Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Culture and Communication Research, Institute of Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Postdoctoral Researcher, International Relations, Allameh Tabataba'i University
Abstract
New dynamics of power are emerging in the of Central Asia and the Caucasus region after the collapse of the Soviet Union which can be analyzed under the new power game conception. unlike the traditional great game, in this game many global and regional powers are competing. rise of Turkey and shaping smooth regional alliances, increasing economic investments by GCC countries and Israel in the region, as well as uncertainties about the future of the Iran-Russia-China axis, has created a new configuration of power game between regional and trans-regional powers. This article tries to analyze the geopolitical consequences for Iran in the future by identifying the megatrends of power dynamics in the Central Asia and Caucasus region. the question is that, what place will Iran have in the future of the geopolitical equations of the Central Asian region and the Caucasus? The hypothesis is that the continuation of regional security dynamics will lead to the decline of Iran's regional position. the method used in the article was based on trend analysis.
Keywords
- پدرام، عبدالرحیم و احمدیان، مهدی، (1394)، آموزه‌ها و آزموده‌های آینده‌پژوهی، تهران: موسسه افق آینده‌پژوهی راهبردی.
- حافظ‌نیا، محمدرضا و دیگران، (1386)، «علایق ژئوپلیتیکی ایران در آسیای مرکزی و فرصت‌های پیش‌رو»، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک، سال 3، شماره 3.
- حکیم، حمید و جعفری ولدانی، اصغر، (1394)، «تحولات ژئوپلیتیک قفقاز و امنیت جمهوری اسلامی ایران»، فصلنامه علمی مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، دوره 21، شماره 91.
- سیمبر، علیرضا، (1385)، «جایگاه ایران در تحولات ژئوپلیتیک آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز»، دو فصلنامه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه‌ای، سال 3، شماره 6.
- مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی، (1399)، «وضعیت تجارت و ظرفیت‌های همکاری اقتصادی دوجانبه ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا»، قابل دسترسی در: https:// rc. majlis. ir /fa /report /show/1627599.
- میلانی، محسن، (2021)، «مصاحبه با یورو نیوز»، قابل دسترسی در:
References
- Avdaliani, E (August 31, 2020), “Defying Geography: The Israeli-Azerbaijan Partnership”, BESA Center Perspectives Paper, No. 1, Vol. 723.
- Bora, S. I, (2017), China’s Growing Presence in the Caucasus, Commentary, retrieved from: https://avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/China-S-Growing -Presence -in-the-Caucasus.
- Hafeznia, M. Shams Daulatabadi, M and Afshardi , M (2007), “Iran's Geopolitical Interests in Central Asia and Upcoming Opportunities”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Year 3. Number 3. pp. 78-119. [in Persian].
- Hakim, H and Jafari Veldani, A (2015), “Caucasus Geopolitical Developments and the Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, Scientific Quarterly of Central Asia and Caucasus Studies, Volume 21, Number 91, pp: 37-64. [In Persian]
- Iskandarov, K, (2019), The South Caucasus-NATO Cooperation, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing.
- Karaganov, S, (2018), “The New Cold War and the Emerging Greater Eurasia”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 9(2), 85-93
- Karavayev, A., & Tishehyar, M, (2019), International North–South Transport Corridor and Transregional Integration Scenarios, Valdai Discussion Club Report.
- Lindenstrauss, G, (2015), “Israel-Azerbaijan: Despite the Constraints, A Special Relationship”, Strategic Assessment, 17(4), 69-79.
- MFA of Kazakhstan, (2021), “Kazakhstan - United Arab Emirates”, retrieved from: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa?lang=en.
- MFA of Kazakhstan, (2017), “Second Session of the Arab Economic and Cooperation Forum with the Countries of Central Asia and the Republic of Azerbaijan”, Retrieved from: https:// www. mfa. tj/ en/ main/ view/ 2423/ second- session- of- the- arab- economic- and-cooperation-forum-with-the-countries-of-central-asia-and-the-republic-of-azerbaijan.
- Majlis Research Center, (2020), “Trade Situation and Capacities of Bilateral Economic Cooperation between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union”, Retrieved from: https:// rc. majlis. ir/ fa/ report/ show/1627599. [In Persian]
- Milani, Mohsen, (2021), “Euronews Interview”, Retrived from: https://per.euronews.com/2021/10/04/geopolitics-of-caucasus-iran-military-drill-republic-of-azerbaijan- Israel-Nagorny-Karabakh. [In Persian]
- Olcott, M. B, (1991), “Central Asia's Catapult to Independence”, Foreign Aff, 71, 108.
- Pedram, A and Ahmadian, M, (2015), Lessons and Experiences of Future Studies, Tehran: Strategic Institute. [In Persian]
- RIA Novosti, (2019), “Russia and Iran Facilitate Cooperation with their Systems as an Alternative to SWIFT]”, RIA Novosti, September 13, 2019. retrieved from: https://ria.ru/20190913/1558669383.html.
- Sahakyan, M, (2021), The New Great Power Competition in Central Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for the Gulf.
- Samaan, J. L, (2014), “Israël et l'Eurasie: le retour de la doctrine de la périphérie?”, Geoeconomie, (5), 139-150.
- Seiple, C, (2004), Heartland Geopolitics and the Case of Uzbekistan, Foreign Policy Research Institute.
- Sloan, G, (1999), “Sir Halford J. Mackinder: The Heartland Theory then and Now”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 22(2-3), 15-38.
- Simbar, A, (2006), “Iran's Position in the Geopolitical Developments of Central Asia and the Caucasus”, Two Quarterly Journals of Geography and Regional Development, Year 3, No. 6, pp: 72-89. [In Persian]
- M, (2015), “Sources of Israel’s Policy in the Caucasus”, Carnegie Moscow Center. Retrieved from: https:// carnegiemoscow. org/ commentary/58972.
- The Moscow Times, (26 July 2002) ‘China Pipeline Terms Agreed’, Retrieved from: http:// www. themoscowtimes. com/ stories/ 2002/ 07/ 26/ 045.html.
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, (2019), “SCO Secretary-General meets with Arab League Countries’ Ambassadors to China”, Retrieved from: http://eng.sectsco.org/news/20191205/610151.html.
)