, we need to change the behavior of state and society in the form of water governance. The strategic implication that should be considered in the interaction of the state and society in the water governance include: Sustainable Behavior Change, National Dialogue, Institutionalization and Creation Efficient and Effective Structure, holistic thinking, attention to the historical and cultural background, social learning, referential of the water governance.
Khalil Sardarnia; Henghameh Alborzi
Abstract
The social and guild protests from 2017 onward are a turning point in Iran because of intrinsically and formal differences with the protests in past. This research has been done by street politics theory and exploration-content analysis method by emphasis a social- guild protesters and viewpoint of expert. ...
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The social and guild protests from 2017 onward are a turning point in Iran because of intrinsically and formal differences with the protests in past. This research has been done by street politics theory and exploration-content analysis method by emphasis a social- guild protesters and viewpoint of expert. The authors try to answer this question: What are the differences between intrinsic and formal past protests the social and guild protests from 2017 onward and the past protests and why have been happened? The main findings of this study follow that: This protest intrinsically have been spontaneous- direct in street, leaderless, innovation in protest tactics, distrust to civic- guild assemblies, serial-continues horizontal relation whit other protests and so on. The information of this study shows that economic, political, social, motivational, environmental and legal variables respectively have been impact on this protest, but the economic variables have been in the most effectives.
afshin rostami; Ali Amiri; hamed abaci
Abstract
Geopolitical developments and events are always among the factors that create geopolitical opportunities and challenges for political actors, and political actors seek to make the most of geopolitical opportunities and eliminate or reduce challenges. The iraq war against iran was one of those events ...
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Geopolitical developments and events are always among the factors that create geopolitical opportunities and challenges for political actors, and political actors seek to make the most of geopolitical opportunities and eliminate or reduce challenges. The iraq war against iran was one of those events that, while creating geopolitical challenges for iran, also provided geopolitical opportunities for it, especially in the eastern mediterranean. As the eastern mediterranean region is considered to be iran's most important sphere of influence today, this article seeks to examine how iraq's imposed war on iran made iran's geopolitical foundations in the region meaningful and how geopolitical opportunities used it.In this article, information has been collected by library and documentary methods and analyzed descriptively-analytically. The results show that the holy defense created geopolitical opportunities for iran in the eastern mediterranean and iran was able to strengthen the foundations of expanding its strategic depth in the eastern mediterranean based on the definition of the geopolitical code of the axis of resistance by using the geopolitical foundations of the eastern mediterranean in the period of the holy defense and become its most important geostrategic region to date.
Reza Khalili; Ghadir Nasri; Salman Dastafshan
Abstract
In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the ...
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In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the study consists the citizens of southern regions of Kerman province. The sample size is 384 people using the Cochran formula and the sampling method is randomized population size. The research data are analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics based on SPSS statistical software. The research hypothesis is that synchronization and synergy of the effects of individual, national and transnational factors and bases have increased the tendency to Takfiri groups in the south of Kerman. The findings of the research show that, while there is difference between the individual, national and transnational level factors and bases, there is a positive and significant relationship between those and tendency to Takfiri groups in south of Kerman. The results of regression analysis show that the national level factors have the most significant effect on the tendency to Takfiri groups, and the transnational and individual level factors and bases are in the next category.
Mitra Rahnejhad; Tirdad Taghipoor Javi
Abstract
In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence ...
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In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence of China and the European Union in the West Asian region, the question arises as to what effect the economic interests of China and the European Union in this region have on Iran's national security? The main hypothesis is: that: Since China and the European Union have no security competition and at the same time both are important economic players in the world; In the context of extensive US sanctions against Iran, the intersection of the interests of these two supra-regional powers in West Asia and its alignment with the interests of Iran's regional rivals will be a challenge to Iran's national security. This article seeks to answer the question of the article with a comparative view, based on the Copenhagen School of Security.
seyedreza mousavinia
Abstract
The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is ...
