نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مطالعات منطقه‌ای، خاورمیانه و شمال افریقا دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
چکیده
فرایند آسیایی‌شدن منطقه خلیج فارس تحت تأثیر الزام‌های گوناگون سیاسی- اقتصادی، بی‌شک مهم‌ترین چرخش سیاسی- دیپلماتیک کشورهای عربی این منطقه از زمان تأسیس تا به امروز بوده است. رابطه میان آسیا و خلیج فارس که از دهه‌ها قبل آغاز شد، امروزه تحت تأثیر عواملی چندگانه به مرحله‌ای نوین از تکامل خود رسیده است. این نوشتار با اتکا بر روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و با اتکا بر روش استنتاج علی و بهره‌گیری از رویکرد چندعلیتی خرد و کلان درصدد پاسخ‌گویی به این پرسش است که چه مؤلفه‌های سیاسی- اقتصادی منجر به آسیایی شدن خلیج فارس و چرخش اعضای شورای همکاری خلیج فارس به سوی شرکای آسیایی شده است؟ ادعای این مقاله آن است که افزایش توجه سیاست خارجی کشورهای شورای همکاری خلیج فارس به روابط آسیایی ناشی از تاثیرگذاری مولفه‌هایی در سطوح فرد، نقش، جامعه، دولت و ساختار نظام بین‌الملل است. یافته‌های این پژوهش بیانگر این است که فارغ از تعاملات تاریخی در زمینه‌های فرهنگی، انرژی، تجاری و نظامی؛ عواملی نظیر تغییر نسل در رهبران شورا، ضرورت ایجاد اقتصاد مولد و تضمین بقا و مشروعیت دولت‌های خلیج فارس در کنار تحولاتی در سطح ساختار بین‌المللی از جمله تسریع انتقال قدرت از غرب به شرق، خیزش خارق‌العاده چین و ضرورت موازنه‌سازی منطقه‌ای منجر به تثبیت و تسریع آسیایی شدن اعضای شورا در سال‌های اخیر شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Asianization of the Persian Gulf: Political–Economic Factors Affecting the Asianist Approach of the GCC Countries
نویسندگان [English]
- Fariborz Arghavani Pirsalami 1
- Ali Dehghan 2
1 Associate Professor, International Relations, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Master Student, Regional Studies, The Middle East, North Africa, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]
Introduction
Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—both before and after gaining independence in the 1970s—have predominantly adhered to Western approaches and attitudes. Notably, there has been a significant shift in the foreign policy and economic perspectives of the member states. This shift is characterized by an increased focus on fostering economic–political interactions with the Asian super-region, particularly the East Asian subregion (e.g., Japan and China). This shift is evident in collaborative mega-projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s Arab Policy Paper, and increasing relations in different fields. The new policy reflects a discernible shift in discourse and a departure from purely Western perspectives, heralding a transition to emerging economic and political views within the Asian super-region, while maintaining relations with Western powers, such as the United States. The present study aimed to examine the political–economic factors accelerating the Asianization of the GCC members and steering them towards new Asian partners. The central question is: What political–economic factors have contributed to the Asianization of the Persian Gulf and the shift of focus of GCC members towards Asian partners? The article posits that the shift in the foreign policy of GCC members can be attributed to the influence of various factors associated with individual, societal, and governmental levels, as well as the factors relating to roles and the structure of the international system.
Theoretical Framework
It seems that a multi-causal explanation of how the GCC countries engage with emerging Asian powers, as well as their gradual foreign policy shift from the Western block towards Eastern powers, necessitates an approach that takes into account both macro and micro perspectives. To conduct a multi-causal explanation of Asianism in foreign policy actions and behaviors of GCC states, the present research integrated macro-level analytical components, such as the influence of the international structure, and the micro-level factors such as the roles played by leaders, governments, and society. Given its inclusivity and theoretical breadth, the theoretical framework could offer more analytical possibilities to address almost every component and factor involved in Asianization of the Persian Gulf.
Materials and Methods
To address the research question and test the hypothesis, the study relied on the descriptive–analytical method and causal inference, adopting a multi-causal approach at both micro and macro levels.
