Developments in the Middle East
farshid farhadi; Afshin Mottaghi
Abstract
Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical ...
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Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical population is composed of two main categories: documents and elites. The latter is also divided into academic and executive groups. Data collection is also carried out using the library study and field survey methods. The research findings yielded 2 possible scenarios of Escape from Hobbesian and Again the spiral of fear. The general analysis of the scenarios suggests that new season will begin in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A situation whose important feature will be to reduce the intensity of tension and conflict between the two countries in the horizon of 2030. Of course, if the drivers of chaos, such as the negative role of America and Israel, do not prevail.
Mohammad Aryanmanesh; Ahmad Javanshiri; Mohsen Modirshanechi
Abstract
The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the ...
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The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.