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The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is considered as an unfinished project. Future studies do not entail familiar future, unthoughtful future and genus forecasting in the future cycle. At the same time, competition, complexity, contradiction, turmoil, increasing developments, the growing role of science, and uncertainty are among the main drivers of the future, and limiting future research to the study of current trends, events, and perceptions poses a serious risk. Nonetheless, futures studies provide for the states to make desirable future, and therefore is more advanced than explanatory studies. Our main question is: What is the common pattern in the future study of states behavior in foreign policy and what are the restrictions on it? In response to this hypothesis, the pattern in the future studies of states behavior in foreign policy is extent present, and in this model, the role of familiar future, genius forecasting and unthoughtful future in scenarios making are not clear. The pattern of the extent present will be shown in the future with an example of US sanctions against Iran until 2020. The research method is scenario writing based on the extent present pattern.
Mohammad Aryanmanesh; Ahmad Javanshiri; Mohsen Modirshanechi
Abstract
The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the ...
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The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.
Mahdi Abdollahi Ziyaedini; ALi Morshedi Zad
Abstract
The main issue of the present research is to explain the causes of the emergence of ethnic political actions in different status of governance in Iran with an emphasis on the dialectic of democracy and development, while the required mood of interaction between the state and ethnicities has been identified. ...
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The main issue of the present research is to explain the causes of the emergence of ethnic political actions in different status of governance in Iran with an emphasis on the dialectic of democracy and development, while the required mood of interaction between the state and ethnicities has been identified. The research method is a qualitative comparative-historical that is used in the theoretical framework of Charles Tilly's social movements to explain two democracy and developmental components.
As a result of the research, the era before the Islamic Revolution was non-democratic state with low development capacity because of Assimilation and the early years of the revolution is democratic capacity with a low capacity because of tolerant approach. In the final stages of the war, Sazandegi, the ninth and tenth governments and the Etedal, the capacity of the government has risen, because of the necessity of the development of infrastructure, and the improvement of the economic and social situation but the level of democracy has diminished because of security and countering Separatism. Finally, the era of Eslahat is seen as an optimal state of a democratic state with a high development potential.
ali bagheri dolatabadi
Abstract
The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran has had widespread reflections in the region and in the world. Despite the fact that the greatest impact of the Islamic Revolution took place in the region and in Iran's neighbors, some evidence implying that the extent of the impact of the Iranian revolution ...
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The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran has had widespread reflections in the region and in the world. Despite the fact that the greatest impact of the Islamic Revolution took place in the region and in Iran's neighbors, some evidence implying that the extent of the impact of the Iranian revolution on Central Asia countries has been limited. This research seeks to answer the question why the Islamic Revolution failed to have an outstanding effect on the region? The hypothesis of the research points to the existence of problems in the political structure of the Central Asian countries in accepting the revolution, as well as the problems inside Iran to export the revolution. For this purpose, causative method and diffusion theory have been used. The findings of the research show that Some problems in the Origin and destination of the diffusion, including the lack of proper attention of Iran to the region of Central Asia, the pragmatic approach of Iran's foreign policy, the existence of authoritarian governments in the above region, the existence of regional and transnational rivals and etc. have been the most important reasons for Iran's failure to export its revolution to the central Asian countries.
rohollah eslami; reza sarhadi; mehdi feizi
Abstract
Border Rivers, as one of the most important natural terrain, are always the source of many differences in relations between states. The Hirmand River is the main artery of the Hamoon Lake, the borderline between Iran and Afghanistan, which has caused many border controversies between the two countries ...
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Border Rivers, as one of the most important natural terrain, are always the source of many differences in relations between states. The Hirmand River is the main artery of the Hamoon Lake, the borderline between Iran and Afghanistan, which has caused many border controversies between the two countries to this day. Failure of Afghanistan's to adhere to 1973 agreement to provide the water right of the Hirmand River, and hence the land of Hamoon, as a lake that Sistan's life is dependent on, has exacerbated the increasing challenges in the Sistan region. There has been a lot of negotiation between Iran and Afghanistan. Authors intend to answer the question of what are the strategies of diplomacy for providing the water right to the Hirmand River between Iran and Afghanistan. In the framework of game theory, in the first stage, the Hirmand Water Crisis should be considered as an important priority in the field of Iranian policy. Then, in the process of negotiations between Iran and Afghanistan based on diplomacy, the rationality of actors, Afghanistan’s access to the Chabahar port and the provision of the Hirmand water right as the point of equilibrium and the best option for both countries.
Ebrahim Abbassi; Shabnam Akbari
Abstract
The immigration is an important subject in the world and the Middle East. This subject has been affected economic, social and political factors. The main question of this research is why Iranians immigrants move to Kuwait and how could affect the political, social and economic relations between two countries? ...
