International Relations
Seyed Hamzeh Safavi; Amirhossein Elhami; Ahmad Ramezani
Abstract
The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time ...
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The main concern of this research is the investigation of China's strategic presence in Southwest Asia in the horizon of 2033 and its effects on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. the research method is mixed (quantitative-qualitative), the research strategy is explorative, its time horizon is medium-term (10 years) and data collection is also mixed (documentary-field). First, by document study and interviews, 67 driving forces of China's strategic presence in 8 parameters of PESTEL+DS (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, defense and security) In addition to 7 global - regional trends were identified. Then, with questionnaire the effectiveness, importance and uncertainty of them was determined (according to the Lawshe coefficient, the validity of 55 driving forces - trends was confirmed and 19 driving forces - trends did not achieve the desired validity). in total, 22 driving forces - trends above the significance and uncertainty threshold values were selected. Then, with Friedman's test, 7 driving forces were selected, and their qualitative states were also extracted. Finally, 4 scenarios with zero inconsistency were drafted and edited with the questionnaire of cross influence matrix and scenario wizard software, and their effects on the national security of IRI were evaluated.
International Relations
Abdul Majid Seifi; hossein delavar
Abstract
As the United States expands its attention to the East in an effort to contain China,Beijing deepens its policy of diversifying its relations in order to reduce the negative effects of the United States'focus on East Asia.Part of this diversification has been leaning towards the strategy of occidentalism ...
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As the United States expands its attention to the East in an effort to contain China,Beijing deepens its policy of diversifying its relations in order to reduce the negative effects of the United States'focus on East Asia.Part of this diversification has been leaning towards the strategy of occidentalism or focusing on West Asia.Among the countries of West Asia,the expansion of China's relations with Saudi Arabia is a good example of China's occidentalism strategy due to its important role in the energy market and its influence on a wide range of Islamic and Arab states.In this regard, the main question of this research is what is the position of occidentalism in China's Strategic behavior?How is the position of Saudi Arabia defined in this occidentalism strategy?The findings of the research show that due The state of power distribution in the international system and the creation of new opportunities in the areas of need for energy resources,Countering the expansion of US influence, and initiatives such as the New Silk Road,the position of occidentalism in China's Strategic behavior has been strengthened and Saudi Arabia has a key position in this strategy.The article is done using historical research method with descriptive-analytical approach and explanatory method
International Relations
Fariborz Arghavani Pirsalami; Ali Dehghan
Abstract
Introduction Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the ...
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Introduction Traditionally, the strategic and tactical communications of the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—both before and after gaining independence in the 1970s—have predominantly adhered to Western approaches and attitudes. Notably, there has been a significant shift in the foreign policy and economic perspectives of the member states. This shift is characterized by an increased focus on fostering economic–political interactions with the Asian super-region, particularly the East Asian subregion (e.g., Japan and China). This shift is evident in collaborative mega-projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s Arab Policy Paper, and increasing relations in different fields. The new policy reflects a discernible shift in discourse and a departure from purely Western perspectives, heralding a transition to emerging economic and political views within the Asian super-region, while maintaining relations with Western powers, such as the United States. The present study aimed to examine the political–economic factors accelerating the Asianization of the GCC members and steering them towards new Asian partners. The central question is: What political–economic factors have contributed to the Asianization of the Persian Gulf and the shift of focus of GCC members towards Asian partners? The article posits that the shift in the foreign policy of GCC members can be attributed to the influence of various factors associated with individual, societal, and governmental levels, as well as the factors relating to roles and the structure of the international system.Theoretical FrameworkIt seems that a multi-causal explanation of how the GCC countries engage with emerging Asian powers, as well as their gradual foreign policy shift from the Western block towards Eastern powers, necessitates an approach that takes into account both macro and micro perspectives. To conduct a multi-causal explanation of Asianism in foreign policy actions and behaviors of GCC states, the present research integrated macro-level analytical components, such as the influence of the international structure, and the micro-level factors such as the roles played by leaders, governments, and society. Given its inclusivity and theoretical breadth, the theoretical framework could offer more analytical possibilities to address almost every component and factor involved in Asianization of the Persian Gulf.Materials and MethodsTo address the research question and test the hypothesis, the study relied on the descriptive–analytical method and causal inference, adopting a multi-causal approach at both micro and macro levels. Results and DiscussionThe Asianization of the Persian Gulf region, influenced by various political–economic requisites, stands out as the most pivotal political and diplomatic shift experienced by the Arab countries in the region. The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked a transition from a bipolar to a multipolar international system. Amid the struggle of the Western bloc for supremacy during the Cold War, Asia embarked on a decisive path of growth and prominence in the 1960s and 1970s, diverging from the prevailing Western current. As an ancillary consequence in the international scene, regionalism has emerged in Asia, with a focus on East Asian actors. With the rise of the emerging pole of power in East Asia over recent decades, the Asian super-region is actively working to shape the new international order and extra-regional agendas, leveraging increased economic power and the ability to shape the discourse at the international level. The economic rise of China, alongside Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, which accounted for a third of the world’s gross domestic product in 2000, heralded the participation of the Asian super-region in the international order. These developments gave rise to Asianism as an alternative to the Western framework as well as a successful model of economic development at both regional and extra-regional levels—which could expand the influence and reach of Asian countries in shaping political agendas and the then new international order. Therefore, Asianization can be viewed as a transitional process that includes the divergence of governments at regional and international levels from the dominant Western current in political, economic, cultural, and military arenas, leading to the increased role and dominance of Asian alternatives over recent decades.The research findings highlight that beyond historical interactions in cultural, energy, commercial, and