Mitra Rahnejhad; Tirdad Taghipoor Javi
Abstract
In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence ...
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In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence of China and the European Union in the West Asian region, the question arises as to what effect the economic interests of China and the European Union in this region have on Iran's national security? The main hypothesis is: that: Since China and the European Union have no security competition and at the same time both are important economic players in the world; In the context of extensive US sanctions against Iran, the intersection of the interests of these two supra-regional powers in West Asia and its alignment with the interests of Iran's regional rivals will be a challenge to Iran's national security. This article seeks to answer the question of the article with a comparative view, based on the Copenhagen School of Security.
Abstract
The emergence of Salafi Takfiri groups as unofficial actors has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the West Asian region and its forms of conflict. Many questions and ambiguities surrounding the prospects of the West Asia region in the light of the existence of terrorist Takfiri groups ...
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The emergence of Salafi Takfiri groups as unofficial actors has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the West Asian region and its forms of conflict. Many questions and ambiguities surrounding the prospects of the West Asia region in the light of the existence of terrorist Takfiri groups and the future of the conflicts and crises of the region can take place at the expense of these groups from the stage of equations. In the present study, we have used scenarios (desirable, probable, and possible) using future research techniques, including the process of research (quality analysis of the process), and the analysis of the propulsion, as forces of change and through the interaction of trends and drivers. The extracted scenarios are as follows: a) Desirable scenarios: 1. The first favorable scenario: the total destruction of takfiri groups and the formation of democratic regimes in conflict-stricken countries based on the division of power model; 2. The second best scenario: the temporary repression of Takfiri groups and the rule of the republican rule model (Presidential Bashar al-Assad's presence); (b) Possible scenarios: 1. Possible scenario: Takfiri withdrawal from the formation of a government; but the internal division of power among ethnic groups and religions; 2. The probable scenario II: the disintegration of Syria; Iraq, Libya and other countries involved in the crisis and the formation of the game New expensive in the field of regional equilibrium (Kurdish state formation in the region); (c) Possible scenario: advancing Takfiri forces claiming the Islamic state and conquering more territories.
