Developments in the Middle East
farshid farhadi; Afshin Mottaghi
Abstract
Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical ...
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Saudi Arabia, as a country that plays a major role in the political equations of Regional order of West Asia, has defined Islamic Republic of Iran as its primary rival in the region. This applied research aims to draw the future scenarios of Saudi Arabia toward Iran was based on the GBN method. The statistical population is composed of two main categories: documents and elites. The latter is also divided into academic and executive groups. Data collection is also carried out using the library study and field survey methods. The research findings yielded 2 possible scenarios of Escape from Hobbesian and Again the spiral of fear. The general analysis of the scenarios suggests that new season will begin in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A situation whose important feature will be to reduce the intensity of tension and conflict between the two countries in the horizon of 2030. Of course, if the drivers of chaos, such as the negative role of America and Israel, do not prevail.
International Relations
Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Abstract
During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two ...
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During the years 2015-2023, we can witness growing and stable relations between Iran and Russia. The structural components have a limiting and controlling role in some periods, and in others as a catalyst, they have facilitated and accelerated the development process of the relations between the two countries. Two structural components in the foreign policy of the two countries have affected the dynamics of bilateral relations. First, the JCPOA, in which Russia played an important role. The second component was the Ukraine crisis in 2022, and Iran’s role has been noticed by analysts. The development model of Iran-Russia relations since 2015 is influenced by these two components. In this article, we seek to answer the main question and problem, which structural components have affected the development model of relations between Iran and Russia in this period? Our primary hypothesis to answer the main issue of the article is the JCPOA as a structural factor affecting Iran's foreign policy and the Ukraine war 2022 as a structural factor affecting Russia's foreign policy. The type of encounter of two countries with the structural factors affecting the other, has led to proliferation of these relations
Developments in the Islamic world
Saeed Sorkhi khozani; Ali Abedi Renani; Ali Karbalaie Pazouki
Abstract
Introduction Each Islamic denomination follows its respective beliefs to forge connections with other ...
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Introduction Each Islamic denomination follows its respective beliefs to forge connections with other Islamic denominations and even non-Islamic religions. Religion plays a pivotal role in shaping their comprehension of Self, Other, and the approach towards communicating with others, ranging from acceptance to excommunication. In other words, religious beliefs constitute a foundation that governs the relations between different religions. A precise and nuanced understanding of diverse Islamic denominations is essential for avoiding the one-size-fits-all perspective that may see the diverse groups in the same way. Such an understanding paves the way for recognizing historical, religious, and social distinctions, facilitating more informed and effective approaches to interact with different religious groups.The teachings of the Quran and the prophetic tradition prohibit sectarian conflicts, underscoring the unity and convergence among followers of different Islamic denominations. The empathy and convergence seem to be crucial, especially considering the constant efforts by the Western world to sow discord and division within Islamic countries. For example, the establishment of ISIS in the Middle East involved the Muslim nations, with the ultimate aim of ensuring security for Israel. Recently, the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan has made it essential to reassess their foundational beliefs, laying the groundwork for fostering more symbiotic relations with them.The Deoband school of thought is considered one of the influential Islamic denominations in the recent developments of the region. Deobandis adhere to the Hanafi school of Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh) and Maturidism as a school of Islamic theology. The Deobandi movement emerged with the purpose of opposing the British East India Company. Due to their concerted efforts, Deobandis rapidly spread across the Indian subcontinent, later establishing a significant base in Pakistan and Afghanistan and founding religious schools and educational centers there. The Taliban group is one the movements developed out of the adherence to the religious beliefs of the Deoband school of thought. Against this backdrop, the present research aimed to examine three key issues: the fundamental religious beliefs of the Taliban, the distinction between the Taliban and Salafism, and suggestions for Iran’s strategic foreign policy towards these groups with an eye to their religious beliefs.Literature ReviewAuthored by Khalil Ahmad al-Saharanpuri, the book Al-Muhannad 'ala al-Mufannad [The Sword on the Disproved] not only provides responses to the inquiries posed by Wahhabi scholars but also elaborates on the beliefs of the scholars from Darul Uloom Deoband. The book unveils the conspiracies of adversaries and elucidates the true teachings of the venerable figures of Maturidism. The collection of essays titled Maghalat Al-Kawtheri [Kawtheri’s Essays] includes miscellaneous essays written by Muhammad Zahid al-Kawthari. The collection contains some essays that oppose the Wahhabi thought. While dismissing Wahhabism, al-Kawthari delves into the core beliefs of the Deobandi school of thought. In the article titled “Taliban and Deobandism” (2018), Mohammad Bagher Hassani examined the relationship between the Taliban and the Deobandi school. The author compared some Deobandi concepts with Wahhabism and other Sunni sects, highlighting their shared aspects as well as distinctions. Hassani’s descriptive–analytical research also focused on Islamic groups, such as the Taliban, which are recognized for their adherence to the theological doctrines of Maturidism.In addition to comparative studies, there are also reference works on the theological beliefs of Maturidism and Wahhabism. A notable work is Kitab al-Tawhid [Book of Monotheism] by Abu Mansur al-maturidi, considered the canonical source for followers of the maturidi school of theology. Abu Mansur al-Maturidi refers to imitation in belief and faith as a wrong approach, focusing on the logical and narrative-based examination of the theological foundations of Maturidism. The book Minhaj al-Sunnah al-Nabawiyyah [The Path of Sunnah of the Prophet] was written by ibn Taymiyyah, a prominent Hanbali scholar considered as a founder and iconic figure of Salafism. The book deals with religious beliefs as well as several jurisprudential opinions and fatwas of Ibn Taymiyyah, including his unconventional views on refraining from visiting graves, and resorting to blessings and supplications. In addition, the article titled “Investigation of the Factors Affecting the Change in Iran’s Political–Defense Approach Towards the Taliban” (Parizad & Shahrestani, 2022) examined Iran’s foreign policy strategies concerning the Taliban group, highlighting the role of environmental factors and global structures.Materials and MethodsThe present study used the library method to collected and analyze the data.Results and DiscussionAccording to the research results, the Taliban originated from Maturidi theology and Deobandi religious centers in Pakistan, and Salafism has its roots in the Wahhabi theology. Despite common origins, there are fundamental differences between the Taliban and salafism, manifesting in salient theological and religious issues such as monotheism in worship, intercession, and the stance towards the shia. Notably, the Taliban, in contrast to Salafism, exhibits a broader, universalist approach to acceptance of and interactions with other groups, particularly the Shia. According to the religious teachings, unity and convergence are not merely tactical considerations but fundamental principles of the Islamic faith. Therefore, the foreign policy strategy of Islamic states should be aligned with religious teachings. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as an Islamic state, seems to have anchored its foreign policy on this principle. Considering geopolitical borders and ideological considerations, Iran has established positive relations with the Taliban group, showing tolerance in border conflicts and water disputes. Iran’s foreign policy towards the Taliban is characterized by Iran’s concern about the formation of Salafi and Wahhabi groups in Afghanistan. Therefore, given the doctrinal differences between these groups, Iran views the relations with the Taliban as appropriate to prevent the establishment of Salafi groups in its eastern neighbor. Moreover, Iran’s foreign policy can pursue cooperation and relations with the Taliban against a common adversary, namely the United States.ConclusionA comprehensive understanding of Islamic intellectual and religious schools is crucial to reach an accurate interpretation of the foundations of Islam. Knowledge about different schools of thought can offer a better understanding of religious teachings, facilitating a more accurate interpretation of religious doctrines and beliefs. Moreover, as indicated by the findings, such an understanding can aid in devising foreign policy strategies in dealing with diverse religious groups.