Results and Discussion
The Asianization of the Persian Gulf region, influenced by various political–economic requisites, stands out as the most pivotal political and diplomatic shift experienced by the Arab countries in the region. The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked a transition from a bipolar to a multipolar international system. Amid the struggle of the Western bloc for supremacy during the Cold War, Asia embarked on a decisive path of growth and prominence in the 1960s and 1970s, diverging from the prevailing Western current. As an ancillary consequence in the international scene, regionalism has emerged in Asia, with a focus on East Asian actors. With the rise of the emerging pole of power in East Asia over recent decades, the Asian super-region is actively working to shape the new international order and extra-regional agendas, leveraging increased economic power and the ability to shape the discourse at the international level. The economic rise of China, alongside Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, which accounted for a third of the world’s gross domestic product in 2000, heralded the participation of the Asian super-region in the international order. These developments gave rise to Asianism as an alternative to the Western framework as well as a successful model of economic development at both regional and extra-regional levels—which could expand the influence and reach of Asian countries in shaping political agendas and the then new international order. Therefore, Asianization can be viewed as a transitional process that includes the divergence of governments at regional and international levels from the dominant Western current in political, economic, cultural, and military arenas, leading to the increased role and dominance of Asian alternatives over recent decades.
The research findings highlight that beyond historical interactions in cultural, energy, commercial, and military areas, several factors have contributed to the Asianization of the GCC members. The factors include a generational shift among the GCC leaders, the necessity of fostering a productive economy to ensure the survival and legitimacy of the Persian Gulf states, and global developments in the international structure such as the acceleration of power shift from the West to the East, the remarkable rise of China, and the need for regional balance. In recent years, these factors have resulted in the stabilization and acceleration of the Asianization among the GCC member states. Notably, the contribution of the international structure is significantly more influential than other variables. The ongoing transition and structural changes within the international system have not only shaped the evolving attitudes of new GCC leaders towards economic functionalism and international cooperation but also imposed certain requirements at the reginal and international levels that could further propel the Asianization process. The latter include alliances and coalitions with Eastern powers while balancing against Iran. The variable of structural changes even becomes more significant when considering its constitutive role in shaping the future of Gulf–Asian relations.
Conclusion
Currently, the process of Asianization in the Persian Gulf is intertwined with the broader global trend of Asianization. Nevertheless, it appears that the GCC countries will continue to consider their relationships with the US and the West as crucial, particularly in military-cum-security domains where they largely rely on the US and Western partners. However, the increasing economic and political dependence on the East is influenced by evolving requirements, suggesting that international–regional connections will ultimately lay the foundation for the all-round dominance of Eastern powers, such as China, over the Western and security configuration of the Persian Gulf.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Asianization
- GCC
- Oil
- China
- East
- احمدی، حمید، (1400)، سیاست و حکومت در خاورمیانه، چاپ اول، تهران: نشر نی.
- ارغوانی پیرسلامی، فریبرز، فروتن، فاطمه، (1398)، «تعاملات سعودی- چینی و پیامدهای آن برای امنیت ایران»، روابط خارجی، 11(41)، 96-67.
- اولریکسن، کریستین کوتس، (1396)، اقتصاد سیاسی بین‌الملل خلیج فارس، ترجمه فریبرز ارغوانی پیرسلامی و دیگران، چاپ اول، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
- خانا، پاراگ، (1400)، آینده آسیایی، ترجمه محمدرضا مجیدی و محمد جوادی، چاپ اول، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، خاوران فردا.
- دنمارک، رابرت، (1395)، بازدرآمدی بر تحلیل سیاست خارجی، ترجمه ملک ذوالقدر و مهدی میرمحمدی، چاپ اول، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
- کامت، ملانی و همکاران، (1395)، اقتصاد سیاسی خاورمیانه، ترجمه فریبرز ارغوانی پیرسلامی و سحر پیرانخو، چاپ اول، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
- مورن، ژان فردریک، پاکن، جاناتان، (1399)، ابزارهای تحلیل سیاست خارجی، ترجمه وحید بزرگی، چاپ اول، تهران: نشر قومس.