military areas, several factors have contributed to the Asianization of the GCC members. The factors include a generational shift among the GCC leaders, the necessity of fostering a productive economy to ensure the survival and legitimacy of the Persian Gulf states, and global developments in the international structure such as the acceleration of power shift from the West to the East, the remarkable rise of China, and the need for regional balance. In recent years, these factors have resulted in the stabilization and acceleration of the Asianization among the GCC member states. Notably, the contribution of the international structure is significantly more influential than other variables. The ongoing transition and structural changes within the international system have not only shaped the evolving attitudes of new GCC leaders towards economic functionalism and international cooperation but also imposed certain requirements at the reginal and international levels that could further propel the Asianization process. The latter include alliances and coalitions with Eastern powers while balancing against Iran. The variable of structural changes even becomes more significant when considering its constitutive role in shaping the future of Gulf–Asian relations.ConclusionCurrently, the process of Asianization in the Persian Gulf is intertwined with the broader global trend of Asianization. Nevertheless, it appears that the GCC countries will continue to consider their relationships with the US and the West as crucial, particularly in military-cum-security domains where they largely rely on the US and Western partners. However, the increasing economic and political dependence on the East is influenced by evolving requirements, suggesting that international–regional connections will ultimately lay the foundation for the all-round dominance of Eastern powers, such as China, over the Western and security configuration of the Persian Gulf.
International Relations
Mahin Nazari; Shafiee Shafiee; Nafiseh Vaez
Abstract
Introduction In the post-Cold War era, the international system continues to undergo a state of transition. In the emerging geopolitical landscape, the West Asia, and specifically the Persian Gulf region, occupies a unique role in the policy of major powers (e.g., the USA and China), thanks to its special ...
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Introduction In the post-Cold War era, the international system continues to undergo a state of transition. In the emerging geopolitical landscape, the West Asia, and specifically the Persian Gulf region, occupies a unique role in the policy of major powers (e.g., the USA and China), thanks to its special geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic significance, alongside its stable oil and gas reserves. China, as a growing East Asian country, has increasingly directed its focus towards strategic regions, such as the Persian Gulf, in recent decades. This shift is driven by China’s growing need to maximize its increasing power. China’s critical need for fossil resources has been a primary driver compelling the Chinese political elite to consider the Persian Gulf as a pivotal region in their foreign policy. To be more specific, since the late 1980s, China has been reliant on oil imports to sustain its economic growth and move up the global power hierarchy. This fundamental issue has, in turn, prompted Beijing to adopt a pragmatic and non-ideological perspective to consider closer collaboration with major energy actors such as the Islamic Republic of Iran (in opposition to Washington) and Saudi Arabia (in alignment with Washington). Relying on a descriptive–analytical approach, the present study endeavored to address the questions of what role China assumes in the economic and political future of the Persian Gulf region, and how it can impact Iran’s national interests.Literature Review In “China–Iran Relations Through the Prism of Sanctions,” Scita (2022) explains how China has dealt with the sanctions imposed on Iran. Scita not only delves into Beijing’s response and approach to the imposed sanctions, but also assesses the extent to which China complies with the these sanctions. The author notably argues that China–Iran relations are influenced by their relations with the US as well as their status in the international arena. In their article titled “Iran, China and the Persian Gulf: An Unfolding Engagement,” Shariatinia and Kermani (2022) address the question of how Iran views China’s growing involvement in the Persian Gulf region, particularly in light of China’s strong ties with Iran’s primary regional competitors.Materials and MethodsNeoclassical realists posit that a country’s ambitions are primarily shaped by the capabilities of its government in the realm of foreign policy, as well as by its position in the international system. They contend that a government’s relative capability in mobilizing domestic resources forms the basis for formulating a balanced strategy in the international scene. In this light, it can be observed that conditions are indeed conducive to China’s economic growth and realization of its potential, owing to the recent significant changes in China’s foreign and domestic policies and the ensuing normalization of relations between this growing Asian country and the capitalist West. China’s vast geographic expanse, a population numbering in billions, the young and large workforce, and efficient management, have enabled China to achieve rapid and substantial economic growth. For over four decades, China has consistently maintained remarkable economic growth, averaging around 8%. However, to sustain the economic growth, China needs access to foreign markets, cheap and abundant raw materials, and notably, energy resources. Focusing on a country’s domestic capacitates and the structure of the international system (i.e., possibilities and limitations), the theory of neoclassical realism can explain the overt and covert competition between Washington and Beijing in the Persian Gulf.Results and Discussion The analysis revealed two scenarios about China’s presence in the Persian Gulf and its impact on Iran. The first scenario pertains to the maintenance of the status quo. In this case, the USA would continue its presence in the Persian Gulf region. If the Arab nations in the Persian Gulf trust the American presence and the alliance commitments, and the US exerts more pressure on its regional partners, it is conceivable that strategic industrial cooperation with China may be halted somehow without further progress. The second scenario revolves around the decline of the US presence in West Asia, including the Persian Gulf region. This essentially signifies the dominance of the Great Power Competition doctrine and the strategic prioritization of the Indo–Pacific region, specifically China, in American foreign policy.ConclusionWhat is particularly noteworthy here is the fact that the nature of the strategic relations between China and the countries in the Persian Gulf has not only placed the US in a strategic quandary in the region but has also significantly influenced Tehran–Beijing relations. Not solely relying on Iran to achieve all its regional objectives, China has tried to diversify and deepen its relations with the Arab countries in the region in order to diversify its energy supply sources. However, this approach does not imply ignoring Iran. China, given its strategic stance, has consistently aimed to maintain the most positive relations possible with Tehran, albeit at a more limited level. The findings point to the conclusion that China’s approach to the Persian Gulf region should not be viewed solely in terms of the energy economy and cooperation in the energy sector. It is also essential to analyze its implications within the context of regional security and solidarity. In fact, the Persian Gulf is recognized both as a focal point for global energy production and distribution, and one of the most unstable parts of the world.