International Relations
Arslan Ghorbani; Hadi Torki; Saeed Mirtorabi; Gholamreza Karimi
Abstract
Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound ...
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Introduction In humanities, especially within the field of international relations, the application of theory to the analysis of events or phenomena in foreign policy and the international system is widely recognized as a salient approach. The application of theories allows us to gain a more profound understanding of the actions and reactions of countries’ foreign policies in the international system. In this line, the present study aimed to develop a model to gain a better understanding of Iran–China relations. The research sought a clearer insight into Iran–China comprehensive strategic partnership by employing a set of theories at the levels of international system, foreign policy, and domestic scene of policy formulation and decision-making. At the level of international system, it is necessary to consider the convergence between Iran and China in the context of US-led Western hegemony and counter-hegemony. At the level of foreign policy, it is crucial to consider cognitive approaches in foreign policy analysis. At the domestic level, one must take into account Iran’s prevailing economic circumstances and its challenges stemming from the US- imposed sanctions, which have prompted the Look to the East policy. China also seeks to export the surplus of its production and advance the Chinese model through partnerships. Delving into these issues, the present article investigated both theoretical considerations as well as various dimensions of Iran–China relations in practice.Literature ReviewRekabian et al. (2021) assert that Iran and China have actively pursued closer cooperation in regional and international organizations as a countermeasure against Western interventions. Shafiei (2022) posits that China’s comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran is primarily motivated by its own strategic objectives, while Iran engages extensively with China out of its specific needs and requirements. Corneliussen (2020) suggests that the Iran–China agreement has the potential to reshape the strategic and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Figueroa (2022) highlights that Western sanctions stand as the primary hurdle to the realization of the 25-Year Iran–China Agreement and the enhancement of economic ties between the two countries. Scita (2022) argues that Washington is actively attempting to manage the contradictions arising from these roles through continuous mediation efforts. According to Loft et al. (2022), China is actively pursuing control over critical technological and industrial sectors, essential infrastructure, strategic resources, and supply chains.Materials and Methods The present study used a descriptive method to offer an analysis of Iran–China partnership.Results and Discussion The approach taken by Iran and China in establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership can be seen as a form of convergence between the two countries. China, in particular, seeks to advance its own strategic goals through these partnerships. It is also important to recognize that there are shared identity constructs between Iran and China, which can be characterized as the power of ideas evolving within the realist framework in the international system. In addition, this partnership has emerged from a nuanced understanding and recognition of the geopolitical landscape, especially within the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is pursuing its first significant international partnership and agreement in the last century. Beyond addressing domestic needs and fulfilling economic, political, and military requirements, the Iran–China agreement is rooted in a strategic grasp of counter-hegemony as a pivotal factor in forging such agreements.ConclusionTo gain a deeper insight into the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, it is essential to explore various aspects and variables, ranging from domestic factors to the perceptions of their leaders, decision-makers, and policymakers, and to the dynamics of the international system. Comprehending and recognizing the positions held by the leaders of both nations within the international arena can facilitate the identification of national interests, commonalities, differences, and potential conflicts. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China requires an analysis of both domestic and foreign factors and variables. This approach offers valuable insights into the rationale and strategies that underlie the Iran-China partnership. The partnership is shaped not only by domestic and international circumstances but also by the perceptions of decision-makers and authorities in each country. Moreover, the resistance to a third party, such as the US, can exert a significant influence. All of these factors lead to a realist perspective in the international arena, which can contribute to more informed and effective decision-making processes for both countries involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership.
Public policy
Amir mohammad Izadi; Hosein Harsij
Abstract
IntroductionPolitical corruption is one of the crucial concerns in today’s political landscape that has captured the attention of researchers. Political corruption refers to the breach of public norms by those in political power, either to further personal interests or to protect group interests. ...
