Developments in the Middle East
farshid farhadi; Afshin Mottaghi
Abstract
Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical ...
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Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical population is composed of two main categories: documents and elites. The latter is also divided into academic and executive groups. Data collection is also carried out using the library study and field survey methods. The research findings yielded 2 possible scenarios of Escape from Hobbesian and Again the spiral of fear. The general analysis of the scenarios suggests that new season will begin in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A situation whose important feature will be to reduce the intensity of tension and conflict between the two countries in the horizon of 2030. Of course, if the drivers of chaos, such as the negative role of America and Israel, do not prevail.
Vahid RanjbarHeydari; Arsalan Ghorbani; Reza Simbar; Ebrahim Hajiani
Abstract
The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 ...
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The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 horizons. The present study uses 5methods of futuristic research, namely, cross-impact analysis, 5 key factors; the attitude of the rulers of Iran and the Cooperation Council countries towards each other; increasing the arms and military rivalry of the member states of the Council and Iran with the aim of hegemony in The region, fears of the Shiite Crescent Celestial Theory and the Centenary Revolutionary Guards have been identified with the aim of confronting Iran and identity differences, the future of Syria, Iraq, Yemen on the relationship between Iran and the future of Iran's nuclear program. These proxies were used as the underlying factors in the Scenarios program. Finally, with multiple analyzes, including a panel of experts, out of 128 possible scenarios, 4 possible scenarios were identified: war boats, warships, passenger ships, and shipwreck. Eventually, the scenario of Warship identified as a probable scenario with a high probability of introducing the passenger ship's scenario as a preferred and desirable scenario for Iran.