International Relations
Arslan Ghorbani; Hadi Torki; Saeed Mirtorabi; Gholamreza Karimi
Abstract
Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound ...
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Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound understanding of the actions and reactions of countries’ foreign policies in the international system. In this line, the present study aimed to develop a model to gain a better understanding of Iran–China relations. The research sought a clearer insight into Iran–China comprehensive strategic partnership by employing a set of theories at the levels of international system, foreign policy, and domestic scene of policy formulation and decision-making. At the level of international system, it is necessary to consider the convergence between Iran and China in the context of US-led Western hegemony and counter-hegemony. At the level of foreign policy, it is crucial to consider cognitive approaches in foreign policy analysis. At the domestic level, one must take into account Iran’s prevailing economic circumstances and its challenges stemming from the US- imposed sanctions, which have prompted the Look to the East policy. China also seeks to export the surplus of its production and advance the Chinese model through partnerships. Delving into these issues, the present article investigated both theoretical considerations as well as various dimensions of Iran–China relations in practice.Literature ReviewRekabian et al. (2021) assert that Iran and China have actively pursued closer cooperation in regional and international organizations as a countermeasure against Western interventions. Shafiei (2022) posits that China’s comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran is primarily motivated by its own strategic objectives, while Iran engages extensively with China out of its specific needs and requirements. Corneliussen (2020) suggests that the Iran–China agreement has the potential to reshape the strategic and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Figueroa (2022) highlights that Western sanctions stand as the primary hurdle to the realization of the 25-Year Iran–China Agreement and the enhancement of economic ties between the two countries. Scita (2022) argues that Washington is actively attempting to manage the contradictions arising from these roles through continuous mediation efforts. According to Loft et al. (2022), China is actively pursuing control over critical technological and industrial sectors, essential infrastructure, strategic resources, and supply chains.Materials and Methods The present study used a descriptive method to offer an analysis of Iran–China partnership.Results and Discussion The approach taken by Iran and China in establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership can be seen as a form of convergence between the two countries. China, in particular, seeks to advance its own strategic goals through these partnerships. It is also important to recognize that there are shared identity constructs between Iran and China, which can be characterized as the power of ideas evolving within the realist framework in the international system. In addition, this partnership has emerged from a nuanced understanding and recognition of the geopolitical landscape, especially within the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is pursuing its first significant international partnership and agreement in the last century. Beyond addressing domestic needs and fulfilling economic, political, and military requirements, the Iran–China agreement is rooted in a strategic grasp of counter-hegemony as a pivotal factor in forging such agreements.ConclusionTo gain a deeper insight into the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, it is essential to explore various aspects and variables, ranging from domestic factors to the perceptions of their leaders, decision-makers, and policymakers, and to the dynamics of the international system. Comprehending and recognizing the positions held by the leaders of both nations within the international arena can facilitate the identification of national interests, commonalities, differences, and potential conflicts. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China requires an analysis of both domestic and foreign factors and variables. This approach offers valuable insights into the rationale and strategies that underlie the Iran-China partnership. The partnership is shaped not only by domestic and international circumstances but also by the perceptions of decision-makers and authorities in each country. Moreover, the resistance to a third party, such as the US, can exert a significant influence. All of these factors lead to a realist perspective in the international arena, which can contribute to more informed and effective decision-making processes for both countries involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership.
International Relations
Mokhtar Ghasemi; Seied Saeed Mirtorabi Hoseini; Mohammad Vali Modarres; Farideh Mohammad Alipour
Abstract
IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, ...