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IntroductionPolitical corruption is one of the crucial concerns in today’s political landscape that has captured the attention of researchers. Political corruption refers to the breach of public norms by those in political power, either to further personal interests or to protect group interests. It entails the manipulation of political institutions and internal regulations, thereby impacting government bodies and the overall political system. Consequently, political corruption is often anticipated to result in institutional deterioration. However, since the 1980s, globalization has influenced the way through which categories of modern politics, including political corruption, are addressed. In the context of globalization, the examination of political corruption transcends the confines of the nation–state and should be viewed as a global concern.Literature ReviewA review of primary studies concerning the impact of globalization on political corruption reveals a spectrum of pessimistic and optimistic opinions among scholars. Optimists argue that globalization diminishes political corruption, while pessimists contend that it, in fact, increases political corruption. However, recent research indicates that the discrepancy between these viewpoints stems from their differing understandings of the relationship between globalization and political corruption. By adhering to a linear approach, both groups attempt to find the relationship between these variables, and consequently prescribe or discourage further engagement with globalization to exploit opportunities and avoid threats. To resolve this discrepancy, new studies, adopting a non-linear approach, posit that social and political globalization serves as a significant precursor to corruption. Economic globalization is perceived as both a prelude to and a consequence of varying levels of corruption.Materials and MethodsAs a quantitative research, the present study employed regression analysis as a highly practical quantitative method. Specifically, it utilized polynomial regression, which is supported by recent studies as well as by the secondary data sourced from the V-Dem Institute and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute.Results and Discussion According to the regression analysis, the normative nature of political corruption necessitates a redefinition of public and private interests at both the societal and governmental elite levels if the aim is to enhance the social dimension of globalization. The coefficient of the political dimension indicated that increased globalization can lead to a reduction in political corruption as global pressures compel the country to undertake structural and institutional reforms, including safeguarding property rights, enhancing transparency in decision-making processes, and improving the quality of public services. However, the results showed that there is no linear relationship between economic dimension of globalization and political corruption. Instead, the economic dimension influences the impact of other dimensions on political corruption in a non-linear, curved manner. As this dimension increases, political corruption decreases up to a certain point, but beyond that threshold, corruption levels begin to rise.One of the ideals and goals that emerged during the formation of the Islamic Revolution in Iran was the fight against the political corruption that had been rampant during the Pahlavi era, which required a revolutionary change as the only means to eliminate corruption. However, following the success of the Revolution, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran inherited a political, governance, and administrative system that later fell into the depths of various forms of corruption. The present research aimed to address a fundamental question: What is the impact of Iran’s engagement with globalization on the level of political corruption in the country? The necessity of conducting such studies arises from the importance of understanding the effect of globalization on various political issues with the ultimate aim of leveraging the benefits and avoiding the threats. Considering Iran’s economic structure, the system of international sanctions against Iran, and the normative nature of political corruption, it is expected that the various dimensions of globalization may have a detrimental impact on political corruption in Iran. Conclusion In conclusion, given the concurrent influence of different dimensions of globalization on political issues, policymakers are recommended to follow a non-linear approach to leverage the opportunities and avoid the threats of globalization.
Political Sociology
Sara Sharifpour; Noori Hadi; Mohammad Reza Gholami Shekarsaraee
Abstract
IntroductionThe present research deals with the discrepancy between the hypothesized theory of the Asiatic mode of production and the empirical evidence from the Qajar era. Specifically, it explored whether the state–class relationship in the Qajar era can accurately be characterized as oriental ...
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IntroductionThe present research deals with the discrepancy between the hypothesized theory of the Asiatic mode of production and the empirical evidence from the Qajar era. Specifically, it explored whether the state–class relationship in the Qajar era can accurately be characterized as oriental despotism (or an Asian state), or it reflects a state where the power of the king was limited by influential classes, such as the clergy, affluent merchants, local nobility, provincial rulers, princes, large landowners, and tribal chiefs. The central focus of this research was to determine whether the Qajar state enjoyed power concentration or operated within a kind of power plurality. In this respect, the central question is: Was the power of the Qajar state limited by social classes, or did it wield absolute and supra-class authority?Theoretical FrameworkThe study examined the state–class relationship through the lens of Karl Marx’s theory of the state. Marx’s perspective on the state can be categorized into three distinct models: the powerless state, the state with relative power, and the state with absolute power. Applying these three models, the present study analyzed the dynamics of the state–class relationship during the Qajar era.According to Marx’s instrumentalist theory, the concept of a class state suggests that both the form and essence of the state are contingent upon prevailing classes. While the state may exhibit diverse variations and characteristics in different historical contexts, it fundamentally relies on classes. In all instances, the state functions as a dependent entity and a tool of the ruling class. Marx presented his theory of the Bonapartist state in The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte (1852) and The Class Struggles in France 1848-1850 (1850). Marx acknowledges that the state possesses a certain degree of independent power or relative autonomy from the ruling class. According to Marx and Engels, the absence of private land ownership and the existence of large-scale state-controlled water facilities, despite their apparent contradiction, are the defining characteristics of the Asian state, in which the autocratic state machinery exercises control over the production surplus and serves not only as the central apparatus for oppression but also as a tool for economic exploitation at the disposal of the ruling class. In such a setting, “the state reigns supreme.”As evident, Marx’s triadic model of the state analyzes the state–class relationship at three levels. The model of class state portrays a state that lacks power and relative autonomy from the ruling class. The Bonapartist state enjoys relative autonomy from the ruling class, while the Asian state wields absolute power and autocratic authority over all societal classes. The present research used Marx’s triadic model as the analytical framework to examine the state–class relationship during the Qajar era.Materials and Methods This research employed a historical case study approach, which involves gathering extensive information through various data collection methods over an extended temporal span. The collected information is systematically analyzed with the explicit objective of deriving theoretical insights. The documentary research method within the framework of recorded or written history was used to collect the relevant information. There are three strategies for data analysis: pattern matching, explanation building, and time series analysis. Given the descriptive nature of the current case study, the pattern matching method, specifically the type of rival explanations, was utilized. This method involves comparing the historical pattern derived from experience with the predicted theoretical pattern.Results and DiscussionThe central question addressed in the present article pertains to the extent of the Qajar state’s power; whether it was constrained by social classes or characterized by absolute and supra-class authority. According to the research findings, the influential clerics, relying on their social support base, exerted their influence over the state. This influence manifested openly through the issuance of fatwas in significant events such as the Russo-Persian Wars, the Persian Tobacco Protest, or the Constitutional Movement. Furthermore, the clerics often succeeded in establishing common interests through their relationships with statesmen, thereby exerting influence over high-ranking state officials. Notably, clerics comprised 20% of the social composition of the first parliament, which signifies their official entry into the power structure of the time.Prominent and affluent merchants, particularly in the first half of the 19th century, wielded influence by fulfilling the financial requirements of the state and cooperating closely with it. However, their role evolved in the second half of the 19th century marked by events like the Tobacco Protests and Monsieur Naus, when they joined the protesters and disrupted the country’s economic cycles due to conflicting interests. This class emerged as one of the most influential groups in Iran during the Qajar era. With the establishment of the Constituent Assembly, they secured a significant one-third of the parliament composition.The influential patriarchs of tribes and the heads of important clans held significant sway due to their independent geographic position and economic resources, military strength, and provision of manpower to the Qajar army. This enabled them to exert influence and even engage in direct conflicts with the state, such as during the Constitutional Movement.Given Iran’s population structure, which predominantly comprised farmers, the large landowners assumed the role of quasi-sovereigns within the territories under their ownership. Their possession of extensive estates, personal military forces, and substantial incomes derived from landownership, combined with a weak bureaucracy and an inefficient tax system, granted them considerable autonomy in areas under their influence.ConclusionAccording to the findings, it becomes highly challenging to conceive of the Qajar state as the entity possessing absolute power, as Marx suggests as the primary characteristic of the Asian state. In the Qajar Iran, influential social classes, including the clergy, affluent merchants, local nobility, provincial rulers, princes, large landowners, and tribal chiefs, served as intermediary layers that limited the state’s power and prevented the establishment of a supreme master or an absolute ruler. Moreover, the Qajar state, originating from the Qajar tribe, was not practically reliant on the tribe itself or other social classes, so the Qajar state actually employed various methods, such as granting state positions or making discord between tribes, to control and even suppress them. Accordingly, the Qajar state cannot be categorized as a mere instrument of the ruling class or an entity with absolute power. It does not align with the concept of a class state or even a supra-class state. Instead, enjoying power and relative autonomy from the dominant class, the Qajar state could create a relative balance between social forces, leading to its characterization as a Bonapartist state.
