Farhad Ghasemi
Abstract
The deterrence system has developed with the evolution of the international system and has experienced new forms. Facing the unstable and unpredictable challenges of the future, along with asymmetric threats in a nonlinear mechanism, is required to design a new analytical apparatus of deterrence and ...
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The deterrence system has developed with the evolution of the international system and has experienced new forms. Facing the unstable and unpredictable challenges of the future, along with asymmetric threats in a nonlinear mechanism, is required to design a new analytical apparatus of deterrence and its conceptual and theoretical reconstruction. It forms the main purpose of the present article. In this regard, the fundamental question arises as to how in this model of the emerging international system, deterrence can be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically? The author intends to reconstruct it by using the method of deductive inference and focusing on theories of complexity and chaos, especially its basic principles such as the networked structure of the system, nonlinearity, sensitive dependence, and cascading failure. This study focuses on the dynamics of power and the mechanisms that turn it into a threat through nonlinear logic and its mechanisms and the principles emphasized by the theory of complexity and chaos. The author introduces nonlinear network deterrence to the field of strategic studies as an innovative and new concept. This pattern is a start point of the sixth wave of deterrence in International Relations. It will provide a new model for designing Iran's deterrence.
Abstract
Transition in the international system is a prevalent and inevitable process and theories of international relations really pay attention to this. But development of international system and emergence of complex and chaotic system make a change in power transition model and this change requires a new ...
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Transition in the international system is a prevalent and inevitable process and theories of international relations really pay attention to this. But development of international system and emergence of complex and chaotic system make a change in power transition model and this change requires a new explanation. On the other way Iran is among the countries that because of centrality in some regional orders and its internal dynamics is directly affected to these transition models. Therefore this article focuses on these questions that how transition in the complex and chaotic international system is explained and what are threats of Iran in new power transition model and how transition control model is applied by it? In respond to these questions the author believes that transition is directly linked to features of complexity as include bifurcation of order.in this respect author recognizes bifurcated transition as main feature of transition in these systems and suggests bifurcated transition model as new concept to international relations literature. Research method in this article is focused on critical realism and deduction and abduction and based on this, firstly the rules and algorithms of complex and chaotic systems will be characterized and then these rules are combined in new model as bifurcated transition model.