References
- Arab News, (2018), “China Flags Up UAE as Silk Road Mega-hub with $300m Port Deal”, Observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. arabnews. com/node/1418636/business-economy.
- Arab News, (2018), “KhalifaSat, UAE’s first Emirati-built Satellite, Launches from Japan”, Observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. arabnews.com/node/1395571/amp.
- Azad, S, (2015), Koreans in the Persian Gulf: Policies and International Relations, New York: Routledge.
- Barber, B. B, (2020), Japan's Relations with Muslim Asia, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.
- Bazoobandi, S, (2020), The New Regional Order in the Middle East: Changes and Challenges, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.
- Blanchard, J. M. F, (2021), China's Maritime Silk Road Initiative, Africa, and the Middle East, Singapore: Springer.
- Brichs, F. I, (2012), Political Regimes in the Arab World: Society and the Exercise of Power, New York: Routledge.
- Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C, (2015), “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-First Century: China's Rise and the Fate of America's Global Position,International Security, 40(3), 7-53.
- Calvert, P, (1987), The Process of Political Succession, Nwe York: Palgrave Macmillan.
- Castles, S., De Haas, H., & Miller, M. J, (2014), The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World, New York: Guilford Press.
- Chaziza, M, (2020), “China’s Strategic Partnership with Kuwait: New Opportunities for the Belt and Road Initiative”, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 7(4), 501-519.
- Chaziza, M, (2020), China–Qatar Strategc Partnership and the Realization of One Belt, One Road Initiative, China Report, 56(1), 78-102.
- Chowdhury, M., & Rajan, S. I, (2018), South Asian Migration in the Gulf (pp. 35-59), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
- Chu, Y. H., & Zheng, Y. (Eds.), (2020), The Decline of the Western-Centric World and the Emerging New Global Order: Contending Views, New York: Routledge.
- CNBC, (2020), “The UAE Successfully Launches Mars Probe, Making History for the Arab World”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/uae-successfully-launches-mars-probe-a-historic-first-for-arab-world.html.
- CNN, (2021), CNN Exclusive: US intel and Satellite Images Show Saudi Arabia is Now Building its Own Ballistic Missiles With Help of China, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. cnn. com/ 2021/12/23/politics/saudi-ballistic-missiles-china/index.html.
- Diwan, K. S, (2017), New Generation Royals and Succession Dynamics in the Gulf States, Issue Paper, 2. observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// agsiw. org/ wp- content/ uploads/ 2017/03/ RoyalFactions_ Online.pdf.
- Ehteshami, Anoushiravan, (2013), Dynamics of Change in The Persian Gulf: Political Economy, War and Revolution, New York: Routledge.
- Findlay, A. M, (2002), The Arab World, New York: Routledge.
- Fmprc, (2021), “Wang Yi Talks about China-Arab Cooperation on COVID Response: Set a Fine Example of Solidarity and Cooperation in Difficult Times”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. fmprc. gov. cn/ mfa_ eng/ wjb_ 663304/ wjbz_ 663308/ activities_ 663312/202103/t20210327_9168121.html.
- Fox, J. W., Mourtada-Sabbah, N., & Al-Mutawa, M, (2006), Globalization and the Gulf, 32, London: Routledge.
- Fulton, J, (2022), “Systemic Change and Regional Orders: Asian Responses to a Gulf in Transitio”, The International Spectator, 57(4), 1-19.
- Fulton, J. (Ed.), (2020), Regions in the Belt and Road Initiative, Abingdon: Routledge.
- Garlick, J., & Havlová, R, (2020), “China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging Amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry”, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 49(1), 82-105.
- Gulf Times, (2018), “China is Qatar’s Key Trading Partner; Trade Volume at QR38.6bn”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. gulf- times. com/ story/ 612174/China-now-Qatar-s-third-largest-trading-partner-says-top-MCI-official.
- Gulfmigration, (2016), National and Non-National Populations in GCC Countries (1970-2010), observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// gulfmigration. grc. net/ media/ graphs/pdf.