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IntroductionThe China–Saudi Arabia relations have witnessed significant growth and development from 2011 to 2022. Primarily driven by oil relations, the relations between the two countries have flourished in areas such as trade, investment, technology, and military cooperation. In December 2022, the two countries established the highest level of bilateral ties by signing 34 investment agreements valued at around 30 billion dollars, spanning various sectors such as clean energy, hydrogen production, solar energy, information technology, transportation, medical and housing industries, and building materials factories. Furthermore, China’s oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased from 5 million and 66 thousand barrels per day in 2011 to 10 million and 852 thousand barrels per day in 2020. The figure remained above 10 million barrels during 2022, despite the challenges posed by the COVID–19 pandemic and unfavorable economic conditions. This trend Indicates growing relations between China and Saudi Arabia.China and Saudi Arabia have exchanged a large share of capital in the energy sector. The Saudi active presence in the Chinese oil market has positioned it as China’s largest trade partner in the West Asia and African region. The bilateral investment volume between the two countries stands at approximately 73 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia’s extensive investments aimed at controlling China’s oil import network, refineries, and petrochemical industry, along with its involvement in the plan to double China’s strategic oil reserve, underscore the importance of maintaining China’s energy market for Saudi Arabia. Consequently, given China’s status as the largest energy consumer and Saudi Arabia’s position as the largest oil exporter, both countries possess the requisite capacity to foster cooperation in this field.In addition, Vision 2030 and the One Belt One Road Initiative are strategic factors facilitating the expansion of China–Saudi Arabia relations. In this regard, the two countries have signed comprehensive strategic cooperation agreements, leading to the establishment of the High-Level Joint Committee. During the committee’s second meeting in Riyadh in August 2017, contracts valued at 70 billion dollars were signed. Moreover, an important milestone was reached by signing a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the establishment of a joint investment fund worth 20 billion dollars. Furthermore, Industrial Development Fund, China’s Silk Road Fund, and Everbright Bank were established. These agreements, memoranda, and funds intend to expedite the development of China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Although China is trying to maximize its energy security by distributing its oil imports among different countries (e.g., the US), Saudi Arabia’s consistent share of approximately 20% in recent years remains of utmost significance.Literature ReviewSeveral studies have examined the topics of US energy policy and the development of China–Saudi Arabia relations. However, few works have linked these two phenomena in an analytical manner. The novelty of this article lies in its attempt to bridge this gap and provide an analysis by exploring the interplay between these two issues.Materials and MethodsThis research adopted a mixed methods design, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data. Documents and library resources were used to collect the data. Relying on an examination of research, analytical and statistical texts, the study focused on indexing and defining variables and their influential factors in a bid to conduct an analytical and inferential exploration to elucidate the trends and interrelationships between the independent and dependent variables.ConclusionThe US–Saudi oil relations have witnessed unparalleled growth and encompassed various economic, political, and security sectors in recent decades. Furthermore, to ensure its own growth and development, it is imperative for China to maintain stability and security in the energy sector. This objective can be achieved through effective management of competition and, in certain instances, cooperation with the United States. The ongoing trend of expanding relations between China and Saudi Arabia in the energy sector is unprecedented, solidifying China’s position as a significant competitor to the United States. The growing China–Saudi Arabia relations are driven by the mutual needs in the energy sector and strategic development plans. Yet the present research aimed to analyze China–Saudi Arabia relations with an eye to the US energy policy, relying a neo-mercantilist approach. Consequently, the primary question addressed in this article is: how has the US energy policy during 2011–2022 influenced the dynamics of China–Saudi Arabia relationship. The study was based on the hypothesis that the US energy policy during 2011–2022, characterized by increased oil and shale gas production and a reinforced neo-mercantilist approach in the energy sector, played a crucial role in fostering closer ties between China and Saudi Arabia, primarily in the oil sector, and supported their efforts to broaden mutual cooperation across other fields. The hypothesis was tested through empirical and explanatory methods. The research findings suggest that China–Saudi Arabia cooperation is expected to expand further in the future, while taking into account the sensitivities associated with these relations from the perspective of the United States.
International Relations
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Saeed Shokoohi
Abstract
Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more ...