Political Sociology
Mohsen Mohammadi Khanghahi; Abbas Keshavarz Shokri; Gafari Zahed
Abstract
IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain ...
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IntroductionSocial dissatisfaction in Iran, particularly over the past decade, has been widespread and profound, as confirmed by national surveys. A review of the last four decades reveals the emergence of social discontent and political unrest in various manifestations and at different times. In certain instances, such as in 2009, the protests have posed a threat to the survival and stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, an analysis of the frequency and duration of social protests demonstrates the growth and prevalence of social dissatisfaction within Iranian society.Social dissatisfaction can manifest itself through apathy and non-participation, as seen in the decline in political participation during the Islamic Council and presidential elections in in the recent decade, particularly in 2019 and 2021. A review of relevant research shows a lack of deep insight and comprehensive understanding of social dissatisfaction as a multi-faceted issue in Iran, which can be a major obstacle to insightful policymaking for successful and cost-effective management of social dissatisfaction.The present research aimed to analyze and elucidate the underlying factors that contribute to social dissatisfaction, and subsequently develop strategies for effectively managing and mitigating the issue within Iranian society. The objective can ultimately enhance the efficiency of the decision-making process and policymaking in order to effectively address social dissatisfaction and protests. Accordingly, the main research questions are: What are the causal factors underlying social dissatisfaction in the Islamic Republic of Iran? and what are the potential solutions to solve the issue?Materials and MethodsThe present research employed a mixed methods research design. The documentary analysis method was utilized to examine and analyze various perspectives and approaches, as well as to investigate the evolution of the phenomenon of social dissatisfaction in Iranian society. Moreover, the method of causal layered analysis (CLA) was used to analyze and explain the underlying causes that contribute to social dissatisfaction in Iran.This method incorporates the examination of four distinct layers: the litany, social/systemic causes, discourse/worldview, and myth/metaphor. The litany layer represents the surface level, encompassing the most evident and objective aspects of the future. The social/systemic layer involves exploring the technological, social, economic, historical, political, and environmental causes associated with the subject matter. The discourse layer encompasses efforts to comprehend linguistic, cultural, and social structures that shape and pertain to the future. Lastly, the myth/metaphor layer delves into the investigation and exploration of schemas, mental images, and underlying narratives.The researchers collected the data by administering an open semi-structured questionnaire to a total of 10 experts. The collected data was subjected to review by 5 additional experts, who were asked to confirm the identified causes and related factors with the ultimate aim of ensuring the validity and reliability of the data. Based on the degree of consensus and frequency, the identified causes were categorized into three levels: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. Furthermore, the researchers developed scenarios of social dissatisfaction by sharing the collected data with 5 experts, who were requested to envision future dissatisfaction scenarios in the 2031 horizon across three categories: desirable, possible, and probable. Results and DiscussionAfter conducting a review of relevant literature and collecting insights from 10 experts, the present study examined and analyzed the causes and factors contributing to social dissatisfaction the Islamic Republic in three layers: systemic, discursive, and metaphorical. At the systemic level, various factors were identified and discussed, including the prevalence of poverty, increasing discrimination, widening class gap and increasing Gini coefficient, evolving societal lifestyles, widespread feelings of deprivation, unjust distribution of national resources, and unsustainable development, etc.In the discursive layer, various causes and factors were identified and analyzed, including the historical mistrust towards the political sphere, the duality of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Shia culture and thought, the modern thought and worldview, the discourse of transformation, the discourse of Western development, and the alienation of political governance, etc. Moving to the metaphorical/mythical layer, factors such as the portrayal of the government as a bandit in Iranian culture, the usurpation of power by the state, the metaphor of the Alavi government, and historical transformation-seeking were recognized and discussed as influential elements in the development of social dissatisfaction.Moreover, in accordance with expert opinions, three scenarios (desirable, possible, and probable) were formulated and constructed regarding the future of social dissatisfaction in Iran. In the desirable scenario, effective reformist measures and the realization of the right to protest would lead to a reduction in social dissatisfaction, putting protests within a legally recognized framework. In the possible scenario, considering the continuation and exacerbation of underlying causes of dissatisfaction, we would witness the accumulation of social dissatisfaction and the emergence of intermittent episodes of violent social protests. Finally, according to the probable scenario, civil disobedience would arise as a result of the prevailing security-focused approach and the rising costs of engaging in protests.ConclusionSocial dissatisfaction remains a significant issue in Iran, posing considerable challenges to political stability and national security. Effective policymaking and management concerning social dissatisfaction initially requires a comprehensive and accurate understanding of this complex issue. In this line, the present study used the CLA method as an effective approach to examine different causal layers and drivers and their impact on social dissatisfaction. The results indicated that the Islamic Republic of Iran aims to move towards its desired scenario, which involves reducing dissatisfaction and implementing a persuasive and systematic approach to managing social protests. However, given the current circumstances, attaining this scenario proves to be challenging. Instead, the possible scenario entails the continued accumulation of dissatisfaction and ongoing social protests, which will pose a significant challenge to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Protests will be characterized by increased violence, potentially leading the political system to adopt a hard approach in suppressing and managing social unrest. This, in turn, may exacerbate radicalism and further fuel social dissatisfaction. The probable scenario, characterized by intermittent and costly protests as well as civil disobedience, presents an alternative outlook for the future of social dissatisfaction. In this scenario, social dissatisfaction manifests itself through intermittent protests that occur at various intervals and in response to specific events. As social dissatisfaction continues to evolve and persist, some citizens may resort to civil disobedience and divergence from official values and norms.