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The immigration is an important subject in the world and the Middle East. This subject has been affected economic, social and political factors. The main question of this research is why Iranians immigrants move to Kuwait and how could affect the political, social and economic relations between two countries? Hypothesis of this research is that we can explain the causes of immigration on the basis of two theories: the theory of attraction and repulsion and model of cost-benefit. The variables in the national, regional and international levels explain the trends of immigrations of Iranians to Kuwait including: Petrol, Islamic Revolution, the Persian Gulf War, Relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia and etc. Research findings show Iranian immigrants are important minority in this country. But governments of two countries couldn’t have a share from this potential in extension of their relations. The causes of them are on vision of Kuwait government to immigrants as stranger, be Shia most of them and not pay attention of Iran government to them and their economical vision for business. The research with analytic and descriptive method try to study why and effect of immigration and Iranian immigrants on relations between Iran and Kuwait.
ghasem misaei; faez dinparast; abas taghipoor
Abstract
This article studies the position of the political development in the Islamic Republic of Iran development programs. Development is a general concept and indivisible, in this article its political section is considered and the following question is studied: what is the position of the political development ...
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This article studies the position of the political development in the Islamic Republic of Iran development programs. Development is a general concept and indivisible, in this article its political section is considered and the following question is studied: what is the position of the political development in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth programs? In order to answer to this question, context analysis is used and development programs are selected as background. The findings of the research indicate that the political development in four development programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been considered. However, the amount of attention in each of the four programs was different. This amount of attention in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth programs is 31 Percent, 50 Percent, 29 Percent, and 43 Percent respectively. According to statistics, there is an increasing amount of attention to the political development in development plans, with the exception that this focus in the fifth and sixth programs have decreased compared to the other two programs.
mahdieh heydari; HOSSIEN DAHESHIAR
Abstract
The most serious threat that is perceived by each of the carriers involved in the crisis in an international crisis is "the threat of their fundamental values." Through an analytical descriptive method, this paper seeks to understand why Iran's direct violence to manage crises Syria. So the main question ...
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The most serious threat that is perceived by each of the carriers involved in the crisis in an international crisis is "the threat of their fundamental values." Through an analytical descriptive method, this paper seeks to understand why Iran's direct violence to manage crises Syria. So the main question of the research is why Iran is using maximum violence to manage the Syrian crisis? The temporary response is that Iran has used the highest levels of violence to manage the crisis on the basis of the perception of the threat to its fundamental values in the Syrian crisis. In this study, using Stanford's model of crisis management, we conclude that the perception of the threat to Iran's fundamental values in the Syrian crisis that threatens Iran's territorial integrity, its strategic depth, the threat of the collapse of the resistance axis, and, ultimately, the imbalance of ideology in area in the Syrian crisis has called for a violent response from Iran. The data collection and information collection in this study is based on a library method that includes the use of internal books and articles and foreign, publications and press and internet sites are valid.
Faeghe Chalabi; Rajab Izadi; kamaladin Herisinejad
Abstract
Political parties in democratic systems are considered as intermediate institutions of democratic regimes by organizing political power, mobilizing popular forces and regulating the relating power. Political parties plays an important role in regulating the reciprocal relations of the ruling powers; ...
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Political parties in democratic systems are considered as intermediate institutions of democratic regimes by organizing political power, mobilizing popular forces and regulating the relating power. Political parties plays an important role in regulating the reciprocal relations of the ruling powers; the influence of parties in the interactions of the legislative and executive power has created a dramatic changes in the division of the classical powers of contemporary states. On the other hand, political circles sometimes talk about changing the political system of Iran to the parliamentary system or the legislature’s transforming into two parliamentary chambers; on the other hand, the interrelationships between the legislative and executive bodies are faced with deadlocks. One of the requirements for solving such challenges is the existence of parties in the political system; Therefore, this article examines the function of parties in regulating the relations of powers in the United Kingdom, United States and Iran as a parliamentary, presidential and semi-presidential systems, seeks to identify the disadvantages and advantages of party systems in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States as party success styles and to explain the challenges of interfering in the interactions of the Iranian state by eliminating the existing shortcomings.
Abstract
Historical facts show that national identity is a constant process and should be noted here that when a nation is formed, it does not continue by itself and the notion that it does not require any effort is wrong. On the contrary, the nation are exposed to ups and downs. Thus, discourse-based products ...