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Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more important, than the events themselves. Regardless of the actual situation and reality, decision-makers act based on their perception of what is happening. This underscores the crucial role that cognitive and mental factors play in shaping the behavior of actors. When analyzing international political issues, it is necessary to distinguish between the operational milieu and psychological milieu. This is especially important when major or acute issues of the international system are at play, and emotions, nationalism, or ideology come into play. Currently, during Joe Biden’s presidency, the relationship between China and the US is experiencing one of its worst periods, and rhetorical tensions between the two countries have escalated. In this context, the possibility of non-emotional dialogues and understanding significantly has decreased. Instead, both sides are arranging their policies and reactions based on their perceptions of each other’s intentions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the issue of perceptions and misperceptions between these two rival countries.Research QuestionsThis article aimed to analyze how Chinese elites perceive the intentions and policies of American officials towards Beijing. Understanding the perceptions of Chinese elites can shed light on their behavior and reactions to events in the international system for outside observers. For the purposes of this research, Chinese elites refer to influential groups in policymaking and public opinion, including policymakers, university professors, researchers, journalists, and businessmen. Specifically, this study explored Chinese elites’ perceptions of US intentions, Washington’s policies towards Taiwan and India, the rivalry between the two countries, and Beijing’s future role in the international order.Literature ReviewDespite the critical importance of understanding China’s perceptions and misperceptions of US policies and goals, there has been limited research conducted on the topic. Boullenois et al. (2018) published a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, which studied the three distinct perceptions of Trump held by Chinese elites. Kennedy (2007) explored the US policies towards Taiwan and the perceptions of those policies among Chinese elites, while Sinkkonen and Elovainio (2020) surveyed the views of Chinese students and the educated class on the threats posed by America and Japan. Their findings indicated that students who consumed Chinese media for extended periods were more likely to be sympathetic to the media’s narrative of the enmity of Japan and America. In 2015, the Carnegie Institute published an analytical report titled “Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other” (Johnston & Shen, 2015), which analyzed Chinese people’s attitudes towards Americans and themselves, China’s role in international leadership, and the role of American parties in Chinese politics. Similar to the previous studies, the present research aimed to examine Chinese elites’ perceptions of the US policies and intentions and their impact on Beijing’s foreign policy. However, this study innovatively relied on authentic surveys and Chinese sources to extract and analyze the Chinese elites’ views about the US.MethodologyThis research employed the method of directed qualitative content analysis to extract and analyze Chinese elites’ perceptions of US policies and intentions towards Beijing. Directed qualitative content analysis is a deductive approach that begins by determining the variables and key concepts of the research based on a theoretical framework and existing literature. Then, the researcher collects, codes, and analyzes data related to these variables and concepts. In this study, the data related to the variables specified in the conceptual framework was collected from the Chinese elites’ views and interviews, as well as the review of the existing literature in the field. The collected date was then coded, decoded, and analyzed within the conceptual framework. Finally, the study went on to examine the effects of those perceptions on China–US relations. The variables were also categorized based on the items specified in the conceptual framework.ResultsThe research findings indicate that Chinese elites perceive the US as follows: 1) China’s main enemy, 2) China’s identity enemy, 3) China’s main rival in international leadership, 4) China’s main economic and technological competitor, and 5) the challenger to China’s regional power. According to the results, younger elites are less pessimistic than their older counterparts, while businessmen hold a more pessimistic outlook than political or academic elites. Discussion A crucial element in China–US relations is the perception that the window of strategic opportunity is closing. According to the analysis, Chinese decision-makers view the favorable foreign environment as a strategic opportunity for China’s growth. The US was preoccupied with issues in other regions and did not actively seek to curb China, which created a strategic opportunity for China. However, many Chinese strategists now believe that this strategic opportunity is diminishing, and China will face increased pressure going forward. This shift in the strategic environment is likely to alter Beijing’s calculations and approach. These factors have contributed to China’s more assertive and confrontational foreign policy towards the US inrecent years, while attempting to manage the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.ConclusionThe rigorous economic policies imposed by the US on China have led many Chinese experts to perceive that America is in decline while China is on the rise, and this trend cannot be halted in the long term. Additionally, China’s skepticism towards international norms and institutions dominated by the West, particularly the US, has grown. When these norms and institutions impinge on China’s critical interests, Beijing’s distrust and confrontational stance intensify.By observing the US policies, China concludes that the US easily uses international norms and institutions to advance its own interests and resorts to double standards. Deep pessimism towards international norms lies in the realistic view among many Chinese strategists that the international system is ultimately an anarchic system in which the most powerful actors determine the rules. What is important is the relative power of the country and its material capacities.Finally, some US policies have made Chinese elites worry that America may create more problems for China. For example, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions concerning climatic changes, free trade, and arms control has concerned China. Moreover, according to the Chinese, America ignores the trade problems of other countries and blames others for its own problems. Therefore, China considers America a troublesome country. This situation will not only reduce the economicinterdependence between the two countries in the long term, but also intensify the possibility of conflict between the two.
International Relations
hossein delavar; Rashid Recabian
Abstract
Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic ...
