mojtaba shariati; Hosein Salimi
Abstract
The Middle East is changing. More actors and factors also influenced its changes, which has added to the complexity of the issues.These undetermined and vague conditions have led to different scenarios, which could figure out the future of the Islamic countries and the Middle East in general. So in this ...
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The Middle East is changing. More actors and factors also influenced its changes, which has added to the complexity of the issues.These undetermined and vague conditions have led to different scenarios, which could figure out the future of the Islamic countries and the Middle East in general. So in this article, this main question is answered, future trends of democracy in the Middle East by 2025, will have what effects on the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran?.In response to the main question, by reviewing the future study of future trends of democracy in the Middle East, a questionnaire was designed within the framework of the theory of constructivism and Delphi method, and was distributed among of experts and specialists. Then, by guiding with leadership team, the Delphi questionnaire data were analyzed. Then the results and opinions of the experts and respondents to the questions were analyzed qualitatively and four main scenarios were obtained which includes the rule of religious democracy, secularism, Salafism and the military, autocratic monarchy and ethnic governments.Finally, the most favorable scenario and the most threatening scenario for the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran were detected and solutions presented.
behrooz daylamsalehi; Gholamreza Saebi
Abstract
The core Obama’s foreign policy, specifically in his second term, was to solve the country’s international crisis in the Middle East and also to solve Iran’s nuclear issue. White House, in harmony with Europe, tried hard to put pressure on Iran, taking advantage of sanctions to create ...
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The core Obama’s foreign policy, specifically in his second term, was to solve the country’s international crisis in the Middle East and also to solve Iran’s nuclear issue. White House, in harmony with Europe, tried hard to put pressure on Iran, taking advantage of sanctions to create and expand civil unrest in Iran in order to undermine legitimacy of the government. It is clear that the root of the Iranian-Western conflicts cannot be reduced to Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, religious ideology of Iran’s Islamic system is the main reason of this controversy. Meanwhile, presence of Israel in the region and the role of other countries specifically Arab countries should not be neglected. The hypothesis of this paper is: US foreign policy in Iran’s nuclear issue follows rational, organizational and bureaucratic models of decision making and orchestrated toward interaction of national interests.