International Relations
Marjan Badiee Azandahi; Farzin Zandi; Kyomars Yazdanpanah
Abstract
Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. ...
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Introduction In today’s geopolitical competitions, the intricate and innovative concept of gray zone represents a military approach based on geopolitical advantages. Within this strategy, the primary objective is to secure control over desired territories and advance security interests in the conflict. Scholars in this field believe that countries such as Russia, China, and Iran have successfully employed tools and tactics within this concept, enabling them to pursue their security and political interests without triggering major power sensitivities. In this regard, the escalating intensification of geopolitical rivalries in Southwestern Asia, especially between Iran and regional and extra-regional countries, has become a significant challenge when it comes to ensuring security in this area. Adopting the security-for-all-or-no-one approach, Iran aims to establish superiority in its geopolitical rivalry with the United States, the most prominent external actor in this field. Since 2003 and the aftermath of the Iraq war, Iran has introduced a novel strategy in its geopolitical approach. In this respect, the present study aimed to elaborate on the concept of gray zone and highlight its key components as influential variables in Iran’s geopolitical strategy. Materials and MethodsAs an applied study, the present research employed a comparative descriptive–analytical approach. The data collection method involved a combination of library research and computer-assisted techniques.Results and DiscussionAs containment measures against Iran intensify due to the US unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), there have been increasing efforts to neutralize Iran’s strategies and weaken its regional activities, particularly in the realm of geopolitics of resistance. These developments pose a potential threat to Iran’s national security. It is thus necessary to identify and examine the components of Iran’s geopolitical strategy while considering alternative interpretations. Iran’s geopolitical expansion in the region have prompted the West and its allies to impede Iran’s geopolitical influence by scrutinizing its geopolitical territorialization approach marked by the formation and organization of as well as support for proxy forces, manifested in shaping the political dynamics of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and even in direct confrontations with the West on the Syrian battlefield. In this context, leveraging its historical, geographical, and cultural unity, Iran has successfully mobilized communities throughout Southwest Asia by relying on small non-state groups, and emphasizing commonalities while overlooking divergences. This mobilization effort is gradually expanding its reach from the southern Arabian Peninsula to the shores of the Mediterranean.By examining the interpretations of gray zone and geopolitics of resistance as two key strategies, this research aimed to address the question of how Iran seeks to achieve its desired security and implement its geopolitical strategy in Southwest Asia. The term axis of resistance refers to geographical regions that pursue both ideological and geopolitical objectives. On the other hand, gray zone is not necessarily a geographical representation of a strategy, but rather a number of tactics that employ specific tools to advance geopolitical interests in strategically significant geographical areas.The findings of this study reveal that Iran’s geopolitical rivalry in Southwest Asia, particularly with the United States, has led Iran to develop a distinct geopolitical strategy known as axis of resistance, or according to American scholarship, gray zone. In this strategy, Iran aims to achieve its security objectives by focusing on five key areas (i.e., military, political, economic, informational–narrative, and cultural or religious) and relying on cooperation and support of non-state armed groups in specific countries in the region. In this way, Iran has successfully achieved its objectives by establishing geopolitical corridors and attaining the desired geographical integration in Southwest Asia. This has enabled Iran to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea and establish proximity to Israel. However, unless subnational and national requirements are seriously taken into account, the mentioned security achievements will prove ineffective and temporary. In other words, despite Iran’s expansion of geopolitical territorialization, the erosion of internal capabilities, particularly in the political sphere, coupled with the disruption of Iran’s economic lifelines, will gradually lead to increased challenges in sustaining support for its geopolitical arms.ConclusionWhen examining the objectives, methods, and tools employed by the United States to counter Iran’s gray zone geopolitical strategy, it becomes evident that the US, rather than solely relying on its own capabilities and geopolitical confrontation, has prioritized targeting Iran’s vulnerable points. While countering Iran’s gray zone strategy, the United States has adopted a hybrid approach that encompasses all four primary domains: political, economic, military, and informational. However, America has specifically recognized the political and economic domains as the Achilles heel of Iran’s security, and by extension, of the gray zone strategy. At the same time, the United States is diligently uncovering Iran’s vulnerabilities by restructuring its decision-making processes within the government and military, as well as streamlining bureaucracy to facilitate prompt responsive measures in the gray zone. Through exerting influence and applying pressure on Iran in the aforementioned domains, the United States aims to achieve a goal that surpasses mere neutralization of the gray zone strategy, that is, undermining Iran’s national and territorial security. As a result, America has successfully identified Iran’s vulnerabilities in key military, political, economic, and informational domains. It has thus devised and carried out tactics appropriate for each domain, both within the framework of the US gray zone strategy and through conventional means.
Political economy
Fatemeh Shayan; Mohammad Ali Basiri
Abstract
In the years after the relative domestic stability following the Islamic Revolution of Iran, regional and international issues became the most important concerns of the Iranian politicians. The Iran hostage crisis and the ensuing break in Iran–US relations as well as the Iraqi-imposed war on Iran ...