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Problem Statement The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic and global spheres to respond to the emerging requirements. This has led scholars to debate the consequences of this balancing model for the decision-making circles of the world states, especially for the US and the international order.Significance and ObjectivesThe present article intended to analyze the prospect of change in the contemporary international order (structural order) by examining whether new poles are emerging in the current international order or not.The Main Question What are the consequences and challenges of China’s behavioral pattern for the United States and the structural international order?Research Hypothesis This research is based on the hypothesis that China’s behavioral pattern presents complex challenges to the US general policy towards China. This points to the uncertainties in predicting the consequences of China’s rise, in which policymakers face challenges in choosing between containment or engagement policy. China’s behavioral pattern is also seen as a reason for changing the structure of the international system and shaping the China–US bipolar order. In this respect, the following two points were suggested and discussed. First, the power gap between China and the United States will become almost equal, resulting in a dual superpower scenario where the United States will lose its superiority over China. Second, the strategic competition between China and the US will be very different from the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. China and the US will continue to cooperate in various fields (e.g., economy), while they may have conflicts in political and military domains.Research Method The present research used the historical research method with a descriptive–analytical and explanatory approach.Theoretical Framework This study used defensive structural realism as its theoretical framework in order to analyze the systemic characteristics of the international order, including the distribution and increase of power, and explain their effects on the behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is considered as the most important variable in the paradigm of structural realism.Kenneth Waltz’s theory of international politics offers a clear example of defensive structural realism. The present article contends that Waltz’s perspective should be taken seriously not only because it is the most accurate or realistic theory, but because it provides useful categories for comprehending reality. For instance, his concept of polarity determination helps to shape the behavioral priorities of countries and structural order of power distribution among units, which can be measured and typically changes in response to shifts in power among major states. Additionally, his focus on some kind of cooperation in the discussion on balance of power is also a valuable analytical category.Article Text Due to the post-Cold War international conditions, China has adopted a macro model of balancing, at domestic and global levels, in its strategic relationships with the US. Domestically, China has focused on building up its internal capabilities, while on the global stage it has pursued soft balancing. China’s balancing strategy in the unipolar world order is a reasonable and pragmatic response to its interests, capabilities, and strategic environment. Like any other government, China seeks to maximize its benefits and minimize losses in the field of foreign relations. Showing a keen awareness of the evolving international system, China has adeptly seized opportunities and confronted challenges. However, this behavioral pattern has important consequences and challenges for the international order, particularly for the US as the dominant pole.The balancing strategy pursued by China has generated complex conditions for decision-makers across the international system, particularly in the US as the superpower. Its most significant impact has been on the mentality of elites and their interpretation of the new realities, which has prompted a need to reassess American foreign policy.China’s behavioral pattern has enabled it to capitalize on broad opportunities and emerge as a decisive player in international politics, with its ongoing quest for power likely to have significant implications for the future of international politics. However, this development is closely tied to America’s position as the dominant pole of the international order, making the strategic relations between the two countries increasingly intertwined. As a result, managing these relations has become the most pressing issue in international politics, with stability and crisis in the global order at stake. As such, analyzing the pattern underlying China’s behavior and its relations with the US is critical for understanding the changing international order and its future trajectory.ConclusionChina is neither an ally nor a partner of the US and does not feel obligated to align its policies with those of America. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not adopt an explicitly adversarial stance towards the US. This has created challenges and consequences for the overall US policy towards China, and introduced uncertainties that pose significant challenges for policymakers in choosing between a policy of containment or engagement. An examination of the challenges posed by China’s behavioral pattern suggests that a combination of containment and engagement policies is more effective in serving American interests when dealing with China. While addressing the concerns of proponents of containment, the hybrid policy also attempts to avoid the pitfalls of mutual hostility, which is a major concern of supporters of engagement. This policy reflects the uncertainty in Washington about China’s future goals and capabilities. However, if China were to pursue regional hegemony or launch an attack on Taiwan, the hybrid policy could shift towards containment. Conversely, if China were to democratize and cooperate, this containment-plus-engagement policy could be replaced by a more cooperative relationship between the two countries.
International Relations
Majid Reza Momeni; Narges Khangol zadeh Sangroodi
Abstract
As two emerging Asian powers, India and China, have tried to expand their relations with Arab Countries of the Persian Gulf through public diplomacy which can be a platform for the realization of the foreign policy goals of these two countries. this study tries to address this important question that ...
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As two emerging Asian powers, India and China, have tried to expand their relations with Arab Countries of the Persian Gulf through public diplomacy which can be a platform for the realization of the foreign policy goals of these two countries. this study tries to address this important question that what are the differences and similarities of public diplomacy between India and China in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf between 2001and2021? The hypothesis in response to this question is that the importance of the concept and position of public diplomacy in order to acquire foreign policy goals and more influence in the region, as well as the use of language, literature and culture are similarities between the two countries; Methods of conducting public diplomacy including the film industry, the Confucius Institute, diaspora activity and the “Belt Road initiative” are the differences of Indo-Chinese public diplomacy. In this study, a comparative method is used to analyze the differences and similarities of public diplomacy between India and China in the Persian Gulf Arab countries. The finding of the research indicates that public diplomacy as the tool of national interests has been in the focus of India and China and this point is important for Iran based on the principle of neighborhood policy.
Majid Sharafkhani; Rahmat Hajimineh; Mohammad Reza Dehshiri
Abstract
From the time of mercantilism onwards, international trade has always been an arena of geopolitical rivalry, and the unipolar international order that emerged after the end of the cold war essentially created a special security architecture in the strategic Middle East so that it could maintain its status ...
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From the time of mercantilism onwards, international trade has always been an arena of geopolitical rivalry, and the unipolar international order that emerged after the end of the cold war essentially created a special security architecture in the strategic Middle East so that it could maintain its status quo. Powers inevitably have to choose between two options to work within the framework or to challenge it. This paper examines the competition between the US and china in the form of strategic hedging and under the global value chain structure. The authors will seek to answer the question: What is china's middle east economic strategy in competition with the US? The research hypothesis is that China's middle East economic strategy in competing with the US is targeted influence through the most effective sections of the international value chain. The research findings are based on its explanatory-analytical method, that in the Middle East look, China according to the United States' efforts to build a unified trade front to counter Beijing's state-owned capitalism and in order to reduce its energy security risk, has focused on technology security at targeting growth in the value chain hierarchy and gaining a foothold at its highest levels.