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Historical facts show that national identity is a constant process and should be noted here that when a nation is formed, it does not continue by itself and the notion that it does not require any effort is wrong. On the contrary, the nation are exposed to ups and downs. Thus, discourse-based products of a country's currents can affect nation-building processes. Identity as social foundations emerge in the process of social foundationalism with reliance on collective memory and all epistemological sources, taking into account that social objective structure redefines and re-interprets with the passage of time. They are constantly used for reinterpretation in light of different methods used to explain the concept.
The leftist flow or what the researcher names it socialism Marxism, is selected as one of the influential flows in contemporary Iranian history for the following research. This paper, while comprehending the evolution of national identity in the course of history, has come to a pattern of identity discourse in the mentioned flow.
mitra Rah nejat; hassan kabiri
Abstract
Azerbaijan, one of south Caucasus countries, is very important for Iran because of its geopolitics and geo-economics’ features. In spite of existence convergence background between both countries, we witness divergence between them. Main question: During 2000-2016 which factors impact on divergence ...
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Azerbaijan, one of south Caucasus countries, is very important for Iran because of its geopolitics and geo-economics’ features. In spite of existence convergence background between both countries, we witness divergence between them. Main question: During 2000-2016 which factors impact on divergence between Iran and Azerbaijan? Main Hypothesis: It seems economy-security-military factors are main factors that impact on divergence between two countries that regional and Trans-regional actors use them as influence tools for restriction of Iran’s influence scope in the region and threat of Iran. This article use analytical – description methods base on new data so that propose opportunities for foreign policy of Iran.
Yousof Qorashi; Hadi Sadeghi Aval
Abstract
This article examines different aspects of Pakistani Baloch nationalism and its impact on Iranian Baloch who inhabit in Sistan-Balochistan province. The importance of this issue in one hand, is based on deeply ideological, religious, ethnic and sometimes security developments in Iran's border areas, ...
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This article examines different aspects of Pakistani Baloch nationalism and its impact on Iranian Baloch who inhabit in Sistan-Balochistan province. The importance of this issue in one hand, is based on deeply ideological, religious, ethnic and sometimes security developments in Iran's border areas, and on the other hand, in the east and southeast Iran, there is a country, that is Pakistan, in which fundamental, anti-Shia, ethnic, and ideological groups have existed. In the article, based on Emile Durkheim’s concept of mechanical solidarity, we intend to analyze the historical and social formation of Baloch in Pakistan and its impact on ethnic fragmentation in the eastern borders of Iran. The findings reveal that based on Durkheim's concept of mechanical solidarity, Pakistani Baloch has inspired Iranian Baloch ethnically and ideologically, and despite their varieties in terms of practical mechanism, Pakistani Baloch generally desire the formation of the Great Balochistan. Base on the aspiration, some groups are branched Baloch are inclined to military modus operandi so that they can the eastern areas of Shiite Iran and attract Baloch who live in Sistan-Baluchistan province. Based on this aspiration, some branches of the Baloch tribal elite even went to the military direction, while insecuring the Eastern regions of Iran, attract Baluchis living in Sistan and Baluchistan province.
mostafa rashidi; Fathali khanmohammadpour; Bahador Zarei
Abstract
Government relations in past centuries was based more on hard power. Today, culture and soft power as an important indicator in development of relations between states plays a role. Governments are seeking to use the various tools in the new age, a new and useful contact for efficient diplomacy. Today, ...
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Government relations in past centuries was based more on hard power. Today, culture and soft power as an important indicator in development of relations between states plays a role. Governments are seeking to use the various tools in the new age, a new and useful contact for efficient diplomacy. Today, a country has a good diplomacy that, by expanding its tools of engagement with other actors, may achieve an appropriate identity with other states. One of the new aspects of diplomacy, is taking advantage of the university diplomacy, so-called "diplomacy of Higher Education", which is considered by the authors of this study. So in this article we have tried to approach based on constructivism and according to the principles of recognition and engagement and its impact on redefining the identity and interests of the actors in relation to each other, the role of higher education on political relations between Iran and Europe Union is to be addressed. The basic research questions are: what impacts can University Relations and Diplomacy have on political relations between Iran and Europe Union? This article is written in a descriptive analytical way.