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In the years after the relative domestic stability following the Islamic Revolution of Iran, regional and international issues became the most important concerns of the Iranian politicians. The Iran hostage crisis and the ensuing break in Iran–US relations as well as the Iraqi-imposed war on Iran during the early years of the formation of the Islamic Revolution practically led to a crisis in Iran’s relations with the Western, Eastern, and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.Later on, some analysts of Iran’s foreign policy pointed to the ideological nature of Iran’s foreign policy, the idealist viewpoint of Iran’s revolutionary leaders, and the attempt to export the Revolution to other countries. The foreign policy of Iran was based on the preference for nations over states in international relations, the emphasis on the political independence in planning and policymaking, on the preference for beliefs over economic and commercial interests in bilateral and multilateral relations, and the importance attached to political justice in the relations between states in international relations.Highlighting the convergence in intra- and extraregional cooperation, recent changes in Iran’s foreign policy have led to the current emphasis on convergence of issues such as expansion of bilateral and multilateral relations, cooperation and good-neighborliness with neighbors (esp. in the Persian Gulf region), and reduction of disputes. This new approach to foreign policy subscribes to the view that Iran has strategic depth due to its geographical and historical location, hence capable of attaining strategic-cum-global significance. For this purpose, it is necessary for Iran to resolve its problems and differences with its neighbors, establish friendly relationships based on good-neighborliness, and prepare the grounds for the convergence of countries by exporting strategic goods, for example, gas export to Oman. Iran–Oman relations in the field of energy can move to a transregional level, leading to the greater convergence and cooperation in the Persian Gulf region and even in the countries such as India and China.This article aims to evaluate one of the most important developments in Iran’s foreign policy in the last decade, that is, the focus on the surrounding regions, including the Persian Gulf, and the look to the East and Asian countries (e.g., India and China) for the purpose of reducing the disputes with neighbors and seeking extensive cooperation with the East concerning the export of natural gas. The main question is, how can Iran’s export of gas to Oman contribute to the expansion of convergence in Iran–Oman relations? The research hypothesis predicts that the expansion of communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas, to Oman) will prepare the ground for enhancing the convergence between the two countries in other fields. The research used Peter McLaughlin’s functional explanation as the method and convergence theory as well as Karl Deutsch’s communications theory as the conceptual frameworks.Considering the economic power and energy in the Persian Gulf region, the analysis indicates that Iran is able to be one of the important sources of income and set gas transit in the region, hence the transit hub of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s gas export to Oman faces challenges and advantages. Regarding the challenges, the enormous investment is required for transporting gas through pipelines over a long distance, which stresses the need to guarantee the gas consumption market and access to a large volume of gas reserves. The dispute between Oman and the UAE over determining the route of the gas pipeline constitutes an important challenge for Iran’s export of gas to Oman. Another challenge is the sanctions through which the US and the Western countries, unable to dominate the energy and resources of Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, tried to oppose Iran. The US has prevented Iran from reaching its desired goals. Despite the challenges, Iran’s gas export to Oman has advantages. For example, the construction of the gas pipeline is beneficial given the fact that Iran is supposed to export 30 million cubic meters gas to Oman and increase this figure to 70 million. This long-term contract enables Iran to achieve between 20 to 30 million dollars of gas revenue.The findings show that the increase in communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas) between the two countries can prepare the ground for increasing exchanges of other goods and services. Exporting gas to Oman is considered as the reason for meeting the country’s energy needs, energy security, and even as the basis for the expansion of the gas pipeline from Oman to India and China—which is the most effective factor for the implementation of Iran’s active foreign policy based on convergence between the countries of the Persian Gulf.
Public policy
Ehsan Eilshahi; Seyed Ataollah Sinaee; Seyed Khodayar Mortazavi
Abstract
Reviewing the history of Iran's development efforts in the past 150 years shows periods of accompanying, or being ahead and behind countries. Japan and South Korea have a clear position in this field. This research examines Iran's development situation in comparison with these two countries in historical ...
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Reviewing the history of Iran's development efforts in the past 150 years shows periods of accompanying, or being ahead and behind countries. Japan and South Korea have a clear position in this field. This research examines Iran's development situation in comparison with these two countries in historical periods (1860-1926 and 1963-2010), within the framework of North, Acemoglu, and Robinson's institutional model. This approach focuses on formal rules, procedures, and organizations to explain the relationship between institutional structures and the success or failure of policies. The main question in this research is that despite the creation of political structure in Iran in the 19th century, compared to the experiences of Japan In the second half of the 19th century and South Korea in the early 20th century, why did the development program in Iran not go well and comprehensive political and economic institutional arrangements were not achieved? The obtained results show that the alignment of the government and the developing nation in Iran has not been successful due to the lack of institutional development.
Goodarzi Mostafa; Ali Monavari; Gholamreza Karimi
Abstract
Messianism is one of the most important concepts in Judaism. The Zionist movement succeeded in establishing a Jewish state in the land of Palestine based on the changes it made to the traditional meaning of this concept. On the other hand, Messianism is the only common concept on which all the various ...
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Messianism is one of the most important concepts in Judaism. The Zionist movement succeeded in establishing a Jewish state in the land of Palestine based on the changes it made to the traditional meaning of this concept. On the other hand, Messianism is the only common concept on which all the various Jewish sects agree. Accordingly, after the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948, Messianism entered into all aspects of Israeli domestic and foreign policies. Also, simultaneously with the Islamic Revolution in Iran, right-wing and religious groups came to power in Israel in 1977 after thirty years. One of the common traits of rightists is that they are Messianic; thus, the variable of Messianism in the foreign policy of Israel towards Iran became an objective factor and appeared in a hostile manner. Therefore, the present article uses the theory of constructivism, which in addition to material issues such as power, also considers immaterial variables such as religion to be important in international relations; it seeks to answer the question of how Jewish Messianism led Israel to pursue a hostile foreign policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abolfazl Ghasemi; Morteza Alavian; Maryam Hosseini
Abstract
Governments in water-based civilizations have been stronger than society due to organizational consolidation, and water and its consumption have caused water to play its essential role in shaping the socio-political relations of nations and human societies. Therefore, the main question of the research ...
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Governments in water-based civilizations have been stronger than society due to organizational consolidation, and water and its consumption have caused water to play its essential role in shaping the socio-political relations of nations and human societies. Therefore, the main question of the research is what are the requirement of state and society interaction in Iran water governance? Findings of the research based on descriptive-analytical method show that the state in Iran due to its ability to penetrate, the ability to regulate social relations and resource allocation has made it stronger than society. Factors that strengthen the state in Iran in the field of water are: port transfer, licensing, water treatment, structural policy, pricing policy, obtaining permits for diversions, increasing population and raising living standards, agricultural and industrial growth, resolving disputes between water applicants, creating economic and socio-cultural incentives. To change water management, we need to change the behavior of state and society in the form of water governance. The strategic implication that should be considered in the interaction of the state and society in the water governance include: Sustainable Behavior Change, National Dialogue, Institutionalization and Creation Efficient and Effective Structure, holistic thinking, attention to the historical and cultural background, social learning, referential of the water governance.
Khalil Sardarnia; Henghameh Alborzi
Abstract
The social and guild protests from 2017 onward are a turning point in Iran because of intrinsically and formal differences with the protests in past. This research has been done by street politics theory and exploration-content analysis method by emphasis a social- guild protesters and viewpoint of expert. ...
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The social and guild protests from 2017 onward are a turning point in Iran because of intrinsically and formal differences with the protests in past. This research has been done by street politics theory and exploration-content analysis method by emphasis a social- guild protesters and viewpoint of expert. The authors try to answer this question: What are the differences between intrinsic and formal past protests the social and guild protests from 2017 onward and the past protests and why have been happened? The main findings of this study follow that: This protest intrinsically have been spontaneous- direct in street, leaderless, innovation in protest tactics, distrust to civic- guild assemblies, serial-continues horizontal relation whit other protests and so on. The information of this study shows that economic, political, social, motivational, environmental and legal variables respectively have been impact on this protest, but the economic variables have been in the most effectives.
afshin rostami; Ali Amiri; hamed abaci
Abstract
Geopolitical developments and events are always among the factors that create geopolitical opportunities and challenges for political actors, and political actors seek to make the most of geopolitical opportunities and eliminate or reduce challenges. The iraq war against iran was one of those events ...