Mitra Rahnejhad; Tirdad Taghipoor Javi
Abstract
In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence ...
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In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence of China and the European Union in the West Asian region, the question arises as to what effect the economic interests of China and the European Union in this region have on Iran's national security? The main hypothesis is: that: Since China and the European Union have no security competition and at the same time both are important economic players in the world; In the context of extensive US sanctions against Iran, the intersection of the interests of these two supra-regional powers in West Asia and its alignment with the interests of Iran's regional rivals will be a challenge to Iran's national security. This article seeks to answer the question of the article with a comparative view, based on the Copenhagen School of Security.
Hossein Delavar; Mohsen Eslami; Masoud Mousavi Shafaee; Mohammad Hosein Jamshidi
Abstract
One of the distinguishing features of the current international situation is the growth of China as a great power. The growing power of China for protecting of security interests is directly tied to the US international position; As a result, China's strategic engagement with the US is one of the issues ...
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One of the distinguishing features of the current international situation is the growth of China as a great power. The growing power of China for protecting of security interests is directly tied to the US international position; As a result, China's strategic engagement with the US is one of the issues that is essential to understand the future state of international order. This article examines China's pattern of behavior toward the US under the unipolar order system. Hence, the question that the authors have tried to answer with a descriptive-analytical approach is that what pattern governs China's foreign policy to advance its interests, and strategic interactions with the US in the current international order? Findings show that due to the necessity of entangling polarity, economic factor and threat perception, China has adopted a dual pattern of behavior, like the domestic capabilities and external soft balance, in order to advance its strategic interests and interactions with the US. The first concept refers to the continuation of economic efforts along with increasing military capabilities to increase China's relative power. In the second concept, China's internationally balanced behavior toward the United States is considered. This is mostly done through multilateral institutions and economic diplomacy.
saeed mirtorabi; mahtab sari aslani
Abstract
Along with the profound structural changes in China's political economy, its foreign assistance has rapidly increased to a wide range of countries, especially African societies, in the early years of the new century. This phenomenon, as well as many other phenomena associated with the "emergence of China," ...
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Along with the profound structural changes in China's political economy, its foreign assistance has rapidly increased to a wide range of countries, especially African societies, in the early years of the new century. This phenomenon, as well as many other phenomena associated with the "emergence of China," has sparked a lot of controversy about the motives and consequences of this transformation, which has not yet been addressed in our country. In this regard, the present paper, regardless of the implications of this evolution, examines its causes and context by referring to Beijing's motivations as donors and the needs of African societies as recipients in the context of the core question of the article. The hypothesis that the article examines by descriptive-analytic method is that the rapid increase of Chinese foreign aid to African countries in recent years is primarily due to the international requirements for responding to structural changes in China's domestic political economy and the alignment of the needs of African with Beijing foreign assistance. So, it can be predicted that the presence of China in the Africa will continue to increase in the coming years, and foreign aid will continue to be considered by Beijing officials as one of the main means for establishing this wider presence.
Mostafa Maleki
Abstract
Under the influence of political and economic nationalism, competition in the production and distribution of vaccines, and the strengthening of the new discourse of world order, the post-Coronation world is undergoing new developments. In the meantime, it is necessary to study the interaction of these ...
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Under the influence of political and economic nationalism, competition in the production and distribution of vaccines, and the strengthening of the new discourse of world order, the post-Coronation world is undergoing new developments. In the meantime, it is necessary to study the interaction of these developments on the German program in the presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2020, as the first planned European policy after Corona, to understand the effects of this phenomenon. At the same time as chairing the Security Council as a non-permanent member, the presidency has provided a unique opportunity for the country to strengthen its role in Europe and the international arena. Content review of the statements of German officials and their plans in various fields, especially economic and foreign policy, helps the authors of this article to answer the main question: "How and what effects has the Corona crisis had on the Council of Europe?" This descriptive and analytical study concludes that Germany seeks to use "Corona Crisis Management" as an opportunity to repair and strengthen its economic and moral leadership and to strengthen its political position in line with "more responsibility" policies.
Ehsan Fallahi; Nozar Shafiee
Abstract
Since the early of 1980s china has treated according to low profile foreign policy to protect itself from negative consequences of international crisis. Although china is ally of Iran and Russia in Syria but has tended to avoid tensions with opposite sides. Therefore china behavior is somehow against ...
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Since the early of 1980s china has treated according to low profile foreign policy to protect itself from negative consequences of international crisis. Although china is ally of Iran and Russia in Syria but has tended to avoid tensions with opposite sides. Therefore china behavior is somehow against United States and its allies but it is not originated from the china desire to geopolitics competitions. China has not involved in Syria crisis directly but seeking to acquire proper economic position at post crisis era. In this article the researchers try to answer the following question: How has been the china approach in Syria Crisis? How will be the china role in post crisis Syria? The following hypothesis examines in the frame work of soft balancing theory. China has indirectly contributed to balance of power in Syria. But Beijing is more concerned about its economic status in the post-Crisis era, than the political and geopolitical fate of Syria. Evidence of this study shows improving the china role in post crisis era. This article has written by descriptive-analytical method.