- Hansen, B & Heurlin, B, (2000), The New World Order: Contrasting Theories, London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Held, David & Ulrichsen, Kristian, (2011), The Transfotmation of the Gulf, Politics, Economics and the Global Order, New York: Routledge
- Hubbard, B, (2021), MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman, New York: Tim Duggan Books.
- Hussain, Z, (2016), Saudi Arabia in a Multipolar World: Changing Dynamics, New York: Routledge.
- Ishii, M., Hosoda, N., Matsuo, M., & Horinuki, K, (Eds.), (2019), Asian Migrant Workers in the Arab Gulf States: The Growing Foreign Population and Their Lives, Boston: Brill.
- Jacques, M, (2009), When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, London: Penguin Books.
- Janardhan, N, (2020), The Arab Gulf’s Pivot to Asia from Transactional to Strategic Partnerships, Berlin: Gulf Studies at Gerlach Press.
- Kamrava, M, (2018), Inside the Arab State, Oxford University Press.
- Kemp, Geoffrey, (2010), The East Moves West: Indian, China and Asia’s Growing Presence in The Middle East, Washington D.C: Brookings Institiution Press
- Khaleej Times, (2018), “UAE, China Lay Solid Foundation for Future During Meeting”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-china-lay-solid-foundation-for-future-during-meeting.
- Khanna, P, (2008), The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order, New York: Random House.
- Kumaraswamy, P. R, (2019), Persian Gulf 2018 India's Relations with the Region, Singapor: Palgrave Macmillan
- Mason, R. (Ed.), (2021), New Perspectives on Middle East Politics: Economy, Society, and International Relations, American University in Cairo Press.
- - Mecouncil, (2022), “Sino-GCC Relations Past, Present, and Future Trajectories”, (observed: 7/1/2023) at: https:// mecouncil. org/ publication/ china- gcc- relations-past-present-and-future-trajectories-2.
- Mei, (2022), “China in a Volatile LNG Market and the Stakes for Qatar”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. mei. edu/ publications/ china-volatile-lng-market-and-stakes-qatar.
- OEC, (2020), “Japan/ United Arab Emirates”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// oec. world/ en/ profile/ bilateral-country/ jpn/ partner/ are.
- Olimat, Muhamad S, (2012), China and The Middle East: From Silk Road to Arab Spring, New York: Routledge.
- Peterson, J. E, (2001), “Succession in the States of the Gulf Cooperation Council”, Washington Quarterly, 24(4), 173-186.
- Ptáčková, J., Klimeš, O., & Rawnsley, G. (Eds.), (2020), Transnational Sites of China’s Cultural Diplomacy: Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East and Europe Compared. Singapor: Springer Nature.
- Quah, D, (2011), “The Global Economy’s Shifting Centre of Gravity”, Global Policy, 2(1), 3-9.
- Rajan, S. I., & Oommen, G. Z. (Eds.), (2020), Asianization of Migrant Workers in the Gulf Countries, Singapore: Springer.
- Reardon-Anderson, J. (Ed.), (2018), The Red Star and the Crescent: China and the Middle East, Oxford University Press.
- Samaan, J.L, (2018), Strategic Hedging in The Arab Peninsula: The Politics of The Gulf-Asian, New York: Routledge.
- Sim, L. C., & Fulton, J, (2023), Asian Perceptions of Gulf Security (p. 200), New York: Taylor & Francis.
- Trading Econimics, (2023), “Saudi Arabia Imports from China”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// tradingeconomics. com/ saudi- arabia/ imports/chinaTRAJECTORIES, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https://mecouncil.org/publication/china-gcc.
- Wilson, R, (2021), Economic Development in the Middle East (3rd ed.), London: Routledge.
- WTO, (2022), “Trade Profiles 2022”, observed at: 2023/2/06, available at: https:// www. wto. org/ english/ res_ e/ publications_ e/ trade_ profiles22_e.htm.
- Zhang, Tingting & Wang, Dehua, (2021), China-Gulf Oil Cooperation Under the Belt and Road Initiative, Singapore: Springer.
)