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Geopolitical developments and events are always among the factors that create geopolitical opportunities and challenges for political actors, and political actors seek to make the most of geopolitical opportunities and eliminate or reduce challenges. The iraq war against iran was one of those events that, while creating geopolitical challenges for iran, also provided geopolitical opportunities for it, especially in the eastern mediterranean. As the eastern mediterranean region is considered to be iran's most important sphere of influence today, this article seeks to examine how iraq's imposed war on iran made iran's geopolitical foundations in the region meaningful and how geopolitical opportunities used it.In this article, information has been collected by library and documentary methods and analyzed descriptively-analytically. The results show that the holy defense created geopolitical opportunities for iran in the eastern mediterranean and iran was able to strengthen the foundations of expanding its strategic depth in the eastern mediterranean based on the definition of the geopolitical code of the axis of resistance by using the geopolitical foundations of the eastern mediterranean in the period of the holy defense and become its most important geostrategic region to date.
Reza Khalili; Ghadir Nasri; Salman Dastafshan
Abstract
In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the ...
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In this research, the factors and bases of tendency to Takfiri groups are examined and empirically tested in the southern regions of Kerman province. The research method for collecting data is quantitative in which questionnaire is used to collect the required data. The statistical population of the study consists the citizens of southern regions of Kerman province. The sample size is 384 people using the Cochran formula and the sampling method is randomized population size. The research data are analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics based on SPSS statistical software. The research hypothesis is that synchronization and synergy of the effects of individual, national and transnational factors and bases have increased the tendency to Takfiri groups in the south of Kerman. The findings of the research show that, while there is difference between the individual, national and transnational level factors and bases, there is a positive and significant relationship between those and tendency to Takfiri groups in south of Kerman. The results of regression analysis show that the national level factors have the most significant effect on the tendency to Takfiri groups, and the transnational and individual level factors and bases are in the next category.
Mitra Rahnejhad; Tirdad Taghipoor Javi
Abstract
In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence ...
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In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European Union, both are strategic partners. Given the presence of China and the European Union in the West Asian region, the question arises as to what effect the economic interests of China and the European Union in this region have on Iran's national security? The main hypothesis is: that: Since China and the European Union have no security competition and at the same time both are important economic players in the world; In the context of extensive US sanctions against Iran, the intersection of the interests of these two supra-regional powers in West Asia and its alignment with the interests of Iran's regional rivals will be a challenge to Iran's national security. This article seeks to answer the question of the article with a comparative view, based on the Copenhagen School of Security.
seyedreza mousavinia
Abstract
The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is ...
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The main issue in this article is the introduction, critique and pathology of the extent present model in future research. Future studies are generally limited to studying trends and events identified in the past and present, as well as the development of today's imagination for the future, but it is considered as an unfinished project. Future studies do not entail familiar future, unthoughtful future and genus forecasting in the future cycle. At the same time, competition, complexity, contradiction, turmoil, increasing developments, the growing role of science, and uncertainty are among the main drivers of the future, and limiting future research to the study of current trends, events, and perceptions poses a serious risk. Nonetheless, futures studies provide for the states to make desirable future, and therefore is more advanced than explanatory studies. Our main question is: What is the common pattern in the future study of states behavior in foreign policy and what are the restrictions on it? In response to this hypothesis, the pattern in the future studies of states behavior in foreign policy is extent present, and in this model, the role of familiar future, genius forecasting and unthoughtful future in scenarios making are not clear. The pattern of the extent present will be shown in the future with an example of US sanctions against Iran until 2020. The research method is scenario writing based on the extent present pattern.
Mohammad Aryanmanesh; Ahmad Javanshiri; Mohsen Modirshanechi
Abstract
The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the ...
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The present research was performed to evaluate the Iran-US relationships in 2029 from the Iranian Professors’ point of view. Investigations were perfumed via future studies in two parts: The first part is based on library studies, and the second part is questionnaire-based field surveys, with the acquired data analyzed using MicMac and Scenario Wizard software tools. Based on the results of the analysis in the MicMac software, a total of 20 driver forces for the Iran-US relationships were identified. Considering the driver forces as descriptors of the Iran-US relationships, the most significant driver forces were found to be the government institutions context followed by the relationship-interfering countries, the role of the two countries’ leaders, future of the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capabilities and missile program of Iran, the role of geography, and historical records of the relationships between the two countries. Based on the outputs of the Scenario Wizard software, five scenarios were identified, including highly favorable, favorable, moderate, unfavorable, and highly unfavorable, with the development of the Iran-US relationships under the moderate scenario being highly probable.
Mahdi Abdollahi Ziyaedini; ALi Morshedi Zad
Abstract
The main issue of the present research is to explain the causes of the emergence of ethnic political actions in different status of governance in Iran with an emphasis on the dialectic of democracy and development, while the required mood of interaction between the state and ethnicities has been identified. ...
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The main issue of the present research is to explain the causes of the emergence of ethnic political actions in different status of governance in Iran with an emphasis on the dialectic of democracy and development, while the required mood of interaction between the state and ethnicities has been identified. The research method is a qualitative comparative-historical that is used in the theoretical framework of Charles Tilly's social movements to explain two democracy and developmental components.
As a result of the research, the era before the Islamic Revolution was non-democratic state with low development capacity because of Assimilation and the early years of the revolution is democratic capacity with a low capacity because of tolerant approach. In the final stages of the war, Sazandegi, the ninth and tenth governments and the Etedal, the capacity of the government has risen, because of the necessity of the development of infrastructure, and the improvement of the economic and social situation but the level of democracy has diminished because of security and countering Separatism. Finally, the era of Eslahat is seen as an optimal state of a democratic state with a high development potential.
ali bagheri dolatabadi
Abstract
The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran has had widespread reflections in the region and in the world. Despite the fact that the greatest impact of the Islamic Revolution took place in the region and in Iran's neighbors, some evidence implying that the extent of the impact of the Iranian revolution ...