Asgar Safari
Abstract
Since 1945, western countries and specially the United States have tried to secure their international interests by establishing international economic institutions, regional security organizations and dissemination of liberal political norms, Known as international liberal order. But in recent years ...
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Since 1945, western countries and specially the United States have tried to secure their international interests by establishing international economic institutions, regional security organizations and dissemination of liberal political norms, Known as international liberal order. But in recent years this order has been challenged by some newly emerged powers such as China. Inabilities in administration of some international affairs such as international order, global economy and terrorism have weakened west position more. This fact has risen an important question: what would be the future of international liberal order and whether we should expect emerge of a new international order as a replacement for liberal order in the future? With the aim of investigating statues of liberal international order in current situation and in the shadow of newly international emerged powers such as China, the article have put two questions forward: what is the view point of China to the current international liberal order and how the county efforts in regional institutional building specially in Central Asia could be analyzed? The finding of the research reveals that Chain is just interested to revise the current order and the country institution building effort is a part of its plan for this revision.
shayan jozani kohan; Shahin Jozani Kohan; Mohammadreza Dehshiri
Abstract
China has mostly the capacity to put under question the politics of United States, because this country possesses important economic power, immense infrastructures and ammunitions, political power and has impact on the countries of East Asia region. Specially, in recent years, China's military modernization ...
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China has mostly the capacity to put under question the politics of United States, because this country possesses important economic power, immense infrastructures and ammunitions, political power and has impact on the countries of East Asia region. Specially, in recent years, China's military modernization has persisted along with its economic growth. Because the United State disregarded East Asia Region during George w. Bush presidency, China intensified its influence in East Asia region and increased its interests and extensive economic interactions with the countries of this region.The present research elaborates on the main discrepancies between Beijing and Washington in East Asia region and on the effect of these discrepancies on their mutual relationship. What is the effect of discrepancies between China and United States on their relations? To answer this question, the authors believe that political, economic and security- military discrepancies, especially during the Obama administration, caused ascending tension between the two countries in regional and international arenas.After explaining the conflicts between China and United States in three main political, economic and security arenas, this article scrutinizes the impact of these conflicts on the relations of these two countries.
Fariborz Arghavani Pirsalami; Morteza Esmaeili; Aboza Behzadi Aghaee
Volume 4, Issue 15 , March 2016, , Pages 95-124
Abstract
Practical and theoretical developments in international politics and the following changes in foreign policy of countries have attracted the cross-regional powers. This paper concentrates on Latin America, raising a question about similarities and differences between the Chines and Iranian approaches ...
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Practical and theoretical developments in international politics and the following changes in foreign policy of countries have attracted the cross-regional powers. This paper concentrates on Latin America, raising a question about similarities and differences between the Chines and Iranian approaches toward this region which traditionally considered US backyard. By comparing the two approaches, results show that although Tehran and Beijing criticize the ongoing international discipline, China focuses on the economic aspects in her relations toward Latin area, but Iran prioritize political-security attitude in this matter. Assessment of capacities and attractions of Latin America and US tendency to the region and the process of deepening relations of the two countries with this region in terms of Ahmadinejad and Hu are parts of this paper which confirms the main idea.
Hossein salimi; Leila Rahmati poor
Volume 3, Issue 11 , April 2015, , Pages 129-160
Abstract
United States as the sole remaining superpower after World War II and the Cold War era, has always tried establishing its hegemony in the world and forcing others into submission and acceptance of its order. Thus, economic development and control of the world energy resources, especially the resources ...
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United States as the sole remaining superpower after World War II and the Cold War era, has always tried establishing its hegemony in the world and forcing others into submission and acceptance of its order. Thus, economic development and control of the world energy resources, especially the resources in the Persian Gulf region is needed for establishing and maintaining its hegemony in the world as well. Hence, insecurity in the region has challenged the hegemony of the U.S. For decades the country's strategy is focused on reducing dependence on energy imports. China is a great power that is trying to improve its position in the global arena. In this way the path chosen by the Chines leaders is economic growth, which is highly depended on the country's energy resources especially the Persian Gulf. So what is considered important to China is energy supply security; but the different strategies of the two countries and its impacts on the Persian Gulf remains a question; the question that this paper will try to answer.
Elahe Kolaeei; Reza Niknam
Volume 3, Issue 11 , April 2015, , Pages 161-182
Abstract
Terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, tackled security system of the U.S. and entered the country into long term and costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Then global financial crises in 2008, led U.S. into an unprecedented stagnation. U.S. critical economy was placed in more vulnerable position than ...
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Terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, tackled security system of the U.S. and entered the country into long term and costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Then global financial crises in 2008, led U.S. into an unprecedented stagnation. U.S. critical economy was placed in more vulnerable position than before. On the other hand China's place in the global economy was promoted and trans-regional influence of the country was developed in these years. This article tries to answer the question that what impact has the china's power seeking in international political economy on the hegemony of the United States, by applying the theory of power displacement and with focus on Power transitions theories. The authors conclude that china's growing power intensified the decline of financial hegemony of United States, but has no significant effect on its political and security power and the United States’ weakness is much related to its macroeconomics.