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The victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran has had widespread reflections in the region and in the world. Despite the fact that the greatest impact of the Islamic Revolution took place in the region and in Iran's neighbors, some evidence implying that the extent of the impact of the Iranian revolution on Central Asia countries has been limited. This research seeks to answer the question why the Islamic Revolution failed to have an outstanding effect on the region? The hypothesis of the research points to the existence of problems in the political structure of the Central Asian countries in accepting the revolution, as well as the problems inside Iran to export the revolution. For this purpose, causative method and diffusion theory have been used. The findings of the research show that Some problems in the Origin and destination of the diffusion, including the lack of proper attention of Iran to the region of Central Asia, the pragmatic approach of Iran's foreign policy, the existence of authoritarian governments in the above region, the existence of regional and transnational rivals and etc. have been the most important reasons for Iran's failure to export its revolution to the central Asian countries.
rohollah eslami; reza sarhadi; mehdi feizi
Abstract
Border Rivers, as one of the most important natural terrain, are always the source of many differences in relations between states. The Hirmand River is the main artery of the Hamoon Lake, the borderline between Iran and Afghanistan, which has caused many border controversies between the two countries ...
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Border Rivers, as one of the most important natural terrain, are always the source of many differences in relations between states. The Hirmand River is the main artery of the Hamoon Lake, the borderline between Iran and Afghanistan, which has caused many border controversies between the two countries to this day. Failure of Afghanistan's to adhere to 1973 agreement to provide the water right of the Hirmand River, and hence the land of Hamoon, as a lake that Sistan's life is dependent on, has exacerbated the increasing challenges in the Sistan region. There has been a lot of negotiation between Iran and Afghanistan. Authors intend to answer the question of what are the strategies of diplomacy for providing the water right to the Hirmand River between Iran and Afghanistan. In the framework of game theory, in the first stage, the Hirmand Water Crisis should be considered as an important priority in the field of Iranian policy. Then, in the process of negotiations between Iran and Afghanistan based on diplomacy, the rationality of actors, Afghanistan’s access to the Chabahar port and the provision of the Hirmand water right as the point of equilibrium and the best option for both countries.
Ebrahim Abbassi; Shabnam Akbari
Abstract
The immigration is an important subject in the world and the Middle East. This subject has been affected economic, social and political factors. The main question of this research is why Iranians immigrants move to Kuwait and how could affect the political, social and economic relations between two countries? ...
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The immigration is an important subject in the world and the Middle East. This subject has been affected economic, social and political factors. The main question of this research is why Iranians immigrants move to Kuwait and how could affect the political, social and economic relations between two countries? Hypothesis of this research is that we can explain the causes of immigration on the basis of two theories: the theory of attraction and repulsion and model of cost-benefit. The variables in the national, regional and international levels explain the trends of immigrations of Iranians to Kuwait including: Petrol, Islamic Revolution, the Persian Gulf War, Relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia and etc. Research findings show Iranian immigrants are important minority in this country. But governments of two countries couldn’t have a share from this potential in extension of their relations. The causes of them are on vision of Kuwait government to immigrants as stranger, be Shia most of them and not pay attention of Iran government to them and their economical vision for business. The research with analytic and descriptive method try to study why and effect of immigration and Iranian immigrants on relations between Iran and Kuwait.
Vahid RanjbarHeydari; Arsalan Ghorbani; Reza Simbar; Ebrahim Hajiani
Abstract
The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 ...
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The Persian Gulf is one of the world's premier geographical areas. This region includes the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus Iran and Iraq. The study seeks to answer the question of which scenarios will be the future of the relationship between Iran and the Cooperation Council at 1404 horizons. The present study uses 5methods of futuristic research, namely, cross-impact analysis, 5 key factors; the attitude of the rulers of Iran and the Cooperation Council countries towards each other; increasing the arms and military rivalry of the member states of the Council and Iran with the aim of hegemony in The region, fears of the Shiite Crescent Celestial Theory and the Centenary Revolutionary Guards have been identified with the aim of confronting Iran and identity differences, the future of Syria, Iraq, Yemen on the relationship between Iran and the future of Iran's nuclear program. These proxies were used as the underlying factors in the Scenarios program. Finally, with multiple analyzes, including a panel of experts, out of 128 possible scenarios, 4 possible scenarios were identified: war boats, warships, passenger ships, and shipwreck. Eventually, the scenario of Warship identified as a probable scenario with a high probability of introducing the passenger ship's scenario as a preferred and desirable scenario for Iran.
ghasem misaei; faez dinparast; abas taghipoor
Abstract
This article studies the position of the political development in the Islamic Republic of Iran development programs. Development is a general concept and indivisible, in this article its political section is considered and the following question is studied: what is the position of the political development ...
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This article studies the position of the political development in the Islamic Republic of Iran development programs. Development is a general concept and indivisible, in this article its political section is considered and the following question is studied: what is the position of the political development in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth programs? In order to answer to this question, context analysis is used and development programs are selected as background. The findings of the research indicate that the political development in four development programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been considered. However, the amount of attention in each of the four programs was different. This amount of attention in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth programs is 31 Percent, 50 Percent, 29 Percent, and 43 Percent respectively. According to statistics, there is an increasing amount of attention to the political development in development plans, with the exception that this focus in the fifth and sixth programs have decreased compared to the other two programs.
mahdieh heydari; HOSSIEN DAHESHIAR
Abstract
The most serious threat that is perceived by each of the carriers involved in the crisis in an international crisis is "the threat of their fundamental values." Through an analytical descriptive method, this paper seeks to understand why Iran's direct violence to manage crises Syria. So the main question ...
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The most serious threat that is perceived by each of the carriers involved in the crisis in an international crisis is "the threat of their fundamental values." Through an analytical descriptive method, this paper seeks to understand why Iran's direct violence to manage crises Syria. So the main question of the research is why Iran is using maximum violence to manage the Syrian crisis? The temporary response is that Iran has used the highest levels of violence to manage the crisis on the basis of the perception of the threat to its fundamental values in the Syrian crisis. In this study, using Stanford's model of crisis management, we conclude that the perception of the threat to Iran's fundamental values in the Syrian crisis that threatens Iran's territorial integrity, its strategic depth, the threat of the collapse of the resistance axis, and, ultimately, the imbalance of ideology in area in the Syrian crisis has called for a violent response from Iran. The data collection and information collection in this study is based on a library method that includes the use of internal books and articles and foreign, publications and press and internet sites are valid.
